Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[shaky]

Expect the ecm to go further east later!!!i dont think it shall be as bad as the para or icon though°!!

[frosty ground]

Still have heights in a favourable position thou

[Weathizard]

Well the GFS looks fine to me, not sure what people are looking at must be looking at a different run  

[Guest]

1 minute ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Not according to the charts i'm afraid. Appears to be non accumulating sleet/wet snow

Any snow on the day will be a nowcast event anyway so take those charts with an enormous pinch of salt, whether they show nowt or snowmageddon tbh.

[kold weather]

A little closer to the mark but the broad setup from the GFS IS still very different from the ICON.

Maybe HP over the UK this run but we will see.

[Leo97t]

GFS still looking fine. I genuinely wonder how people jump to some of these conclusions some times. Still lots of time for things to change on the UKMO. Most important thing is:

KEEP ECM ON OUR SIDE

[seabreeze86]

What going in here the GFS is nothing like the ICON 

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Oh dear..

Not the greatest of UKMO charts it has to be said.

It's not the worst though. The pattern is still amplified and suspect another lobe of PV will be ejected SE into the euro trough. Whilst it might delay an Easterly, there is still plenty snow opportunities there.

[P-M]

So basically there's been downgrades this morning followed by upgrades then followed again by perceived downgrades?

All in all typical model run variances - surely there's room for it to upgrade again or am I hopecasting here?

GFS shows some great potential for next week so I'm going to remain cautious but optimistic.  

Nick S- PM me the helpline number please as a back up.  

[Dancerwithwings]

17 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Still that magic number 10 days away!! That won’t verify like that I’m afraid

Yes that’s 10 D away ,,,,,But ah! next Tuesday might

EDIT..The potential nextweek is looking good for winter to finally hit the UK 

Edited January 17, 2019 by Dancerwithwings

[Met4Cast]

4 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

GFS still looking fine. I genuinely wonder how people jump to some of these conclusions some times. Still lots of time for things to change on the UKMO. Most important thing is:

KEEP ECM ON OUR SIDE

Here's why.

The storm over the USA is further East and moves into the Atlantic faster, as per ICON and GFS Para which is why they both end up being flat 

6z

12z

The entire amplification is dependant on that storm NOT coming East so fast. UKMO has it further East and as a result the high doesn't amplify enough to "topple" towards Scandinavia which then forces low heights South into Europe and thus, Easterly. 

Instead, the high topples to the W/SW of the UK and we see Westerlies.

GFS is better than the UKMO but it's not as good as this mornings. Having said that, with the GFS performance of late it wouldn't be a huge surprise if it takes a month to catch onto the change in pattern. So in short, next week remains ?????

Edited January 17, 2019 by Daniel Smith

[Skullzrulerz]

Man it's so confusing in here it's unbelievable ? Is this a downgrade/upgrade ????

[SMU]

Still an awsome chart ... GFS 144 

Evaporational cooling & high pressures linking up

 

Plus ( Third time of highlighting ) All snow for the SE from the Icon

 

[shaky]

Gfs briilliant at 144 hours and looks like 00z run!!easterly setting in!!

[Lampostwatcher]

Absolutely nothing wrong with gfs and ukmo atm 

and those precipitation charts are as useful as a chocolate tea pot or a glass hammer

[markw2680]

What is it with people on here it’s another run with a different outcome for weather next week!! It’s goig to change again next run and as regards to snow Tuesday it’s next week there’s the rest of this week and weekend before we get to Tuesday lol. Talk about over analysing everything

[frosty ground]

It actually looks better than the 06z

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Man it's so confusing in here it's unbelievable ? Is this a downgrade/upgrade ????

Its as you were..without the perhaps once in a lifetime 6z..

All very very decent though...

Edited January 17, 2019 by tight isobar

[Met4Cast]

GFS just about makes it

We really don't want to see the trend for the storm being further East to continue, GFS 12z is about the Eastern limit before the pattern collapses

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Man it's so confusing in here it's unbelievable ? Is this a downgrade/upgrade ????

12z GFS is a downgrade if your looking for a strong easterly, but it's not a bad run and still on the cold side.

[Singularity]

 

That trough off N. America makes all the difference; aside from that UKMO & GFS are extremely similar on D6 on the N. Atlantic-Europe view.

 

Not sure whether UKMO would manage to pinch apart the low heights between Greenland and Europe using the ridges from the subtropics and Arctic.

Given the extreme model volatility of recent days, it's academic anyway. I won't deny, though, that it's a bit irritating to see these faster trough solutions appearing at a time when there's a lot pointing toward the slower outcome instead. Shows the ability of small variations to grow exponentially, be they errors or otherwise.

 

So I see GFS is turning out alright as of D6. Worth noting that the 00z ECM didn't rely on a wedge to our NE severely disrupting the Tue trough like some of yesterday's runs; instead a wedge that's seeded a little NE of Iceland seems to aid in pushing the slider low south and then receives reinforcements from the Azores ridge.

GFS has trended a little toward that 00z ECM in that the main Atlantic trough breaks against the Azores ridge more, raising the chances of blocking shifting to our near-NW some days later. Being GFS, it'll probably have a bit of a fight on its hand, but in the meantime we can enjoy more easterly charts - albeit not, as of +168, as frigid as those of the 06z... but that was an extreme outcome to say the least!

[Banbury]

Could do with the v cold pool to the NE to fire SWards 

[Bricriu]

4 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Man it's so confusing in here it's unbelievable ? Is this a downgrade/upgrade ????

The GFS and ECM look good, The UKMO less so, it delays the easterly but would likely get there in the end.

[Rocheydub]

There is only micro differences between the runs, that is absolutely to be expected, especially at the ranges we're talking about. Everything is still on course according to this run. Stop panicking people!

[kold weather]

As I said earlier this run is going to make a UK high pressure cell eventually. It's not a bad holding position if the vortex does weaken down the line.