Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[SMU]

The 216 Chart keeps piling the snow into the UK

Just waiting for the trough to drop from iceland

Edited January 17, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Ice Day]

Running out of superlatives now...... 216 is looking superb

 

[Derecho]

Will be a few snow showers from this I reckon...

[Ali1977]

The hammer is dropped on the 216, beast time. 

Welcome to Narnia 

[nick sussex]

I will on a rare occasion talk about my location .

That ECM day 8 is exceptional for here , Northern Med low and a strong ne flow into sw France .

Okay that’s it !

 

[ICE COLD]

Are we gonna get are own uk nor’easter at day 9 ??? 

Yes we bloody are

[weirpig]

I shudder  what the windchill will feel like  snow piling in.

[East801]

Running out of words for the ECM run- surely the chart of the winter at 216! Winter....we’ve missed you...welcome

[I remember Atlantic 252]

better than 'that' EC', I reckon on 5 Dec '12

[edinburgh_1992]

3 minutes ago, southbank said:

Surely the record snowfall in southern German /Austria may play a part in temps at the surface as air circulates around the low ?

Not only, most of Central and Eastern Europe is snowed under at the moment. It would certainly help if we manage to get an easterly

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

ensembles GEM 12z

    

 

ensemble NAEFS 12z

144h   180h   240h   end of the run  

GEFS

 

A truly fascinating spell coming up with the will it / wont it easterly / slider scenario, it looks like the key area that will help aid the chances of getting the easterly will be the area of above average heights which looks like they will come from a ridge in the Atlantic, head up to our north behind the low as it drops to the south and possibly head toward scandi.

[That ECM]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

better than 'that' EC', I reckon on 5 Dec '12

If it delivers unlike my name sake

[nick sussex]

As long as you keep that deep low in the northern Med then any model trying to bring less cold conditions to the UK will be wrong .

The strongest correlation for cold into the UK is that low .

[phil nw.]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I will on a rare occasion talk about my location .

That ECM day 8 is exceptional for here , Northern Med low and a strong ne flow into sw France .

Okay that’s it !

 

Yes the old Genoa low Nick often a vital part of the Easterly set up.I would like to see a stronger Scandi high if i was being picky,but it's pretty good even if it verified like that.Very cold with plenty of snow chances.

[smith25]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

better than 'that' EC', I reckon on 5 Dec '12

Now you've done it!! you had to mention " That ECM" .. you've damned this entire cold spell!

 

 

[kold weather]

Well the 12z ECM keeps up on its own theme, the other models have definitely moved towards the flatter solution but the ECM is a very stubborn model and is exceptional when it comes to these set-ups. Even so, the king ECM can and has got these things wrong at this range.

The great thing is I think most paths lead to cold and probable snow set-ups one way or the other, its just how long it takes to get there and just how deep does the cold go.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I will on a rare occasion talk about my location .

That ECM day 8 is exceptional for here , Northern Med low and a strong ne flow into sw France .

Okay that’s it !

 

I'm sick of your IMBYism Nick! 

 

Jacakanackanory! 

[nick sussex]

Just now, phil nw. said:

Yes the old Genoa low Nick often a vital part of the Easterly set up.I would like to see a stronger Scandi high if i was being picky,but it's pretty good even if it verified like that.Very cold with plenty of snow chances.

Yes great stuff from the ECM so far . I might start having to stock pile soon!  

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

8 minutes ago, southbank said:

Surely the record snowfall in southern German /Austria may play a part in temps at the surface as air circulates around the low ?

They are going to be buried big style with that stagnant cold low hovering over them for days. 

[Ice Day]

Cold cold cold at 240, easterly running out of juice but awaiting the next attack from the North West

 

[Nick F]

Panic over for now, the 12z EC has clean separation of the Euro trough from upper westerlies near Greenland after early-mid week disruption and BOOM!

ECMWF high res gets 10/10, GFS op 6/10, UKMO 4/10 from me.

 

[Dbarb]

Me a ring the slight north easterly component and remembering unless the flow comes directly from the east or south east I get sod all like last year lol.

[Froze were the Days]

Slight similarities with the gfs 6z run after 168/192 other than somewhat of a flatter pattern to the north at 240... the cold quicker to get on this ecm 12z run though.

[nick sussex]

Atlantic bog off !

Forget it , it’s desperately trying to move in and throws an ugly PV at us but still not managing it because of low pressure over southern Europe.

[gottolovethisweather]

On 12/01/2019 at 19:41, gottolovethisweather said:

I believe an Easterly is on the cards myself, and next week's mid to long-range outputs will regularly suggest such options, as per my post from earlier. My advice to all newbies and those learning the meteorology game is to watch the ensembles spreads and the snow symbols ever so carefully and look for steady rises in snow chance percentages.

I've been a tad too busy to catch up with this thread but will look now, but is my option above still on the cards. Likewise, I need to hear a BBC long-ranger for once, with immediate wintry prospects a bit meh, surely next week into the end of January will deliver snowy scenes?

Edited January 17, 2019 by gottolovethisweather