Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

OMG what a flip feb . Like you say doesn’t happen often and definitely doesn’t usually happen in favour of cold weather. Get in there .

Yes, still need a good ECM op but more importantly a good eps, but at these short ranges the ECM op usually is a reasonable indicator of the mean so first stage - good op.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye, as good as a true beast, looks good for anywhere away from west, my area does well normally from the Wash, problem is, it's FI

[tight isobar]

Seems 2 be a few writing off the easterly!!??

Ya-couldnt want more in fact and phase..drop...align..drop align..

Some of the best have occured from such formats.

Then bang!!.

Cross support @72 hr mark..which im now even more confident of.

This is the time where the ens have had-there gain..and as losing verification in the upper layers become stale!..

Remarakably...the raws will likely be the order-of disfuse/decipher...

Go with them now.....

@ecm @gfs @ukmo @gem @jma operationals...

Edited January 16, 2019 by tight isobar

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, still need a good ECM op but more importantly a good eps, but at these short ranges the ECM op usually is a reasonable indicator of the mean so first stage - good op.

Yer definitely need a good EC op . Hope it’s decent for the sake of everyone’s stress levels

[bobbydog]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, as good as a true beast, looks good for anywhere away from west, my area does well normally from the Wash, problem is, it's FI

But the key to the easterly is the trough disruption at +144hrs

That's not F.I.....

[karlos1983]

Much better

Central England 

Sorry not posting every county or my post will be irritatingly long. So C England a good guidance for most I think.

Edited January 16, 2019 by karlos1983

[The Beast From The East]

1 hour ago, seabreeze86 said:

Always the GFS was just teasing us,  crazy upgrade 

Fantastic news after watching the icon downgrade,  we just need to finally keep the upgrades come the  early morning runs..  like I said earlier the models always get better  during the day and evenings yet come morning they revert back again... Deffinatly not imagining it lol...  Or am I? ❄☺

 

Edited January 16, 2019 by The BEAST From The East
Added

[That ECM]

24 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

The Panels at 192 are pretty tasty 

graph form should look pretty later 

 

 

Very nice. What a jump forward today 

look at the posts this morning and then this evening. Demonstrates how much most of us nutters love cold and snow. 

Boooodifull

Edited January 16, 2019 by That ECM

[Chesil View]

16 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Very nice. What a jump forward today 

look at the posts this morning and then this evening. Demonstrates how much most of us nutters love cold and snow. 

So now that tonight's GFS is a carbon copy of last night's ECM can I take that  winter is not over after all.

Just joking guys gals

certainly showing how easily the ops can jump from very cold to less cold solutions within the ensemblr envelope In Just a few hours.

Edited January 16, 2019 by Broadmayne blizzard

[booferking]

23 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Seems 2 be a few writing off the easterly!!??

Ya-couldnt want more in fact and phase..drop...align..drop align..

Some of the best have occured from such formats.

Then bang!!.

Cross support @72 hr mark..which im now even more confident of.

This is the time where the ens have had-there gain..and as losing verification in the upper layers become stale!..

Remarakably...the raws will likely be the order-of disfuse/decipher...

Go with them now.....

@ecm @gfs @ukmo @gem @jma operationals...

Best to keep all options on table until "72hr cross model support as you say" we have been there before but today has been a good trend lets see if the EC can keep it going the right way.

[snowking]

Hopefully the last 24 have shown that when we have limited resolution modelling trying to cope with the physics of an unusual stratosphere setup (ie against climatology) then nothing is certain - anybody thinking off the back of the 12z GFS suite that we’re back in the game should go back and read the last 24 hours of posts and see how quickly things can change back and change again

fascinating watching, but far from certain on any model suite right now 

Edited January 16, 2019 by snowking

[SMU]

Evening All

Been out of action today missing ( posting ) after the 00zeds- which I guess is a good thing

For me ( as highlighted last night ) the slider around 120 *when* correctly modelled should allow enough of an undercut from the continent & low enough dewpoints to *Possibly* be an all snow event for England ( E/SE )

Plus then theres tomorrow & opportunities over the weekend-

So the Easterly at day 7 is like just a huge bonus after many opportunities-

Glad the mood is upbeat as it was painful this morning...

Just an edit watch the 102 / 108 period overnight sunday into Monday for snow dropping south over the UK

Edited January 16, 2019 by Steve Murr

[edo]

1 hour ago, WINTRY WALES said:

If not and it’s back tomorrow afternoon would it be a good idea to have a thread per set of suites (6z, 12z etc) so we can compare apples with apples as per say

good idea, a doom thread and a boom thread

 

looking at both z's the last few days for Scotland we are seeing multiple chances of snow events ranging in severity but almost certainly we are in for at least a 10day period of wintry weather and potentially a memorable one. 

And contrary to belief of some we do not see snow frequently and every winter up here... we have also suffered severe snow droughts. 

[chris55]

Excellent consistency between GFS and UKMO at 144, that’s a rare statement to make.. but may speak volumes if the models can finally agree on the mid term outcome. Momentum gathering on the colder scenario shown by EC 46 anomaly charts. Let’s hope EC det follows suit. 

[snowray]

Euro4 looking even better for some snow tomorrow, north east coastal areas doing best and the highlands of course.

[winterof79]

ECM 96 and UKMO 96

Very similar

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

ECM 96 and UKMO 96

Very similar

 

UKMO better in my opinion.   -   possibly excepting the shortwave

Edited January 16, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Skyraker]

While we're waiting on the ECM, here are the Euro 4 +48 850's and DP's (presently modelled) as Fridays front slithers by.

 

[karlos1983]

UKMO looks better at 120. Let’s see what 144 brings. Although certainly an improvement on the 00z. 

Edited January 16, 2019 by karlos1983

[Skyraker]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

UKMO looks better at 120. Let’s see what 144 brings. Although certainly an improvement on the 00z. 

*cough* remember your lines chief.... 

You wait for one UKMO and two come along together

[karlos1983]

I think we can all be happy with that 144 chart. Phew 

This morning was hopefully just a blip! 

Edited January 16, 2019 by karlos1983

[Premiere Neige]

53 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

Fantastic news after watching the icon downgrade,  we just need to finally keep the upgrades come the  early morning runs..  like I said earlier the models always get better  during the day and evenings yet come morning they revert back again... Deffinatly not imagining it lol...  Or am I? ❄☺

 

No you're not. I said the very same thing this morning after a few wrist splashy type posts....

[Sky Full]

So, the GFS has turned up the excitement level a couple of notches today.  At last we can see something properly wintry for the whole country within less than 10 days.  Here's the GFS op showing precipitation type and snow accumulation levels at +162h:

      

CAUTION:  do not take these charts as gospel...yet...but the possibility of most of us seeing a wintry spell of weather is getting more and more likely as we approach the end of the month.  It's certainly got me interested now, at any rate - but we need more support across the other models.  It's my guess that we are going to see that support by the weekend.

 

 

 

Edited January 16, 2019 by Sky Full

[tight isobar]

ecm 12z..decent co-ordinates..

Await the easterly..and reasonable block format...

Edited January 16, 2019 by tight isobar

[northwestsnow]

EC 144...

Snow or rain...

Suspect altitude might be crucial?