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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I know they take them into consideration and use them but they primarily use ECM , UKMO and in house glosea/mogreps . Ian F said it himself they take gfs into consideration along with JMA , that says it all really . . That’s not to say gfs/p hasn’t  got this right , it might well have . Time will tell . 

I think I'd rather take a Met Office person's word for it, than anyone-else's...and without spinning their words?

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I know they take them into consideration and use them but they primarily use ECM , UKMO and in house glosea/mogreps . Ian F said it himself they take gfs into consideration along with JMA , that says it all really . . That’s not to say gfs/p hasn’t  got this right , it might well have . Time will tell . 

don't get me wrong IC, amongst the throng of happy 'coldites' (wtf is a coldite...lol) I hope the gfs(p) is off the mark....and talking of which, what a remarkable set of overnight and morning runs!...stone me, there's plenty of snow opportunities in the offing!......The coldie in me says 'get in my son!' but it's tempered by the 'sobering' part of me says 'bugger, I'm a SE courier doing rural rounds, next week could be 'interesting' to say the least'........doh!

just seen your second post....No worries! 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes but the JMA isn't showing that mild westerly, the parallel is on its own, you say many models but how low do they go? the only op showing mild is the GEM apart from the gfs(p)

GFSp is far from mild ...

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E769B0D5-DD59-4E30-B710-2FA9B0C0185D.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Just now, Ed Stone said:

I think I'd rather take a Met Office person's word for it, than anyone-else's...and without spinning their words?

Ed I’m not one for making up crap . Ian tweeted the other week someone ask him on twitter and that’s what he said . @Steve Murr will tell you it was talked about on here little while back .

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Ed I’m not one for making up crap . Ian tweeted the other week someone ask him on twitter and that’s what he said . @Steve Murr will tell you it was talked about on here little while back .

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
24 minutes ago, Skyraker said:

For what it's worth NOAA model discussion:

Model solutions show only minor differences during the initial 36 hours of the forecast period across the CONUS, which includes the deep layer cyclone offshore the West Coast that lifts gradually north off the West Coast through Thursday, and also the progressive shortwave and associated surface low that lifts from the southern Plains to the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes through Thursday night.

Thus a general model blend should suffice through about 36 hours. However, by around 12Z on Friday, more substantial differences in the model mass fields begin to emerge. In particular the 00Z GFS and 00Z CMC are seen as slow outliers with the next negatively tilted trough and intense surface low offshore of the Pacific Northwest which ultimately advances northeast into British Columbia on Saturday as a trailing cold front crosses the coastal ranges of western WA/OR. The 00Z NAM for its part appears too weak with its surface low evolution.

The 00Z ECMWF has trended a bit weaker from its very strong 12Z solution and has strong support now from the 12Z ECENS. The 00Z UKMET is also very close to ECMWF/ECENS mean camp. Meanwhile, farther east, the guidance continues to struggle with the details of the amplifying shortwave trough that ejects out across the central/southern Plains on Friday and then advances east across the OH/TN Valleys and the southeast U.S. Saturday into Sunday. The 00Z NAM and 00Z GFS are on the faster side of the guidance as the energy advances east of the lower/middle MS Valley, and the 00Z GFS overall is a bit north of all of the guidance with the low track and is also seen as being a bit faster than the 00Z GEFS mean.

The 00Z UKMET/CMC/ECMWF solutions are conversely a bit slower but are noted to have trended a bit more progressive with this latest cycle. Overall, the UKMET remnains the slowest solution. The 12Z ECENS mean generally favors the slower consensus, and is quite close to the deterministic ECMWF. There remains a fair amount of ensemble member spread with the low track when looking into the ensemble plots of the GEFS/Canadian guidance, and to some extent the ECENS suite which suggests a limited degree of confidence in the details of the low track timing and latitudinal placement as it moves into the eastern U.S. this weekend, but there has been at least a modest convergence of the guidance with the 00Z cycle.

Based on the latest available trends and guidance, a solution toward the 12Z ECENS mean will be preferred across the Western U.S. and offshore the West Coast after 36 hours, with a solution toward a compromise of the 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECENS mean and 00Z GEFS mean across the Eastern U.S. after 36 hours. The incorporation of the GEFS mean will be out of respect for the more progressive trends at least seen out of the NAM/GFS solution over the last 24 hours.

Well that sounds like good news   regarding the Low  fingers crossed

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, beerandkebab said:

Cheers mate . Wasn’t trying to slate gfs just saying that ECM /UKMO is the preferred. As it says there the gfs has served as a good global model . They all have there moments

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Yeah Tim bland the GFSP isn't a bad run verbatim, but it's almost certainly 1-2c too cold in that Westerly flow as it always is that far out, so questionable how much of those marginal setups it shows would happen, at least away from favoured locales.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Yes as @weirpig said just to let everyone know the meto further outlook update @Summer Sun first posted wasn’t the update . The new one is in there now and it’s brilliant  . Just so there’s no confusion. 

Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

I thought it looked better  tighter storm  

better ridging  also at 126 hrs

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
2 hours ago, Nick L said:

Usual rant from me, these "snow depth charts" are in no way indicative of what the EC is actually showing. The algorithms in them are hyped up purely for clickbait, that's the only explanation I can think of.

Edit: Just noticed that foot and a half of snow near Dublin, yeah alright 

Yeah Nick well aware, re the accum charts, but posted merely to show that nearly whole of UK would see some snow falling at some point from the EC run. To be fair in March they weren't that far off the mark where I live but that was exceptional circumstances.

Screenshot_20190117-073952_Chrome.jpg

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