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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
1 minute ago, shaky said:

Hmmmm got a feeling someone wants to post a downgrade comment in here lol but everyones trying to refrain!!arpege is hideous!!!

There's a reason nobody ever posts the APERGE global charts..

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Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
3 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

Just caught up with the gfs 6z run :yahoo:. OMG What a run my friends. Could it really be , that is one seriously cold and snowy run . One thing is for sure there 100% be a downgrade on the gfs 12z (or will there ) . 

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Still that magic number 10 days away!! That won’t verify like that I’m afraid

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
3 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

is this ukmo ok

Hard to say until we see the T+144. Hopefully the Arctic High can push down into Scandi before the Atlantic pushes East

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UKMO 120 has the node of heigher heights over Eastern Greenland which are crucial for setting the wheels in motion in terms of deep cold entering Scandi through allignment -

144 then has to much forward momentum in the atlantic & is the as ICON

until UKMO comes on board we need to remain grounded

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

I think a fair assessment is "It's complicated"

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL
3 hours ago, Nick L said:

Usual rant from me, these "snow depth charts" are in no way indicative of what the EC is actually showing. The algorithms in them are hyped up purely for clickbait, that's the only explanation I can think of.

Edit: Just noticed that foot and a half of snow near Dublin, yeah alright 

Erm, that foot and a half of snow "near Dublin" is actually for the Wicklow Mountains which are only 20 miles from Dublin. The highest peak being over 900 metres so perfectly plausible.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

I think one of the bigger issues is the  lack of higher heights across scandi and norway!!yesterday it looked there was a nice wedge setting up there which meant the lows were disrupting to over and to the west of uk but now that its gone its just easy for the lows to go further east!!over the eastern us it looks pretty fine!

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

There's a reason nobody ever posts the APERGE global charts..

Precip @close range mod..

Otherwise..trash...

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

GFS has better uppers for next Tue - looks like an upgrade on snow that day on this run 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

The storm is further East on the GFS too..

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Victory and a half for the GFSP if it turns out to have beaten the entire GEFS/EPS!

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Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
21 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Not sure what to make of that upstream after 240 - a bit flat

 

I think the GFS and ECM will move towards the UKMO and Icon solution. So the UK won't be going into the freezer next week, unfortunately.

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS has better uppers for next Tue - looks like an upgrade on snow that day on this run 

yup, fun for most

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3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

GFS looking fine, keep calm!

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All well and good, but we need agreement and we haven't got it yet. Still much to be resolved

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Gfs 12z..very decent with overall. Synops..

That wedge @-in an-around the scandinavian sect-more than ample

Another peach...incoming!!

gfsnh-0-120.png

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