Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Met4Cast]

GFS 12z and EC Cluster 1

Very similar, could be the start of model consensus, at least with regards to the trough disruption.. little point worrying beyond that point because what happens after depends on this first step.

I presume the "GFS must be missing data because of the government shutdown" is no longer being viewed as a potential issue now the GFS is showing what people want?

Edited January 16, 2019 by Daniel Smith

[Runcible Spoon]

12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Poor ICON...From supermodel to Katy Price in only a few days!

That's an upgrade....

Icon definitely the party pooper this afternoon so far, but entropy still very prominent across all the models. FI about 96 hrs at the mo.

I propose a vote of no confidence in the Icon and demand all models come back to this forum on Monday with a better deal we will all be able to accept.

Still think no single model has got the next week accurately modelled, more chopping and changing ahead no doubt, but my belief is that a blended solution. A cold spell looks nailed on, but nothing very notable down south in the next week showing - yet.

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, Nimbusman said:

Snow showers would be packing into eastern areas on a strengthening easterly breeze, associated uppers looking decent too. 

Just one run and from within the envelope of cold forecast. Let’s see what the ECM has to say shortly...

Yes blinding stuff, lets hope ECM comes on board now....and tomorrows 00z runs don't do a nasty on us again!

[lorenzo]

Some quality anticyclonic wave breaking on view on this run, that vortex filament gets dragged deep into the heart of Europe...

Always do love the 12z more than the 00z

[summer blizzard]

GFS12 basically gets the easterly, sinks the high a little and then repeats the process with another undercut. 

[Singularity]

So the regional stratospheric imprint N and NNE of the UK makes a sudden comeback in the GFS and UKMO output.

This has become one of the most dramatic run-ups to a cold spell that I've ever witnessed!

I did wonder what it could lead to from the east, as the 12z JMA of yesterday produced this outcome despite the trough off N. America not behaving very helpfully as it departed the landmass:

 

 

Apologies in advance to anyone initially thinking this is a 12z run from today and then being let down upon closer inspection .

GFS 12z's not far away from it though, really. Sadly, lower-res of that run has quickly taken on a pretty daft appearance from the hemispheric view but it's easy to imagine how things would go with the expected additional amplitude to the N. Atlantic pattern. This being something we've a good chance of seeing in the mid-range anyway so not worth taking anything beyond +120 that seriously (as much as you might want to with that easterly!).

[Froze were the Days]

34 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Another boom, but will it be there tomorrow morning?

exactly!! - my bet says no with this models consistency, looks like it's following ecm but a day late - the waxes and wanes continue.

[Radiating Dendrite]

So....we all ready for the ECM to backtrack now then!

Hoping we have finally got some mid range agreement from the three big models. 

[Spah1]

And you wonder why I bang on about living in Lancashire West of the M6 as being the worst place in the country for snow. 

 

Caveats aside this snow chart for Tuesday shows the potential for most to see a bit of snow. 

[bobbydog]

16 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes blinding stuff, lets hope ECM comes on board now....and tomorrows 00z runs don't do a nasty on us again!

The snow just keeps coming on this run and it's from day 6 not day 10!

[Nick F]

Well, well 12z GFS carbon copies yesterday’s 12z EC, UKMO looks to follow similar route if Trump would let us see T+168, now will today’s 12z EC put the cherry on the cake?

key difference to 00z op for getting the trough disruption appears to be buckling jet diving S further west and a lobe of the trop vortex covering Greenland and N Canada breaking free Southeastward over UK rather than remaining intact.

00z for 12z Tues 22nd

12z for 12z Tues 22nd

still need more runs to be sure of the lobe of the TPV breaking away to allow trough disruption and a deep enough low dropping SE into Europe to trigger an easterly, this reliant on the weekend  US winter storm and Canadian trough not heading too far out across the NW Atlantic and flattening the flow.

Theme on the 12z GFS op of another trough, like next week, breaking SE from the TPV over Greenland to trigger further easterly in FI.

Edited January 16, 2019 by Nick F

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

exactly!! - my bet says no with this models consistency, looks like it's following ecm but a day late - the waxes and wanes continue.

It has been poor of late but as always other models haven't been without their woes.

MY feeling is that it will be there tomorrow morning though possibly toned down a little, much better than this mornings effort though so direction of travel positive overall  

[bluearmy]

No reason for ec op to vary from the morning run - will it actually drop the trough all the way to our south it will it just offer a trough extension as earlier?

will it be just west of the meridian or just east ?

and how will upstream develop ? Will the ridge manage to stand tall for long enough or will it topple across us and forshorten any easterly ??

 

[feb1991blizzard]

STONKING GEFS SUITE UPGRADE ALERT.

Rarely seen such a change at 144 on an ensemble suite before - expect a lot more flatliners to compliment the op. Much more defined ridges occuring.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS mean Easterly at 168, and a decent one at that.

[Mucka]

GFSp an improvement on previous run at least.

[andymusic]

gfsp following on aswell - seems the main course may start now as soon as Monday evening

[Met4Cast]

Well.. that's quite a remarkable turn around on the GEFS, the Op seems to have full support of it's ensemble suite at least

[booferking]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Well.. that's quite a remarkable turn around on the GEFS, the Op seems to have full support of it's ensemble suite at least

Put the FV3 says NO to the easterly..

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 16, 2019 by booferking

[snowray]

12z mean compared to the 06z, massive upgrade for D8.

[weirpig]

Just now, booferking said:

Put the FV3 says NO..

Yep nowhere near a done deal  loads of ups and downs to go

[ICE COLD]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS mean Easterly at 168, and a decent one at that.

OMG what a flip feb . Like you say doesn’t happen often and definitely doesn’t usually happen in favour of cold weather. Get in there .

[Met4Cast]

Just now, booferking said:

Put the FV3 says NO to the easterly..

It's not a million miles away, just lacks the amplification because the system coming out of the USA faster prevents it, certainly a very real possibility of it transpiring that way, and given the GFS performance of late it's hard to get all the excited. 

One positive is that the GFS is supported somewhat by the 00z EPS, will be interesting to see which way EC Det swings this evening.

[bluearmy]

Para is the same as the ec 00z op

the gefs look like the ec mean - with only 20 members we can see how many want to new the ridge more vertically aligned 

[karlos1983]

The Panels at 192 are pretty tasty 

graph form should look pretty later