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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
2 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Not to worry, I am sure Prime Minister Attlee will have a plan for that. 

Very naughty @Roger J Smith 

 

ECM is a beauty too.  My only angst with UKMO is the speed of movement between t120 and t144....I think it’ll be a tad slower and more easterly component involved. 1st time in sometime that we wake up to a non downgrade on the 00z......are we here yet?

 

BFTP

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
11 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

GFS - Incredible

UKMO - Great

ECM - Incredible

I suspect everyone will be having a good morning this morning..

Only the GFSP being a spoil sport.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
8 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Very naughty @Roger J Smith 

 

ECM is a beauty too.  My only angst with UKMO is the speed of movement between t120 and t144....I think it’ll be a tad slower and more easterly component involved. 1st time in sometime that we wake up to a non downgrade on the 00z......are we here yet?

 

BFTP

 

 

I feel we are never there until we have snow on the ground nationwide.

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Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
11 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Very naughty @Roger J Smith 

 

ECM is a beauty too.  My only angst with UKMO is the speed of movement between t120 and t144....I think it’ll be a tad slower and more easterly component involved. 1st time in sometime that we wake up to a non downgrade on the 00z......are we here yet?

 

BFTP

 

 

Agreed, all roads point to promise on this morning’s models. Checking in on the MetO extended then, underwhelmed to read the output. Doesn’t seem to correlate with what we’re seeing here, especially for the south. Suggests a different pattern to that long fetch easterly. Irritating. 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
19 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Only the GFSP being a spoil sport.

And Icon and GEM.

Edited by Johnp
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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

To be honest, for me to see UkMO and ECM singing from the same hymn sheets is good enough for me at present.... Will not believe it until it’s inside 96 mins you!

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

How's that for starters from the GFS, UKMO and the ECM?

ECH1-168.GIF.thumb.png.4565e5faa95f75684339690413101920.png

Trough disruption and diving SE through us close to a certainty. What happens next far from it. For balance, GEM shows it is still on a knife edge regards the follow on easterly.

gemnh-0-168.thumb.png.539c13daebcf3f07f36ea6df2258c7af.png

It shows the Atlantic ridging in behind is not enough on its own. We need stronger Griceland heights, courtesy of a clean break SE of the energy to allow Arctic high to be involved as well.The GEM has some running over the top which is what scuppers it.

Hoping the ECM Op and its better resolution has nailed it over the GEM Op solution.

Edited by s4lancia
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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
16 minutes ago, pureasthedriven said:

Agreed, all roads point to promise on this morning’s models. Checking in on the MetO extended then, underwhelmed to read the output. Doesn’t seem to correlate with what we’re seeing here, especially for the south. Suggests a different pattern to that long fetch easterly. Irritating. 

Nothing is yet certain.

For some time it's been looking like around 21st was the date for a real change and that doesn't seem to be too far out. Slight delay as MJO passes through unfavourable phases but think this is a signal being largely overriden by the SSW downwelling. As the MJO moves towards phase 6 we see the signal for northern blocking to increase.

This is not the place to talk about Met Office forecasts, but given the uncertainty and their public duty, it is not surprising they do not ramp up prospects for cold, choosing instead to mention the possibility. Those who need to know will have been briefed of likelihoods and will plan accordingly. FWIW, if you are interested in seeing what goes through a forecaster's mind when looking at events, Google "nws discussion NY" and you can read their description of how they out together the forecast for the upcoming potential storm.

Edited by WhiteFox
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Posted
  • Location: south london, sutton
  • Location: south london, sutton

models are certainly very pleasing , but been here many many times were optimal cold models are shown to peak around this time scale onlt to start downgrading as we get closer to accurately modelling split energy off ESB

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

So having just woke up and my usual rush to the phone to check the models was not greeted to the usual sinking feeling of downgrades, instead I was greeted to the feeling of loads of this.....

05E68413-A226-45BA-95D5-57BFEF055D0A.png

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Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Well can you believe it , what lovely morning . The models are brilliant this morning. No downgrades . 

In fact bloody upgrade B671D2D2-B37A-4C28-8528-564091646F97.thumb.png.c17f2b6f2d49009b2eda1a582a6ba1c3.png

PS - it’s also snowing here in north Hertfordshire. Winter has began

Great to see the 0zs playing ball for a change, if they upgrade through the day as is the case normally we're in for some corkers and with snow melt not so much an issue this time of year, could certainly get very interesting. 

However, if I were you, you might want to double check your window, having ran to window and being on northern hill, think you must be seeing things as here zilch

But accum charts from ECM showing almost whole of UK in on action at some point in next 10.

Screenshot_20190117-073952_Chrome.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Hmmm nice surprise this morning!!!ukmo a bit off the other models but its getting there for sure.happy days

Edited by swfc
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