Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
12 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Might be a daft question but why is there a lot of attention given to De Bilt when it’s in the Netherlands and we are in the UK?

I note sometimes it’s mentioned even when there is no easterly wind in the offing. 

Because they are one of the few location specific ensembles that are freely available (and it's close enough to the UK that it probably doesn't make much odds).

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

The best thing about the output this morning....is that the perennial 'is it cold enough for snow? Have we got the right ingredients?' questions can be thrown in the bin. If these chars verify, it's snow all the way! Just have to sit back and keep everything cross that it verifies as modelled.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
12 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

Because they are one of the few location specific ensembles that are freely available (and it's close enough to the UK that it probably doesn't make much odds).

DeBilt would generally be colder in an easterly, as there is nothing but continental landmass upwind. In a northerly or northwesterly it could be less cold than some inland UK locations, due to Holland coastal areas exposed to the North Sea track and the moderation the SSTs have on the northerly flow.

Edited by Nick F
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

DeBilt would generally be colder in an easterly, as there is nothing but continental landmass upwind. In an northerly it could be less cold than some inland UK locations, due to Holland coastal areas exposed to the North Sea track and the moderation the SSTs have on the northerly flow.

Yes 

As a rule of thumb for the UK in a direct easterly is +1/+1.5c on Debilt

so the mean & operational being about -1c by day next week is a great sign for us!

  • Like 8
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

The GFS this morning is still doing it's best to provide some snow for many parts of the UK next week, especially Scotland, but has back-pedalled a bit overnight on the overall extent and amount.  These are the charts I was trying to animate yesterday but failed completely!....

Monday             image.thumb.gif.3e220255284e8bb6676868183afa4728.gif image.thumb.gif.e8a5a2bcb3b963388c53613ad3a4d59c.gif

Tuesday            image.thumb.gif.68a2fa6a20b468b17268ab568d09841e.gif image.thumb.gif.397ef1fe97564a1858128436b956513a.gif

Wednesday       image.thumb.gif.3367209b69addf12ae9a6e0cbc3b999e.gif image.thumb.gif.5c37af8d30fd35b2e02ba9ec195010b6.gif

Thursday           image.thumb.gif.06af8fb0fa3524fd6ae27c2e85bf6e66.gif image.thumb.gif.4b5f2b55d23beec2537d1ae2bbf319a0.gif

Friday                image.thumb.gif.f362c820edd4d5d3a48bf70e9b384f6b.gif image.thumb.gif.60f6ed445ac7d8633f90bd229cb9f50a.gif

The GFS(p) is similar but places the snow and sleet more in the west.  Its looking more likely now that we are in for five days of wintry conditions in a row and we can't grumble about that!

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
12 minutes ago, Nick F said:

DeBilt would generally be colder in an easterly, as there is nothing but continental landmass upwind. In a northerly or northwesterly it could be less cold than some inland UK locations, due to Holland coastal areas exposed to the North Sea track and the moderation the SSTs have on the northerly flow.

Absolutely, Nick. It's not perfect, but I think my answer to his question is correct!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nutts Corner
  • Location: Nutts Corner
8 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

 

The GFS(p) is similar but places the snow and sleet more in the west.  Its looking more likely now that we are in for five days of wintry conditions in a row and we can't grumble about that!

 

Hopefully some westward corrections over the next couple of days, but looking good for many to see snow

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

I know we should all be cautious about taking the FI charts seriously, but you have to have a little hit of fun sometimes..... 

Just look at the end of the GFS run from last night - it's sheer model poetry:

image.thumb.gif.3a90135ae2ea181df9300f05639aff59.gif  image.thumb.gif.22cae1f244d7ff1ae8ffd73f49447401.gif

That would bring seriously cold conditions nationwide. 

 

Edited by Sky Full
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

The GFS this morning is still doing it's best to provide some snow for many parts of the UK next week, especially Scotland, but has back-pedalled a bit overnight on the overall extent and amount.  These are the charts I was trying to animate yesterday but failed completely!....

Monday             image.thumb.gif.3e220255284e8bb6676868183afa4728.gif image.thumb.gif.e8a5a2bcb3b963388c53613ad3a4d59c.gif

Tuesday            image.thumb.gif.68a2fa6a20b468b17268ab568d09841e.gif image.thumb.gif.397ef1fe97564a1858128436b956513a.gif

Wednesday       image.thumb.gif.3367209b69addf12ae9a6e0cbc3b999e.gif image.thumb.gif.5c37af8d30fd35b2e02ba9ec195010b6.gif

Thursday           image.thumb.gif.06af8fb0fa3524fd6ae27c2e85bf6e66.gif image.thumb.gif.4b5f2b55d23beec2537d1ae2bbf319a0.gif

Friday                image.thumb.gif.f362c820edd4d5d3a48bf70e9b384f6b.gif image.thumb.gif.60f6ed445ac7d8633f90bd229cb9f50a.gif

The GFS(p) is similar but places the snow and sleet more in the west.  Its looking more likely now that we are in for five days of wintry conditions in a row and we can't grumble about that!

 

I wouldn't worry to much sky in these charts, they are wrong at T+6 hours most of the time it's nice viewing and certainly shows us some potential. 

Plus if the ECM was right, then there would be a lot more snow down Eastern half of country and western with any systems trying to push up against cold 

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Things are looking interesting, tomorrow night: another one of those marginal lamppost-watching jobs, methinks?
image.thumb.png.d90e214ee431418fa03ddfed6e66dad5.png

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Harsh Frosts & Heavy Snow
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
20 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

 

Tuesday            image.thumb.gif.68a2fa6a20b468b17268ab568d09841e.gif image.thumb.gif.397ef1fe97564a1858128436b956513a.gif

 

Excuse my ignorance but all those precipitation charts you posted look poor for the bulk of England and Wales. I'm guessing the excitement this morning is for what may come after next week? 

Edit: Not trying to put a dampener on the thread, I'm loving the positivity this morning. Just was expecting a little more after reading through the posts this morning.

Edited by MidnightSnow
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Things are looking interesting, tomorrow night: another one of those marginal lamppost-watching jobs, methinks?
image.thumb.png.d90e214ee431418fa03ddfed6e66dad5.png

nationwide or for select areas? 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

nationwide or for select areas? 

Good question, CC, but I think there might be too many variables (for me at least) involved: uppers would favour the east, I guess, but say little about possible evaporative cooling etc....Who knows?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
9 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

 

Excuse my ignorance but all those precipitation charts you posted look poor for the bulk of England and Wales. I'm guessing the excitement this morning is for what may come after next week? 

Edit: Not trying to put a dampener on the thread, I'm loving the positivity this morning. Just was expecting a little more after reading through the posts this morning.

Thats Just one op run on one GFS suite.  next to useless at this range.  The Ecm brings much more in the way of snow.   For a better idea best to use the Hi Res charts at 48hrs out.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

 

Excuse my ignorance but all those precipitation charts you posted look poor for the bulk of England and Wales. I'm guessing the excitement this morning is for what may come after next week? 

Edit: Not trying to put a dampener on the thread, I'm loving the positivity this morning. Just was expecting a little more after reading through the posts this morning.

An upgrade now on the 6z. But like everyone else has said, GFS precipitation charts are notoriously quite poor. Snow chances for all.

image.png

image.png

image.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The milder upper air not making contact with the wedges of heights around Iceland at T138:

0z gfseu-13-144.thumb.png.d656a1a6bb214878e9f869edeebc5475.png 06z gfseu-13-138.thumb.png.2d2fae3844b28683736db65187c2aa86.png

This blocks the amplification and more likely the ridge sinks. 

Another possible outcome...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-5-150.png?6gfs-5-156.png

Also lacking a little bit of amplification again when compared to the 0z run

Definitely looks a bit flatter upstream but it's only the GFS 6z

Edited by mountain shadow
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

As per my post of just now, energy not quite clearing on the 06z at +138/144 and we don't get the cleaner link up.

gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.a86a3c0ea3054e249bc70bee51d03e7f.png

Suspect it will end up fine though, just delayed? Still a cracking chart as well by the way.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Stunning Ecm 00z ensemble mean..if you love cold!!:cold-emoji:

EDM1-168.gif

EDM0-168.gif

EDM0-192.gif

EDM0-216.gif

EDM0-240.GIF

Thanks for those Karl. That must be one of the best ensemble means I can remember seeing, since I became a member of this Forum, in January 2005.

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...