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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
3 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

Spare a thought foe eastern Ireland who don’t even get a dusting while you guys dig yourselves outl! Though I know these maps are not worth much 

I've seen that before and it won't happen like that, more runs needed iam sticking with ECM/ukmo.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
46 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What an absolute STONKER of a run, that was! And a fantastic finale, too...And, assuming it comes-off anything like that, a fabulous coup, for the teleconnections/long-term signals guys!:hi:

image.thumb.png.6f48a674b1bb9185122fba3a0e677b5e.png

One of best GFS runs I've seen Ed, especially for Tuesday, won't come off like that though

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Ok quick summary for folk catching up.

 

The Good.

image.thumb.png.5b44b2c8f136a042d5437fdbdebb344c.pngimage.thumb.png.15330300fbe603c4d48e9094a60d2a78.png  

 

The Bad

image.thumb.png.7da6372cc0dcaa2582d576ec35d5dfa6.png   

 

The Indifferent

image.thumb.png.dae9cc6b506ae411f1cf2f58a10a6a34.png

Its all to do with the storm off the Eastern side of the Us  we need that to stay tight to the coast and quite strong  this in tern will amplify the high   . Still loads to be resolved  as the GFS will testify 

image.thumb.png.93838a478c3223344c1db34ce2929aa0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Storrington 131ft ASL
  • Location: Storrington 131ft ASL
4 hours ago, geordiekev said:

Great to see the 0zs playing ball for a change, if they upgrade through the day as is the case normally we're in for some corkers and with snow melt not so much an issue this time of year, could certainly get very interesting. 

However, if I were you, you might want to double check your window, having ran to window and being on northern hill, think you must be seeing things as here zilch

But accum charts from ECM showing almost whole of UK in on action at some point in next 10.

Screenshot_20190117-073952_Chrome.jpg

Charts look amazing even for south east. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Just as well its just for a laugh, horrendous chart for those in Poole/Bournemouth

I wouldn’t worry about that! Same charts were showing like that last year for the Match spell...... look what happened there ❄️⛄❄️⛄

Ignore the detail, the fact we have charts showing widespread snow chances is all that matters for now 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

About 50% of the clusters more or less support the det run at day ten although of course the truncated view to the east is a problem Thereafter merely emphasizes how tricky the evolution of the pattern is

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019011700_240.thumb.png.8c53c089048f143eb2306192841ee0d5.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019011700_312.thumb.png.0ed25c1f60a3e1e1395aaf133ef727cb.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019011700_360.thumb.png.d0ed30d798f9f54b5dce447f8295d75f.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

GFS para eventually gives us a very Luke cool shot as the Atlantic finally puffs out. But the run is throwing dartboard lows over the place and goes from slightly positive to raging  positive AO with a strengthen ing, though still fragmented PV.

What might be true is it may require a couple of bites to get the upper blocking in, but GFSP takes the biscuit on that one!

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Posted
  • Location: Penkridge
  • Weather Preferences: Virgins
  • Location: Penkridge
15 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

The question was it an outlier?

graphe3_1000_256_31___.gif

No it has support even in the south East
graphe3_1000_337_158___.gif

Yeah it is (day 6+), probably expected given those charts, that said, it takes a couple of members with it.

Mind you, on a plus note, those means are fabulous.

Edited by Skyraker
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Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
12 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I wouldn’t worry about that! Same charts were showing like that last year for the Match spell...... look what happened there ❄️⛄❄️⛄

Ignore the detail, the fact we have charts showing widespread snow chances is all that matters for now 

NW Bingo coming up,.....yep get the cold in first and then the snow will follow

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, festivalking said:

NW Bingo coming up,.....yep get the cold in first and then the snow will follow

And it's no exaggeration to say that all of the building blocks are perfectly positioned, on this morning's 06Z!:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
21 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Ok quick summary for folk catching up.

 

The Good.

image.thumb.png.5b44b2c8f136a042d5437fdbdebb344c.pngimage.thumb.png.15330300fbe603c4d48e9094a60d2a78.png  

 

The Bad

image.thumb.png.7da6372cc0dcaa2582d576ec35d5dfa6.png   

 

The Indifferent

image.thumb.png.dae9cc6b506ae411f1cf2f58a10a6a34.png

Its all to do with the storm off the Eastern side of the Us  we need that to stay tight to the coast and quite strong  this in tern will amplify the high   . Still loads to be resolved  as the GFS will testify 

image.thumb.png.93838a478c3223344c1db34ce2929aa0.png

Think many of us would bank the bad there let alone the good. Seems like we are only going one way and that’s the white way

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
27 minutes ago, Skyraker said:

Yeah it is (day 6+), probably expected given those charts, that said, it takes a couple of members with it.

Mind you, on a plus note, those means are fabulous.

Based on those ensembles only, it's in a sizeable cluster right through to day 7, after which there is no clear signal. Scatter becomes too random after day 7 to be able to discern a favoured trend. 

But, the background pattern is unchanged. For now, ensembles give reasonable guidance to day 7, after which it is pointless trying to figure out what happens at the detailed level. 

Edited by WhiteFox
Typo
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Posted
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
1 hour ago, suffolkboy_ said:

That's temperatures at 6am, ie minimums. We had colder than that in December 2010.

We did in Yorkshire too. I believe Topcliffe recorded a minimum of -19 on several nights and Doncaster airport-15.

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
10 minutes ago, chessfiend said:

Didn't someone say the GFSP was supposed to be more accurate? Its idea is completely the opposite to what we are all hoping for

image.thumb.png.2162e081737cf386ba26cac9fd0e7476.png

image.png

Seems to point towards the most favoured outcome. But only slightly.

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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
18 minutes ago, chessfiend said:

Didn't someone say the GFSP was supposed to be more accurate? Its idea is completely the opposite to what we are all hoping for

image.thumb.png.2162e081737cf386ba26cac9fd0e7476.png

image.png

I've been pondering that too - surely if it's the most accurate then it's now showing the most favoured outcome?

Or is that only when it shows what people want to see?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

 

4 minutes ago, Buzz said:

I've been pondering that too - surely if it's the most accurate then it's now showing the most favoured outcome?

Or is that only when it shows what people want to see?

But the majority clusters on the ens suites, and the ECM op still show colder than that (albeit with varying degrees and synoptics) so that is in a minority, don't get me wrong, if that starts to gain traction, i will be the first to say it (and probably get baited into a forum ban in the process), but the mild westerly is a minority solution.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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