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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

People need 2 factor in hours..already past since last run/runs, 

Then-tack fact and cause..

But all in all- thats a good thing atm..

And catch up and float..is gaining on every run...

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
7 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Not this time from the icon.  onto the GFS  12z

Why? would you be able to explain for those less experienced (me included) as it helps to learn.  

Edited by P-M
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Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
5 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Could be a hectic rush hour on Tuesday

image.png

Can someone explain why the weather techs on TV don't even show this kind of setup next week they only show cloudy days and max temps of 7c .

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
3 minutes ago, P-M said:

Why? would you be able to explain for those (me included) as it helps to learn.  

From what I know the trough drops into Europe too far east and not enough energy drops into Europe with it. This allows the high to move eastwards across us bringing westerlies.

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Posted
  • Location: Arklow on the East coast of Ireland
  • Location: Arklow on the East coast of Ireland
16 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

Yeah Nick well aware, re the accum charts, but posted merely to show that nearly whole of UK would see some snow falling at some point from the EC run. To be fair in March they weren't that far off the mark where I live but that was exceptional circumstances.

Screenshot_20190117-073952_Chrome.jpg

I'm an hour south of Dublin,just 2 miles from the coast and only 162ft asl

Last march when Emma was done we had over 2 feet of level snow and roads blocked by 8ft drifts so that kind of total here isn't impossible,I've seen it a few times in my lifetime 

Edited by Tristrame
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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
2 minutes ago, P-M said:

Why? would you be able to explain for those (me included) as it helps to learn.  

Sorry   Basic summary on the Icon  first pic   the high does not amplify enough  and the low (ex storm ) energy goes over the top squashing the ridge  bringing in westerly winds.  The ecm  amplyfies the high and migrates to Scandi so the low cannot barrel over the top so the high stays in place and gives winds from a easterly direction. 

 

iconnh-0-153.png

ECH1-168.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Totton Hampshire
  • Location: Totton Hampshire
4 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Can someone explain why the weather techs on TV don't even show this kind of setup next week they only show cloudy days and max temps of 7c .

Becuase they are most likely are using a different model. I would expect them to change over the weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

The problem with the ICON is that it's moving the USA storm Eastwards much faster than the other models - Worth noting NOAA went with an ECM EPS/GFS Blend beyond 36hrs so it would seem the ICON is being too progressive with that storm. 

It's slightly better on the 12z but not good enough and it sends energy East preventing the high from pushing Northwards in the Atlantic and this has a knock on effect to the UK weather. The good news is that the ICON seems to be largely on it's own at the moment regarding the storm track. 

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
7 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Sorry   Basic summary on the Icon  first pic   the high does not amplify enough  and the low (ex storm ) energy goes over the top squashing the ridge  bringing in westerly winds.  The ecm  amplyfies the high and migrates to Scandi so the low cannot barrel over the top so the high stays in place and gives winds from a easterly direction. 

Thanks Weir much appreciated.

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
3 minutes ago, P-M said:

Thanks Weir much appreciated.

The low  just coming out of the USA we really want that to be quite slow and quite deep  also close to the coast as possible  this will in turn pump up WAA and help inflate the high     Models at the moment differ in how this is modelled 

image.thumb.png.52a44f53f14bb9909c2a8d0716164408.png

Edited by weirpig
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

UKMO 96

image.thumb.png.1e8fa8b177a56507724d6a1f46fa2b53.png

Would prefer to see +72 first as it's hard to judge, but looks ok

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

The key is the split in the lobes of the PV, if we get that around 96 hours then we should get the stellar charts, if we don't then we could be in trouble

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

PLOP in she drops

UW120-21.gif

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Just now, Sweatyman said:

is this ukmo ok

looks similar to the 00z, by no means a disaster. 

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