Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Nimbusman]

6 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Another boom, but will it be there tomorrow morning?

Nice chart - loaded with eastern promise, trough into Europe high developing to the north east... what’s not to like?

edit* Cold backing west in the next few frames too! 

Edited January 16, 2019 by Nimbusman

[SLEETY]

the chinese model has been the only consistent model showing the same outcome the last couple of days.one to follow now ?

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

gfs must be the most inconsistent  model ever,the way it flips and flops every run.How people say it’s the best in modelling the Atlantic must be trollingor something.

Not sure its flipped per say its slowly moved towards this solution, oher models have also moved  

[bobbydog]

And suddenly, Jeremy Corbyn withdraws his vote of no confidence in the GFS... 

[snowice]

Just now, Mucka said:

Another boom, but will it be there tomorrow morning?

Wake up in a night sweat waiting on the 00z!what Drama this model watching is. Any other year if the GFS had charts at that time range we would be posting boom charts, but it has been so poor of late don't know what to make of it. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GFS and UKMO in tandem.  A very good start to 12z.  UKMO would go on to GFS easterly.

 

BFTP

[WINTRY WALES]

6 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Another boom, but will it be there tomorrow morning?

If not and it’s back tomorrow afternoon would it be a good idea to have a thread per set of suites (6z, 12z etc) so we can compare apples with apples as per say

Edited January 16, 2019 by WINTRY WALES

[Mucka]

GEM also much improved though not quite there

 

zippidy doo da...

[tight isobar]

Well it was the writing on the wall imo...

Lets relax and await the ecm 12zs notion..

Ukmo-would likely show the opt-on waa and convert-easterly also...

Edited January 16, 2019 by tight isobar

[bluearmy]

The 12z’s so far are showing all the options on the table ......

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

I blame the amazingly good GFS on a lack of observational data 

[ICE COLD]

Just now, bluearmy said:

The 12z’s so far are showing all the options on the table ......

But can we take the icon of the table ?? 

[DanDorsetUK]

2 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

If not and it’s back tomorrow afternoon would it be a good idea to have a thread per set of suites (6z, 12z etc) so we can compare apples with apples as per say

Excellent idea! Make it so!

[Methuselah]

Po-tential! 

Edited January 16, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Polar Maritime]

Yes as others have already put the GFS is certainly showing the Turkish Delight this evening from the East. Will be an interesting ECMWF run this evening, Will it follow suit?

[Chertseystreamer79]

3 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

If not and it’s back tomorrow afternoon would it be a good idea to have a thread per set of suites (6z, 12z etc) so we can compare apples with apples as per say

I'd go with that....out of all things going on the most consistent has been this Am v Pm vibe in the models.

[summer blizzard]

The incredible thing here is that this is all occurring at just day 7. 

Comical.

Watch the Euro go for full zonality this evening, 15C across the country.

 

[Met4Cast]

Step 1: Disrupt the trough Southwards through the UK and into Europe.

GFS and UKMO both manage this and are pretty much in agreement and long last. 

Step 2 is where the transition from cold Northerly to sustained cold comes in. If high pressure can extend far enough North and East as per GFS 12z, we get this

All dependent on the Vortex over Canada. We're not even close to nailing step 2 down, but step 1 is within touching distance.. 

[phil nw.]

T168 shows even without Arctic blocking a decent wedge from the much criticised Azores high can do the job.

[Polar Maritime]

Just a quick note.. Please only sensible posts in here, One line ramps and the like will disappear, Especially during these busy periods as good posts just get lost amongst the clutter.

Thanks please continue.

[ICE COLD]

I’m so happy happy happy

[Nimbusman]

Snow showers would be packing into eastern areas on a strengthening easterly breeze, associated uppers looking decent too. 

Just one run and from within the envelope of cold forecast. Let’s see what the ECM has to say shortly...

[Purga]

Blow the wind easterly, easterly,
easterly, Blow the wind east 'cross the bonny north sea.
Blow the wind easterly, easterly,
easterly, Blow, bonny breeze, my snow fest to me!

[Weegaz]

138hrs

versus yesterday’s chart at 162hrs

Can we count down into 48hr period, hopefully so

[knocker]

The subtle differences between this gfs run and the 06, starting at T144, facilitates the advection of the colder air. 

 

Edited January 16, 2019 by Paul