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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Run it on just a couple of frames and see how it all sinks South, its better than you are portraying 

??

1.thumb.png.dc1a856b4bbe0a41c34a589a2e7a09e5.png2.thumb.png.b696aed567ffb4b9f7d0c4de7ad05494.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, IDO said:

Yes quite, the music is about to stop for that important synoptic chance after D5, so any movement one way or other will be uplifting or downbeat. Not really what we want so close to the event are downgrades? The wedge of heights towards the NE would have been a nice filler before the Pacific amplification rather than back to a PM zonal take.

As people say we will get there in the end and another false dawn is at least compensated with snow chances early next week.

Yes - that's the point - where there are massive uncertainties in the short range, thats more crucial, Where as the Greeny high in FI potential, really could not show for another 10 runs of all models and it would still have a chance, if this slider is too far East and the ridge behind it is flatter and no decent Easterly is showing by the end of tomorrow, it is game over for that particular Easterly, with the persistent trough to the south yes im sure more chances will come as GP said, but that one will have gone - indisputable fact.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
24 minutes ago, IDO said:

The GFSp is not great, pattern too far east, very little wedge development and thus a flatter pattern likely:

gfs-0-144.thumb.png.03d8a85171735c21467ef9a947a4e455.png

image.thumb.png.ce438a2769faf16fae0c3859d3cf3b0b.png

image.thumb.png.af8118eb8704eac608eb5969f862339e.png

Likely or not its an excellent run..

And very snowy..

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The latest from NCEP short term discussion .

Their preferred blend for the central and eastern Conus is the ECM 00hrs and NAM 12 hrs early on adding in a bit of the GFS 12hrs later .

Thats for today till midnight Monday.

The caveat here is that it’s the lunchtime update , there will be a further one after tonights ECM.

In terms of tonights UKMO no mention of the 12 hrs yet .

The ECM 00hrs run was the closest to the ensemble means . They have seen a bit more speed to the upstream pattern but there’s still uncertainty and even allowing for that the UKMO still looks dubious IMO between day 4 and 5.

Anyway we await the ECM verdict !

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.ce438a2769faf16fae0c3859d3cf3b0b.png

image.thumb.png.af8118eb8704eac608eb5969f862339e.png

Likely or not its an excellent run..

And very snowy..

That is a general hope, the flatter pattern will receive a second chance of diving lows into the Euro trough after D10.

I was talking about post D5, getting some wedges into the flow and having a colder blocked 5-7 days before that second shot.

Your right, both the op and control in FI are consistent with that pattern and that can only be good...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - that's the point - where there are massive uncertainties in the short range, thats more crucial, Where as the Greeny high in FI potential, really could not show for another 10 runs of all models and it would still have a chance, if this slider is too far East and the ridge behind it is flatter and no decent Easterly is showing by the end of tomorrow, it is game over for that particular Easterly, with the persistent trough to the south yes im sure more chances will come as GP said, but that one will have gone - indisputable fact.

There are no indisputable facts which is why statements like "downgrade" or "upgrade" in are meaningless in isolation. It's all probability on deterministic models, and although probability increases as you get closer to T0, it doesn't always increase at the same rate. That is why you cannot say that one run or another will definitely "nail a pattern".

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
12 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Run it on just a couple of frames and see how it all sinks South, its better than you are portraying 

Indeed ...GFSp gets there in the end. Trouble is this model viewing malarkey is a bit like chasing pots of gold at the end of rainbows...

36BDDA0A-6ED8-4669-8DB4-C086075EF4EB.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
23 minutes ago, Paul said:

No runs are 'important' at the moment, as there's so much flux run to run. The ecm tonight may be amazing for cold/snow, then the 00z tomorrow may be totally different, and vice versa. I'd not be judging any single run from any model at any more than face value right now.

I think the point has been made that we now see "as modelled "the likelihood of a trough to our S/E which is going to be fed by sister vortex.

How long it's fed is the question?

The longer it stays in situ the colder the air becomes entrenched. I don't think getting the v cold is a drawn out thing either.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Decent enough 12z para run, not as snowy as the 06z para as we get a more straight flow from the NW as the upper low dives down. Still plenty of snow for Midlands north though (rain for south initially).

All variations of a very cold theme

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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
18 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

still a very good run from GFS

I did not expect to be driving through a heavy snow shower this morning either! That was not forecasted at all. So let’s watch these next few days actually out of the window/garden, as some surprises could crop up! If timings are decent, then a lot of us could wake up to snow on the weekend. 

Sorry, that's fake news. The fleeting snow had been predicted for several days. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Comparing today with yesterday GFS 12z for 22nd Jan.

gfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.9b6614b720ba2baa73b346750075b31a.png423462373_gfsnh-0-144(1).thumb.png.bf2c8f3f8fc9eaae1f690d4683dfab19.png

So much model uncertainty so looking nearer time very little change on those.

We look at day 5 on today;s UKMO

UN120-21.thumb.gif.2007571b00268cd748310ab5304dc481.gif

Same trend,cold,trough heading se across the UK and still a little wedge of heights over to our ne -Scandinavia.After that?well we know details will change.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The closer you get to the slider, the more that will have been resolved upstream,so you are at the point where it must get sorted soon, so over the next day, the runs will get more important as we go along, if the Easterly does happen or even if it doesn't, obviously what happens afterwards will be FI for a good few days yet, so that isn't as crucial.

True but at 5 days even, details are still elusive to change. I think the main trends for the UK are there in that we will see initially a chilly NW'ly airflow with a trough/low pressure system heading through the UK on a SE'ly track which may bring a risk of snowfall although far from certain as positioning, timing and how much cold air is mixed in will play a big role in all this. As this low clears into Europe it may pull in an easterly of some sort but the big question will be just how much amplification and blocking we will have by that point is open to alot of doubt

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Decent enough 12z para run, not as snowy as the 06z para as we get a more straight flow from the NW as the upper low dives down. Still plenty of snow for Midlands north though (rain for south initially).

and within the envelope …… we want one of those tiny little pay packet size things but we still have a bloody A3 !

was hoping that tomorrows 12z's would be firmed up on next week but unless we see all the 00z runs on the same page for next Tuesday/Wednesday, that's unlikely to be resolved until Saturdays 12z output. 

upstream looks difficult to resolve and the arctic ridging is being particularly evasive to pin down ………..wedges have always been tough to get consistency on above T96 so its no surprise to see it failing to come together. 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
1 minute ago, Steve C said:

Sorry, that's fake news. The fleeting snow had been predicted for several days. 

Yep, that line of snow showers this morning was very well forecast. Euro4 had it arriving Arnold My location at 8am this morning 48hrs out and it was bang on Q 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
22 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

This point has been argued for years - a certain run is described as "critical", "crucial", "important" or whatever, when, in fact, scientifically, they're identical in terms of importance.

You're right enough, Chris; and on a more fundamental level, we are all here discussing only models and what models suggest...The actual weather, meanwhile, will just do whatever it does: make tits out of all of us?:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

All these comments about the ECM not being important tonight - are fundamentally incorrect.

Although I would add its the ECM + Mean thats important

Why ? ( some of you scream )

Because of 1 simple reason, its track record over the GFS on US east coast storm tracks.

It knocked the GFS for six this summer for hurricane tracks inc the storm that went into the Carolinas -

So if the ECM persists with its inward track of the storm rather than the flatter 'sweep' out to sea then theres a high probability that its correct..

The only caveat is the UKMO, since 2012 when it called it correct I will never throw 100% behind a solution unless UKMO is there.

UKMO tonight is very snowy 120-144, the UK thickness charts are aub 526 DAM & the slider will bring snow like the ICON-

Its amplification signal is slightly weaker but alligns enough ridge to assume 'any' solution is possible for day 7...

Eyes down for the ECM... Especially 120 Tues-----

Tuesday is the peak probability snow day-

Who's saying the ECM isn't important?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, Steve C said:

Who's saying the ECM isn't important?

All those of us who don't believe computer-models control (or even influence) the weather, in any way, shape or form, I suppose?:search:

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

All those of us who don't believe computer-models control (or even influence) the weather, in any way, shape or form, I suppose?:search:

Absolutely! Tonight’s ECM has no effect on the weather whatsoever!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Fascinating model output today, will share my thoughts on all the output later, but ECM run is more important now, T120:

image.thumb.jpg.29a9fca67ff71e4605e698d96727aa8a.jpg

Looks better than UKMO to me, US low sharper and further west

Edited by Mike Poole
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