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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted
14 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Absolutely! Tonight’s ECM has no effect on the weather whatsoever!

Jesus H! Not what I was saying at all!  A straw man argument if ever there was one! This is a model discussion thread...

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snowice Seasoned

snowice

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Posted
3 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

 

image.png

That doesn't match the output take with pinch of salt! 

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Have to say, latest ECM looking like a classic troposphere response to SSW - heights magically lowering to the north between T96 and T144. 

Do you mean heights rising?

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
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Posted

Rushed back from work (kept a beady eye on events) to be met with this at 168 .... Wallop!

 image.thumb.png.20970c61b2606847c8516615f5088417.png image.thumb.png.a0d59b3e8e11f5cef04f84bedfa18233.png

It was worth the rush. 

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
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Posted (edited)

Promising ECM T168

2101921784_ECH1-168(1).thumb.gif.177931630fa08933b26c069165bdf4f7.gif

 

even better than yesterday's at the same date.heights little stronger towards Svalbard,should help to bring in the cold stronger from the east.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by phil nw.
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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
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Posted

PHEW MASSIVE SIGH OF RELIEF FROM ME. Talk about feeling nervous. Yes some may feel that is sad . 

Lovely T168 

D2141E5D-B998-4CAD-B7ED-9EFB61F0C205.png

BD947381-D830-4A78-A3E8-52AD530D7C42.png

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes of course- but for those with memories like finding Nemo, do we just erase the GFS performance this week- Where have they all ended up- bang on the ECM doorstep... ( & UKMO )

144 fab- very cold at the surface over the UK - Tuesdays snow event looking quite widespread

** Also anyone got the weather US snow for ECM Sat AM - looks good for the midlands & the South **

Also i get where your coming from cos latest hirlam has snow of up to 9cms for central england tomorrow night lol!

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East801 Apprentice

East801

Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
Posted
On 14/01/2019 at 08:09, Daniel Smith said:

UKMO/ECM/GEM all slide the low. Hell, even the FAX charts produced by the Met Office are sliding the low. 

The GFS is a step closer to sliding on the 00z but still doesn’t manage it, bizzare! Anybody still think the GFS is right?

 

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Very very nice at 192.  Deep cold tantalisingly close now.

image.thumb.png.d94be2263ccc32699167897f63d597c6.png

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
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Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You little ripper!!!!!!

image.thumb.png.bede203d1a7f654da1771e98a9fafda2.png

What a chart for my Nan's 94th b'day!!!!!!!!

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I suspect also your location would have much to do with what you want, Euro troughing often leads to a southerly quad to the wind which kills us further south, good for Midlands north. Not to say you cant get snow in those setups further south, but it's always going to be more marginal and prone to going the wrong way unless you really do have a Rock solid cold pool aloft OR good surface cold already in place.

Plenty of good looking ensemble runs for snow though especially the more north you are 

I'm in Somerset so no imby bias here! Trough to the south makes it very difficult to have either a westerly or southerly element to the feed so marginality then works in favour of wintry precipitation. Big trough big block would be the ideal but we too often focus only on the block perhaps.

Anyway all good and I'm expecting ECM to be good again too.

Edited by Catacol
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Tristrame Apprentice

Tristrame

Posted
  • Location: Arklow on the East coast of Ireland
  • Location: Arklow on the East coast of Ireland
Posted (edited)

NWS have the GFS and Gefs as outliers compared to the rest of the guidance on the esb storm in their forecast for the new York area late weekend

Here's what they say :

 

"This has led to a consensus of a colder solution and a track of the low further south and east than the previous forecast package. Dprog/dt on the recent deterministic runs shows this general trend well except the GFS/gefs which appear to be an outlier solution and remain much warmer than the rest of the guidance. The main energy with the southern stream wave will be coming onshore today. There is also sensitivity as noted above with the how much the polar jet interacts and phases with the southern stream, so changes in track forecast are still possible in subsequent forecast packages."

Edited by Tristrame
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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the only chart i can find that is close to ec day 7 at the same timescale is ec day 8 from yesterday ……...

Yep a little better if anything Blue .The wedge towards Svalbard building nicely.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the only chart i can find that is close to ec day 7 at the same timescale is ec day 8 from yesterday ……...

Is this run in your A3 envelope? i know its probably at one end of it.

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Tristrame said:

NWS have the GFS and Gefs as outliers compared to the rest of the guidance on the esb storm in their forecast for the new York area late weekend

Here's what they say :

 

"This has led to a consensus of a colder solution and a track of the low further south and east than the previous forecast package. Dprog/dt on the recent deterministic runs shows this general trend well except the GFS/gefs which appear to be an outlier solution and remain much warmer than the rest of the guidance. The main energy with the southern stream wave will be coming onshore today. There is also sensitivity as noted above with the how much the polar jet interacts and phases with the southern stream, so changes in track forecast are still possible in subsequent forecast packages."

FYI they may as well copy & pasted the same paragraph from their sentiments in summer....

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
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Posted
Just now, phil nw. said:

Yep a little better if anything Blue .The wedge towards Svalbard building nicely.

--and up she goes

ECH1-192.thumb.gif.92dc8c83708d328b56a0dedf7efcbb00.gif

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East801 Apprentice

East801

Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
Posted
On 14/01/2019 at 08:09, Daniel Smith said:

UKMO/ECM/GEM all slide the low. Hell, even the FAX charts produced by the Met Office are sliding the low. 

The GFS is a step closer to sliding on the 00z but still doesn’t manage it, bizzare! Anybody still think the GFS is right?

 

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