Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[feb1991blizzard]

JMA 204 onwards will be a Jan 87 redux later.

[Mucka]

Is this evening the first time both ECM and GFS have shown an Easterly for this upcoming "cold" spell?

Add to that JMA and confidence must be improving on an Easterly - will it finally stick?

 

Edited January 16, 2019 by Mucka

[tight isobar]

 

Not a perfect example..but as again the easterly component..

Hard faced.

And gaining HARD..

id expect to see more horizontal flows -via east..

As we make up the disolve..

And break the sequence..

As this morn.@noted.. panic pushing off..

Honestly...we are nearly there!!!!

Edited January 16, 2019 by tight isobar

[WalsallWeather123]

ECM shows a decent snow risk for Friday. Yes the totals may be wrong but the risk is there.

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

ECM shows a decent snow risk for Friday. Yes the totals may be wrong but the risk is there.

Looks like a whiteout. 

[Winter Hill]

2 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

ECM shows a decent snow risk for Friday. Yes the totals may be wrong but the risk is there.

Uk must be buried looking at that chart lol

[summer blizzard]

3 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

ECM shows a decent snow risk for Friday. Yes the totals may be wrong but the risk is there.

Nothing showing.

[Skyraker]

8 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Improvement not as good as yesterday 12z but an easterly of sorts

Would love to be a fly on the wall in your house on Christmas morning.

*Alarm goes off*

Froze were the Days: "Well it's as far away as it will ever be".

 

All in good fun mate, just pulling your leg.

[snowray]

8 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Improvement not as good as yesterday 12z but an easterly of sorts

Should get slidergate no 5 by T240 followed by a full blown easterly, 50/50 chance I'd say.

[Purga]

A tasty cold High building over Scandinavia!

[Froze were the Days]

A shunt east at 12z like for like 

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Is this evening the first time both ECM and GFS have shown an Easterly for this period?

Add to that JMA and confidence must be improving on an Easterly - will it finally stick?

 

Probably not.

Pattern this week for me has been to wake up at 7am, grab my phone to read how you and Crewe have dissected the utter tosh morning runs at 5am, off to work, come home to upgrades and boom charts, wake up at 7am.....

Tiring but wouldn't change it for the world! (apart from actual snow that is)

[edinburgh_1992]

ECMWF T216, that freezing air over Scandinavia looks ready to flow over the UK. 

Shame that it's miles away, hopefully we start seeing some good charts appear in the short term as well

[WalsallWeather123]

6 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Looks like a whiteout. 

Better now lol. Not showing masses of snow but a fairly widespread risk.

[Staffordshire]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, as good as a true beast, looks good for anywhere away from west, my area does well normally from the Wash, problem is, it's FI

Shame it’s coming in January though, as opposed to ‘proper’ winter in April when we could really tap into them cold uppers!

 

Haha I joke, you’re right the wash can set up great for the east/west midlands, same as the Thames for the SE.

[ICE COLD]

Brutal cold just to the east at T240 ?

[markw2680]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

A shunt east at 12z like for like 

Yeah if you take it as gospel. Can’t imagine for the life of me it’s going to look like that tomorrow 

[Mike Poole]

Slightly bemused at the posts saying the T168 chart was a downgrade.  But moving on, the ECM T240 looks mega

 

[knocker]

The ecm has the front impacting Northern Island and western Scotland Tuesday midnight and tracks it south east clearing the Kent coast by 1800. This is a rain. sleet and snow event with details to be sorted nearer the time. By 1800 Wednesday the associated trough has slipped south over the UK as the subtropical high amplifies in mid Atlantic.From here the main trough is relegated  down to the Mediterranean as the high ridges north east. As ever knife edges courtesy of the energy distribution

And towards the end there is some seriously cold air over southern Scandinavia

Edited January 16, 2019 by knocker

[The PIT]

10 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

ECM shows a decent snow risk for Friday. Yes the totals may be wrong but the risk is there.

The mists of uncertainty. LOL

ECM 8/10 GFS 4/10 UKMO 8/10 as far as it goes. 

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Slightly bemused at the posts saying the T168 chart was a downgrade.  But moving on, the ECM T240 looks mega

 

If I was being picky I’d like the scandi Heights cantered a bit further south. Just a bit! 

Edited January 16, 2019 by karlos1983

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Brutal cold just to the east at T240 ?

Not sure what to make of that upstream after 240 - a bit flat

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Slightly bemused at the posts saying the T168 chart was a downgrade.  But moving on, the ECM T240 looks mega

 

Wish that went one more frame . Look at that cold to the NE

[I remember Atlantic 252]

240 battle, one of these runs soon could well bring in true beast, just hope not FI

[tight isobar]

Alls is well..that ends well.

Take the raws now with a lot more credance..

And the ens/supports as a guiding line..

Rather than the opposed!!..

The crank is cranking and we should start model cross agree @even +96 hrs soon...