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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
18 hours ago, seabreeze86 said:

06Z GFS delivers again.

3 day Snow event for Pennines and Central England.

uksnowrisk.thumb.png.d8d6168a812601fd23ec930670ff64b2.png

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

And when we have another PV segment displacement and NW/SE trough, (imo likely as Scandi to be influential directly, then indirectly then directly etc etc) the air is so cold that insignificant warming (if any) out occurs.  Massive nationwide snow event towards end of month to support previous snowfall.  

That is one seriously cold run .......the evolution is plausible too, the depth of cold....? It’s so good even just getting 60-70 % of its potency would still be very wintry!!!  So a great start continues

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.14770c3886d52bea3cb6ca8cd4e01053.png

Still frigid next sunday...

Frigid? Does that mean Feb91 won't be getting smashed with 4 inches? 

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

The GFS solution 300h+ is what the JMA was showing yesterday (although more moderated).

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham

graphe3_1000_517_95___.gif

This morning 0z Ensembles from the Netherlands..... the 06 is colder than all but two runs in the mid part of the run. AKA not a lot of support.

Then again the 06z Run yesterday had two runs that was shown across all the model outputs on the 12z (except the ICON) So who knows.

On the scale of Upgrades Vs Downgrades (we can't have any more upgrades)

It's also the kind of run that would seriously threaten temperature records 
gfs-0-312.png?6

Edited by frosty ground
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Posted
  • Location: Ipswich, Suffolk 72asl
  • Location: Ipswich, Suffolk 72asl
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS just broke the internet

20-40cm 

overnight T2Ms - with no end in sight- very 'JMA'

0A9B1B54-BAFE-4CBD-830B-6D3078BE9AF2.thumb.png.718b6b44b21f7a33bc736432b05a7722.png732CC6AF-50CA-4E0F-9519-0A690F1B9B72.thumb.png.e40af30a6a932807fe69d04648c33078.png

Yes Steve... what a clonker!! 

Key here is for the disruption to be kind and push the trough well into Europe and getting those heights setting up over the Barents Sea allowing some deep cold advection. Tasty! 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Very doubtful we'll see anything like that 06z run which to be honest was better than any Xmas TV to watch...even a slightly watered down version will do.

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