Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[markw2680]

Right then time for my biggest ever post, ill try and do some kind of summary....

So we have gone from this kind of crap

To this  in a day so im pretty sure there will be loads more crap charts and runs to come but hopefully in the end they will all meet at something along these lines...

And that should spell the end of this...

 And give us loads of this..

The big question though is would that keep all of these hidden away ??

 

But my favourite of all time that will probably live in the memory of many is this....

THE BREAST FEEDER!!

 

  TIGHT ISOBAR that post the other day was without doubt the best thing I have every read on here.

Lets hope that the next GFS run will start the big meeting point of wedges sledges and a big fat easterly to finish off.

[The Eagle]

ICON probably coming more in line with the rest of the Euro models which is a further positive on a day of upgrades.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Looks like ukmo now if not better!!

how do you get that model? my French not great, found Icon on meteociel, but not pressure charts

[shaky]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

how do you get that model? my French not great, found Icon on meteociel, but not pressure charts

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=2&map=2&archive=0

[Scandinavian High.]

I just hope gfs ecm are on the right track because bbc long range are not interested..

[Ice Day]

Now the Icon looks very nice at 120hrs.  Shame it's stopping there!  For comparison, Icon at 120, GFS 126 and ECM / UKMO at 120. All pretty similar, which is your favourite (I'm loving the Icon personally!)

Icon  GFS  ECM  UKMO 

[Djdazzle]

Somebody mentioned a while back that the models would start to produce some Stella runs around the middle of the month. Maybe that’s what will start to happen.

Recently however, the 00z runs have felt like a hangover brought on by drinking too much Stella!

[danm]

1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

I just hope gfs ecm are on the right track because bbc long range are not interested..

 

They’ll be using the 0z data. 

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

I just hope gfs ecm are on the right track because bbc long range are not interested..

BBC long range no doubt based on the poor 00z runs from earlier.

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

I just hope gfs ecm are on the right track because bbc long range are not interested..

Watching that BBC outlook, they appeared to be going off this morning's model updates, so I wouldn't worry about it.

[The Eagle]

I can never understand why media weather are so keenly quoted here in the model thread when the reality is you have the charts right in front of you. Don't need the BBC or anyone else as a source...

#justsayin     #thereisnohashtag

Edited January 16, 2019 by The Eagle

[Optimus Prime]

6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

BBC long range no doubt based on the poor 00z runs from earlier.

Doubt it. They aren't as primitive with regards to available data as we are.

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Now the Icon looks very nice at 120hrs.  Shame it's stopping there!  For comparison, Icon at 120, GFS 126 and ECM / UKMO at 120. All pretty similar, which is your favourite (I'm loving the Icon personally!)

Icon  GFS  ECM  UKMO 

Good comparitives that,the ICON def the more amplified out of the four,so another upgrade from another model that was s**t this morning

UPGRADES ALL ROUND THIS EVENING

gfs 18z next

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Optimus Prime said:

Doubt it. They aren't as primitive with regards to available data as we are.

It’s been obvious for a very long time that they don’t use the latest data. I’d rather get a forecast from the posters in this thread than the BBC, such has been the deterioration since they ditched the Met Office.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, shaky said:

Oh and icon gives 5cms of snow for the midlands friday night saturday morning!!happy dayz!!higher totals further north!!

seems to be stuck on 120

[Catacol]

Looking at the output today it hasn't really changed substantially at all. UKMO pick of the bunch for me - which is pleasing as I have come to a gut sense of appreciating UKMO balance in all situations which sometimes ECM will over egg for merdionality and GFS will press the westerly button hard and fast most of the time. So for UKMO to see this as the 120h forecast is good news

If there is a negative at the moment it is the growing trend away from a slider and instead a more standard low pressure scenario on a SE track, and this means we want this system as far west as we can get it in order for the coldest and driest uppers over the continent to be pulled in over as much of the country as possible. Pressure out east is not high enough it would seem to give us a Feb96 disruption scenario (though time still there for changes on that) so this initial surge may bring very marginal conditions with it. 

Tues then the first chance for a decent event - but what next? At the moment that is very uncertain - and while the diving trough scenario has looked odds on for many days now what follows is still veiled. GFS tonight is by far the better for snow chances; ECM has gone for a Scandy high scenario with mix of undercut from the east and warmer feed in from the SW creating quite a contrast across the country I'd think....but it just doesn't look right to me. If the strange squiggly pattern in and around the S and W of the UK ends up anything like this then I'll eat my hat.

So we wait to see how things develop over the next few days. We cant unfortunately see beyond 10 days for ECM - but the GEFS ensemble for the start of the following week has rather latched onto the pattern with gusto - so everything good from here.

Anyway - all this long distance thinking is taking away from imminent radar and lamp watching - some may even get a little bit of that at times over the weekend. As we approach next week it will be time to sharpen all the really short term tools like Euro4 and various radars in anticipation of extensive use over the next few weeks. Might even have to clean the windows.....

 

[The Eagle]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

seems to be stuck on 120

18z only runs to 120

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

seems to be stuck on 120

Only goes out to 120 hrs on the 06z and 18z,goes out to 180 hrs on the 00z and 12z.

hope that helps.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Only goes out to 120 hrs on the 06z and 18z,goes out to 180 hrs on the 00z and 12z.

hope that helps.

cool, only just viewed it really tonight

[Optimus Prime]

11 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It’s been obvious for a very long time that they don’t use the latest data. I’d rather get a forecast from the posters in this thread than the BBC, such has been the deterioration since they ditched the Met Office.

All anecdotal. I've been following both the BBC and the Metoffice objectively and they have both been more or less on a par. The outcome is far from unequivocal, and there remains huge doubt in the events leading upto and beyond Wednesday as a result of that depression exploding as it leaves the US Saturday. The temperature gradient between the cold and warm moist air is not an outcome easily deciphered pre Sat/Sun. 

Edited January 16, 2019 by Optimus Prime

[Singularity]

Good summary as usual @Catacol 

It's a strange time really; there's a lot of agreement among those using tropical and stratospheric drivers on where we really should be heading overall during the coming fortnight (wedge highs emerging next week and then evolving toward a block in the Greenland-Iceland vicinity), but model confidence has rarely been lower.

Possibly this is a result of the simultaneous occurrence of a stratospheric influence that's not usually modelled very well, a tropical influence that they tend to take a while to get to grips with, and a split jet situation over N. America which also tends to cause them problems. A triple-whammy of uncertainty amplifiers! 

So... if you want to stay stable of mind, best to expect no particular outcome to appear in the models with each new set of runs until we see at least 4 in a row follow roughly the same lines.

 

For what it's worth here's the ultimate feasible outcome for cold conditions: 

1st stage sees regional stratospheric influence works alongside the Euro trough to move some really deep cold over to the UK from the E via NE (like the ECM 12z of today, but cleaner E flow across the UK).

2nd sees the door open for the blocking high to retrogress to our near-NW while the stratospheric downwell raises heights Greenland-Bering, with further deep cold journeying our way fast enough to cut off the milder air that otherwise circulates around to us in the style of the ECM 12z of yesterday.

 

Probability of that? I'd guess about 5%... but I expect that even just halfway toward it would still be memorable for at least some of us!

Edited January 16, 2019 by Singularity
Only Human After All

[Man With Beard]

ECM ensembles watch : I thought I'd pick D10 (26th January), as it looks unclear from the mean chart. Indeed, studying the individual members, it is very unclear, and the mean doesn't really represent as there's such a big split between a. runs that do not let the Atlantic in (generally easterly or northerly), b. runs where the Atlantic has got through (westerly / south westerly), and c. runs where the Atlantic is disrupting as it reaches the UK, generally maintaining cold but not exclusively. The cold options just about have the lead but enough milder runs for there to be good doubt. I counted as follows for D10 (totally imo)

Runs probably cold enough for snow: 28

Runs probably not cold enough : 17

Borderline : 6

What with the general ups and downs of the past few ensemble sets, I think it's too hard to call extended period at the moment, except that the colder synoptics maintain the "lead"

[Optimus Prime]

14 minutes ago, Catacol said:

If there is a negative at the moment it is the growing trend away from a slider and instead a more standard low pressure scenario on a SE track, and this means we want this system as far west as we can get it in order for the coldest and driest uppers over the continent to be pulled in over as much of the country as possible. Pressure out east is not high enough it would seem to give us a Feb96 disruption scenario (though time still there for changes on that) so this initial surge may bring very marginal conditions with it. 

Tues then the first chance for a decent event - but what next? At the moment that is very uncertain - and while the diving trough scenario has looked odds on for many days now what follows is still veiled. GFS tonight is by far the better for snow chances; ECM has gone for a Scandy high scenario with mix of undercut from the east and warmer feed in from the SW creating quite a contrast across the country I'd think....but it just doesn't look right to me. If the strange squiggly pattern in and around the S and W of the UK ends up anything like this then I'll eat my hat.

 

 

A similar situation occurred in Jan 2013 (just before the SSW?)

[icykev]

1947

Jma

What a chart. Looks ominous to me can't wait to see the mornings model outputs! How consistent are jma on model output? Which model is the most reliable in coming days?  Newbie to this but interested in epic/historical weather patterns. Which year of epic/historical cold weather pattern do you believe this could be similar to and why? Hope the charts come true. Liking the similarities between these recent charts @ six days apart 

Ps

What is the best model in your honest opinion? Thanks

[The Eagle]

1 minute ago, icykev said:

Ps

What is the best model in your honest opinion? Thanks

WMC Moscow is a must every day