Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[SMU]

Wheres the boom gif

[frosty ground]

eeek

That would be an impressive event

[weirpig]

Lol  Uk snowed in    again  one of the best runs i have seen in a while  the cold and snow just keeps on coming

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

eeek

That would be an impressive event

Serious weather porn there mate

Huge dumplings of snow- we can dream!!

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Wheres the boom gif

That is some serious snowfall rates there!!!dangerous comes to mind but also amazing

[SMU]

GFS just broke the internet

20-40cm 

overnight T2Ms - with no end in sight- very 'JMA'

[Iceaxecrampon]

18 hours ago, seabreeze86 said:

06Z GFS delivers again.

3 day Snow event for Pennines and Central England.

 

 

 

[bluearmy]

The extended ens guidance is for another round of Canadian vortex splurge to head se.......this is prob an extreme version but it’s in the envelope 

[IDO]

Who needs Brexit:

 

UK CLOSED FOR BUSINESS!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

And when we have another PV segment displacement and NW/SE trough, (imo likely as Scandi to be influential directly, then indirectly then directly etc etc) the air is so cold that insignificant warming (if any) out occurs.  Massive nationwide snow event towards end of month to support previous snowfall.  

That is one seriously cold run .......the evolution is plausible too, the depth of cold....? It’s so good even just getting 60-70 % of its potency would still be very wintry!!!  So a great start continues

 

BFTP

Edited January 17, 2019 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

GFS just broke the internet

20-40cm 

overnight T2Ms - with no end in sight- very 'JMA'

Note to self- MUST STAY GROUNDED!!

And a quick memo to GFS-

[O'Maille80]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Still frigid next sunday...

Frigid? Does that mean Feb91 won't be getting smashed with 4 inches? 

[Eskimo]

The GFS solution 300h+ is what the JMA was showing yesterday (although more moderated).

[frosty ground]

This morning 0z Ensembles from the Netherlands..... the 06 is colder than all but two runs in the mid part of the run. AKA not a lot of support.

Then again the 06z Run yesterday had two runs that was shown across all the model outputs on the 12z (except the ICON) So who knows.

On the scale of Upgrades Vs Downgrades (we can't have any more upgrades)

It's also the kind of run that would seriously threaten temperature records 

Edited January 17, 2019 by frosty ground

[Polar Maritime]

Yes very exciting runs indeed, But please let's keep this thread away from one liners/ramps especially during these upcoming busy periods as to keep the thread informative as posts will go missing.

Onwards and upwards..

Edited January 17, 2019 by Polar Maritime

[weirpig]

Quite simply one of the most brutal  and snowy runs i have seen.  Ends with a easterly and -12 over England  lets take a breath

Edited January 17, 2019 by weirpig

[northwestsnow]

Hows that for cold lol.

[Nimbusman]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS just broke the internet

20-40cm 

overnight T2Ms - with no end in sight- very 'JMA'

Yes Steve... what a clonker!! 

Key here is for the disruption to be kind and push the trough well into Europe and getting those heights setting up over the Barents Sea allowing some deep cold advection. Tasty! 

[northwestsnow]

Day time temps late Jan..

[frosty ground]

One more post from me

That run contains 6 (Six) lows that disrupt and slide either over the UK or just to the West from start to finish 

[Froze were the Days]

Very doubtful we'll see anything like that 06z run which to be honest was better than any Xmas TV to watch...even a slightly watered down version will do.

[Methuselah]

What an absolute STONKER of a run, that was! And a fantastic finale, too...And, assuming it comes-off anything like that, a fabulous coup, for the teleconnections/long-term signals guys!

[chionomaniac]

Not often we see heavy snow arrive from the west, stay as snow throughout the whole period and then keep on the ground with more snow and no melting until the end of the run. Who's knocking the GFS now LOL. Probably just, perhaps, maybe, I would bank this run.....

[WalsallWeather123]

GFS(P) still flat at T126

[weirpig]

What the Gfs givith   the control   well  best leave that were it is