Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Recommended Posts

The blended solution for tonight is as follows.

UKMO / APERGE / JMA & GFS allign at 96> 120 which leads to the most amplified pattern & snow at 144-

ECM is east ( or at the Eastern point of the envelope ) at 144 & looks a bit flat ( even though its amplified

ECM eastern locale is discarded in favour of the UKMO blend tonight which TBF the UKMO has remained my choice model now for 12-18 months ...

S

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

ECH1-144.gifecm 12z..decent co-ordinates..

Await the easterly..and reasonable block format...

Looks cocked and loaded!!!

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 144...

Snow or rain...

Suspect altitude might be crucial?

Some rather chilly air in place, colder than I expected.

ECU0-144.GIF.thumb.png.ee52e3d83e0174bce437439e37cf0100.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 144...

Snow or rain...

Suspect altitude might be crucial?

-7 uppers in the west and -5 or -6 in the east might be good enough for snow at lower levels marginal in the far SE with slightly higher uppers. Edit - Day 10 beat me to it lol :oldrofl: Maybe we can finally see some of the white stuff at last!

144_mslp850uk.png

Edited by Summerstorm
  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
6 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

So, the GFS has turned up the excitement level a couple of notches today.  At last we can see something properly wintry for the whole country within less than 10 days.  Here's the GFS op showing precipitation type and snow accumulation levels from Monday to Friday next week:

image.thumb.gif.87ea3432b1bd1a4b4bd7ec5c9be1da6b.gif   image.thumb.gif.d55034c2bc838e75f67110aacc345846.gif

CAUTION:  do not take these charts as gospel...yet...but the possibility of most of us seeing a wintry spell of weather is getting more and more likely as we approach the end of the month.  It's certainly got me interested now, at any rate - but we need more support across the other models.  It's my guess that we are going to see that support by the weekend.

 

Corrrr look at all that snow still none the wiser tonight. @Steve Murr I see you blend doesn’t include the GFSp which is outperforming the soon to be redundant GFS? Or the GEM? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Certainly would have taken the ECM 168 after this mornings run, would have preferred it to be a GFS copy but as long as a decent eps mean occurs.......

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 144...

Snow or rain...

Suspect altitude might be crucial?

Look at pert 4 GFS.....we get a beauty of an easterly and then a -14 deep cold pool crossing us ....then another LP diving NW/SE running into very cold surface temps......major. That’s the one I want

 

BFTP

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Tricky this ECM op. Looks like a downgrade by T168, but look at the isobars to the north. Could result in a better easterly later. (Didn't I say that last night?!) 

Edited by Man With Beard
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

JMA looks good so far

JN156-21.GIF?16-12

 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Well it’s a funny old game this model watching now the gfs is better than the ECM . You couldn’t make it up . GFS first chart . 

78AE0F50-1D6B-46FC-B30F-86B173405656.png

5816156B-E232-42F6-8F2C-A23BC937A840.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Just now, ICE COLD said:

Well it’s a funny old game this model watching now the gfs is better than the ECM . You couldn’t make it up . GFS first chart . 

78AE0F50-1D6B-46FC-B30F-86B173405656.png

5816156B-E232-42F6-8F2C-A23BC937A840.png

For now, ECM leading to an easterly, just slower

BFTP

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Corrrr look at all that snow still none the wiser tonight. @Steve Murr I see you blend doesn’t include the GFSp which is outperforming the soon to be redundant GFS? Or the GEM? 

Didnt see the GEM or the P so exclusion only based on that fact ??

JMA blend looks great esp at 144 !

but 180 is superb

000A0D4D-ADF8-48EE-A702-858D1E40C97E.thumb.png.ca6c1fc80b9bb6fe95de114a44356edc.png

Edited by Steve Murr
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Tricky this ECM op. Looks like a downgrade by T168, but look at the isobars to the north. Could result in a better easterly later. (Didn't I say that last night?!) 

Not sure its a downgrade at T168.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
10 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Do you call that fun! I know you’re a storm junkie . Tornados are fascinating but also terrifying at the same time . I agree though could be some wild weather with that set up .

Minus the devastation they can cause, which we can all agree is utterly tragic, take for I.e greensburg - Kansas 2007 (EF5 at night  which would be terrifying), Joplin - Missouri 2011, and Moore - OK 2013/1999. I would not wish them on my worst enemy. But yes, it’s certainly on my bucket list to get out to the mid west and see some! 

Very happy to see the upgrades back from the evening runs!! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

JMA has been the most consistent of models, 10/10!:yahoo:

JE192-21.gif

JE192-7.gif

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent

ECM192 is a great chart. Look at those heights building. It's only going to get colder from that point. Good charts this evening.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...