Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Ipswich, Suffolk 72asl
  • Location: Ipswich, Suffolk 72asl
2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

As per my post of just now, energy not quite clearing on the 06z at +138/144 and we don't get the cleaner link up.

gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.a86a3c0ea3054e249bc70bee51d03e7f.png

Suspect it will end up fine though, just delayed? Still a cracking chart as well by the way.

Yes I agree, slightly delayed but looks like the core of the high developing at a higher latitude might mean deeper cold advected later? Another option on the table for next week. let’s see how it progresses... 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

6z looking JMAish lots of cold east.

Overall just variation of the theme. Just adding to that we have an undercut east with cold advancing west, could be a beast.

Edited by Snowman.
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Yes gfs 6z looks for longevity..

And much better aligned 4 tap into deeper-out east cold....another good good run....

gfsnh-1-204.png

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 8
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ipswich, Suffolk 72asl
  • Location: Ipswich, Suffolk 72asl

I’m liking the the tilt of the scandi high at 192h and all that cold air flooding westwards...

 

24D16E53-6C37-424D-9985-505EBFB929CA.png

E49BEE42-8680-4A3E-BF1D-ED8B8E0D6536.png

Edited by Nimbusman
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-192.png?6?6

Where is hat low that's forming over the Baltics going 

gfs-5-192.png?6

It'll either give us a dumping, or in more typical fashion, will blow up into a deep low and cut off the cold flow - we've seen that before!

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

That's some cold pool out east. There don't seem to be any of those pesky wee 'mild' bits, either::cold:

image.thumb.png.699bab87ec4bb68c6e9919eeed2e0278.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
1 minute ago, Johnp said:

It'll either give us a dumping, or in more typical fashion, will blow up into a deep low and cut off the cold flow - we've seen that before!

Just think of all that instabilaty , if it turns into a flow with the jet behind it won't cut of the cold as it's being pushed along with it.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

1987 redux anyone ,maybe we are getting close to it again,surely not ,the forum won’t be able to stay running if we close to that extreme cold ☃️

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

6Z has great uppers to the east altho they slip south around the 200 hour mark(fi) granted.decent run tho

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Penkridge
  • Weather Preferences: Virgins
  • Location: Penkridge
5 minutes ago, Johnp said:

It'll either give us a dumping, or in more typical fashion, will blow up into a deep low and cut off the cold flow - we've seen that before!

Or it could give us this:

Feb 1991 Morning forecast Francis Wilson

 

Edited by Skyraker
  • Like 8
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

That's some cold pool out east. There don't seem to be any of those pesky wee 'mild' bits, either:

image.thumb.png.699bab87ec4bb68c6e9919eeed2e0278.png

Nope. Deep midwinter cold with very little solar energy. An easterly has the potential to be very potent at this time of year! 

@s4lancia called it just about right with his probabilities earlier on I think. About 65% in favour of an easterly right now, but details to be defined. 

If easterly sets up a shown by Wednesday/Thursday as shown in GFS 6z then you would expect to see disturbances travelling East to West towards the UK. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

6Z quite a lot colder than 00z for sure-

Plenty of snow and severe frost- yes please i will take 6z right now if offered..

And the daily 12Z upgrade is already looking tasty!:cold::yahoo:

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...