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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
9 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Couldn't agree more. We need perhaps to alter our mindset and instead of constantly hunting the high lat block be prepared also to hunt the Euro trough. In effect they mean the same thing....except, as I said the other day, a deep Euro trough means snow whereas a block can mean dry.

Long live the Euro Trough.

Yeah, of course it makes things far more marginal due to the airflow source and warm sectors, etc.

I suspect also your location would have much to do with what you want, Euro troughing often leads to a southerly quad to the wind which kills us further south, good for Midlands north. Not to say you cant get snow in those setups further south, but it's always going to be more marginal and prone to going the wrong way unless you really do have a Rock solid cold pool aloft OR good surface cold already in place.

Plenty of good looking ensemble runs for snow though especially the more north you are 

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

 

But you & many others miss the point...

If you think that the GFS & ECM are an equal here then you have the wrong starting position- The GFS V the ECM in the area of the globe where it fails the most V the ECM

it has nothing to do with a model controlling the weather-

An even bigger point here is that while they may not control the weather, at some point they have to come on board if a cold / snow event is going to happen, the day when the whole synoptic pattern could be wrong at T24, was about 60 years ago - before they had computers.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T144, I think it is going to hold it's ground here!

image.thumb.jpg.d16aed6c428fc847ca883927fe3b190b.jpg

Link up with the heights to the north?

Has great potential for longevity if it can tap into those heights - and some serious cold. 

 

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

The 12z GFS swingometer remains extremely uncertain for January 25th, a lot more mild runs in the most recent set. Just as a colder consensus was emerging this morning!

image.thumb.png.d5dce0ea542be346719a4ec23cd3d22e.png

For the end of January the number of blocked runs remains similar however

image.thumb.png.12f21c517347fb27360fb84240d12267.png

That diving trough is playing absolute havoc at the moment!

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

All those of us who don't believe computer-models control (or even influence) the weather, in any way, shape or form, I suppose?

I think I know what you're saying but can't be sure... Hopefully you're not saying just look out the window or rely on a modern day Bill Foggitt?

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes of course- but for those with memories like finding Nemo, do we just erase the GFS performance this week- Where have they all ended up- bang on the ECM doorstep... ( & UKMO )

144 fab- very cold at the surface over the UK - Tuesdays snow event looking quite widespread

** Also anyone got the weather US snow for ECM Sat AM - looks good for the midlands & the South **

 

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes of course- but for those with memories like finding Nemo, do we just erase the GFS performance this week- Where have they all ended up- bang on the ECM doorstep... ( & UKMO )

144 fab- very cold at the surface over the UK - Tuesdays snow event looking quite widespread

** Also anyone got the weather US snow for ECM Sat AM - looks good for the midlands & the South **

Are you talkin bout this saturday cos ecm was showing a significant event for midlands for tomorrow on yesterdays 12z!!

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

** Also anyone got the weather US snow for ECM Sat AM - looks good for the midlands & the South **

 

D9F7EC08-8D44-426A-9C47-26B16C5A142E.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes of course- but for those with memories like finding Nemo, do we just erase the GFS performance this week- Where have they all ended up- bang on the ECM doorstep... ( & UKMO )

144 fab- very cold at the surface over the UK - Tuesdays snow event looking quite widespread

** Also anyone got the weather US snow for ECM Sat AM - looks good for the midlands & the South **

Not much snow from the front on ec op raw data - DP's too high as the front comes through (and weakens as it does so). plenty to be resolved yet

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

ECH1-168.GIF?17-0

 

Get's connected....good

Edited by Vikos
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, northwestsnow said:

EC looks a corker..

However, chalk and cheese to UKMO at 144..

No cross model consensus still..

UKMO looks washed out upstream , it’s done this before . Flatter and doesn’t develop the Pacific shortwave over the central ne USA.

Too much energy spills east at day 6 , the ECM develops the low sw of Greenland into one feature.

I thought it was garbage earlier and still think the UKMO has got this wrong.

But we do need it onside.

Lets hope for less drama in the morning !

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Posted
  • Location: Ipswich, Suffolk 72asl
  • Location: Ipswich, Suffolk 72asl
Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168, the lady is not for turning!

image.thumb.jpg.83381d6351d0d9bcb41471928971b103.jpg

Oh yes, the low exiting the US disrupts, the trough drops and the two highs link up... boom! 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes of course- but for those with memories like finding Nemo, do we just erase the GFS performance this week- Where have they all ended up- bang on the ECM doorstep... ( & UKMO )

144 fab- very cold at the surface over the UK - Tuesdays snow event looking quite widespread

** Also anyone got the weather US snow for ECM Sat AM - looks good for the midlands & the South **

Negligible.

https://meteologix.com/ie/model-charts/euro/great-britain/snow-depth/20190119-1400z.html

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