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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Doesn't GFS have a tendency to flip strongly from progressive Atlantic conditions to doing the complete opposite and going OTT though?...personally feel the 0z might be more on the money (just a hunch) with northern heights later transferring to a Greenland block, maybe similarish also the ecm 0z, any thoughts?

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall

I would still urge to be careful at the moment as some models are still not supporting the idea of "severe cold" to put it ...

Let's hope we don't have a huge disappointment due to ramping 

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Posted
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, very cold (inc. anticyclonic) weather
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
12 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

If anything like that came off you could say good-bye to any chance tens of thousands of schools, and hundreds of thousands if not millions of business premises opening their doors. Shame it's the realm of fantasy.

That's temperatures at 6am, ie minimums. We had colder than that in December 2010.

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Just now, frosty ground said:

Which ramping bubble would that be?

Go back and have a read i think i'll stay grounded until cross model support inside 96hr to build heights far enough north after the slider to support an Easterly that's all.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
11 minutes ago, booferking said:

Sorry to burst the ramping bubble but FV3 still says NO..

gfsnh-0-144 (5).png

gfsnh-0-162.png

Thats on the first notion..(still an open case!.)

The P- SAYS ITS GOING THE RITE WAY AS AN OVERALL SYNOP..

gfsnh-0-168 (1).png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Just now, booferking said:

Go back and have a read i think i'll stay grounded until cross model support inside 96hr to build heights far enough north after the slider to support an Easterly that's all.

I have read it people are commenting on the run becasue that's what this thread is, not sure I've read a single its happening or nailed on post. No Ramping just commenting Plenty of realistic post regarding its chances to.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
37 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Wheres the boom gif

CDBCEBBB-6415-4C65-810B-1B6764D12B8D.thumb.png.65956821b6b4da3ae396f116071d8190.pngC2A8A34B-C418-4860-BC60-E48A5FBDFBA8.thumb.png.7692f51e97b081385201330b14bb1914.png

The gfs is back in vogue, right?  

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

I think the GEFS exploring various scenarios post-low dropping SE early next week. At T138 we can see the GEFS are strong with the sliding low:

gens_panel_est4.png  T180 gens_panel_kin6.png

However variations on a theme. By T180 that variation has created entropy and there is no dominant cluster(s)^^^

Its a case of taking one step at a time. We got the sliding low 1 and 2 (hopefully) and now we need a few runs to tighten up on what follows. With wedges looking to be the more likely solution to blocking then we can expect many changes, hopefully, all routes lead to cold and snow!

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
7 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Thats on the first notion..(still an open case!.)

The P- SAYS ITS GOUNG THE RITE WAY AS AN OVERALL SYNOP..

gfsnh-0-168 (1).png

Yep and hopefully it can turn around on the 12z run just need to dissect that low to open the snow gates..

Edited by booferking
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

I’ve said before that I’m comfortable if one of the gfs/gfsp is in the right place 

however, we are now seeing important differences at day 5/6 and you would really want to see all ops singing the broad right tune at that timescale 

had we lost the normal gfs by now (as may well have have happpened) one wonders how quiet this thread would currently be ........

the clusters look good

i was reminded of looking at the wow extended clusters last Friday and now I’m seeing similar output in the extended but also the wow clusters are in the 6/10 day now !!!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

As for the para, yeah it's not going with it BUT it is doing a poor job it seems like with the USA winter storm and is too flabby and weak with it, which reduces WAA and makes it more likely to phase with other lows. We want that storm to stay strong and discrete. Yes it is a balancing act because too strong and it will flatten things anyway, but the oara is badly looking like the odd one out at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
  • Weather Preferences: See if you can guess
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl

Strange how the GFS para is being more dismissive about UK cold atm, I've noticed this winter it has tended to be biased the other way, but then, it has not verified.

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

I know it's a great time to be following the models at the moment, but if we can keep the full-on ramps etc to the banter thread, it'll be better for all those wanting to follow this thread. I've moved a few over there just now - it's only a click away (link at the top of every page on this thread), so should be simple to follow and take part-in next to this discussion  

 

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Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

It's like the worst-case scenario runs are still going with a snow-fest. (albeit from a different direction)

06z Para

gfsnh-1-222.png

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

If GFSp is the worst case scenario we are not in a bad place! More likely is a blend of this and GFS / ECM 

753EC3F5-0399-49C6-9663-68B2D36D38DF.png

86B56F08-1AFF-45AE-BBF8-1F0AE57AD363.png

499E3C3B-81D0-4B8C-A6FA-F8B1F58CE60E.png

ED44AB0D-FD19-4093-9A6F-DB0601037C14.png

Edited by Tim Bland
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

The global pattern is totally different on the 06p, luckily the ECM looks far closer to the 06z on the global stage (especially across the US/Canada).

Good to see that the para has the same issues as the op has though with overdoing it...no wonder the para has shown 0 improvement over the op.

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Posted
  • Location: Castlereagh hills. 160m asl.
  • Location: Castlereagh hills. 160m asl.
11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Snow fall / depth would be monumental if that 06z gfs run came true...level depths of 50cm in places! 

55217B7A-8A84-41BA-9262-EA796A5714F1.png

Spare a thought foe eastern Ireland who don’t even get a dusting while you guys dig yourselves outl! Though I know these maps are not worth much 

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