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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 minute ago, Yarmy said:

Yesterday's ECM 12z T168

ECH1-168.GIF?12

Today's UKMO T144

UN144-21.GIF?16-16

 

Sharper and more aggressive ridging on yesterday's ECM.

Still, the UKMO could be a lot worse.

That sharper ridge forces the cut off high .... its small margins !

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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport

GFS 12 so much better than 06z equivalent. Yippee ki-yay mofo's 

 

gfsnh-0-138.png

gfsnh-0-144.png

Edited by No Balls Like Snow Balls
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

We need the models to consent to this at that time:

gfseu-0-138.thumb.png.d85f1133f3edaf3cc30833c8f35681ba.png

Maintain that synoptic and hope we can get improvements from there...

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Atlantic amplification is not only dependent on upstream developments but also directly linked to the trough disruption ahead.

The better the trough disruption the sharper the pattern and slower the patter creating better amplification behind.

 

This is why as with GFS 144 that finally gives good disruption the upsteam is much improved too with better amplification

gfsnh-0-144.png?12

 

 

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

A widespread heavy snow event for all at +138 on the GFS!

Not taking anything away from the 'upgrades' but it would be far more marginal that what that chart shows, obviously particularly for low lying areas. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well it should be a little further west than the 06z - what follows is also what you need to be watching ....

Trust me - look at the angle of WAA - even back in the chart i was talking about but its improved since then - dont forget a 5% change in the angle and a couple of degrees higher latitude at such short time frame will mean such WAA into the pole as it will hold the ridge long enough to get an Easterly.

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Posted
  • Location: iow england
  • Location: iow england
1 hour ago, offerman said:

Hi Snowflake,  

That's a nice chart which highlights what I often say and that is the high pressure needs to migrate further north from that position and then tilt northeast .

When it's in its current position it just produce westerly or slight more northwesterly pattern which isn't good for us. 

Atlantic basically just rides over the top of the too far south high. 

 

Thanks for the reply Offerman, I'm still quite confident that the HP will retrogress into a more favourable position, fingers crossed.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Poor ICON...From supermodel to Katy Price in only a few days!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

We finally get agreement from 2 out of the big 3, looking good.

UE144-21.gif

gfseu-0-144.png

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

Here we go......

12z GFS rollercoaster has ppn to sea level 6am.

uksnowrisk.thumb.png.5cf1c3668244f06e33f4779f8ecca9e9.png

Hail shower as of now Fylde Lancashire.

 

Edited by Iceaxecrampon
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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

Always the GFS was just teasing us,  crazy upgrade 

Screenshot_20190116-161922.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ipswich, Suffolk 72asl
  • Location: Ipswich, Suffolk 72asl
1 minute ago, booferking said:

Easterly incoming..

gfs-0-156.png

Yup looks like a nascent area of high pressure developing over the Barents Sea there...

441AC4FF-94E1-4D9A-896C-E8E235F9B5CB.png

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
5 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Not taking anything away from the 'upgrades' but it would be far more marginal that what that chart shows, obviously particularly for low lying areas. 

132-101UK.GIF?16-12132-778UK.GIF?16-12Warmer Temps but still near freezing.

If that area of Dew points gets narrowed quicker it could change.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

In fact the only thing stopping this being run of the century is that closed low over Russia, if that could have orentated favourably and aligned it so the isobars backed all the way from the UK to link with it, would have been a Jan 87 or at least a Feb/March 18 style Easterly. still good as it is.

image.thumb.png.5c575c5ead940eee30459fee284b7f89.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

Glad to see GFS improvements going against the ICON... what a ride this winter has been in terms of model watching 

Edited by Chris K
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

Hence why I said dont be so quick to write off our chances, lovely stuff from the GFS and the band of frontal snow beginning to curve back in for the SE (again dont take details to literally at this stage  just highlighting the possibilities)

 anim_lps2.thumb.gif.3e96d759bb2ee4c71a4973600e489ef7.gif  anim_asi8.thumb.gif.611b91f472959450cc05d65d3150e511.gif  gfs-2-162.thumb.png.e821d4cc6d239a19f03b0e3b20f1c7c7.png  gfs-2-168.thumb.png.1db534357cd8d7f90d4fda7f8b6db6c6.png 

push of colder 850 hPa temps heading in from the east too gfs-1-168.thumb.png.9f0692f2987f51dc9717681014796024.png 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

gfs must be the most inconsistent  model ever,the way it flips and flops every run.How people say it’s the best in modelling the Atlantic must be trolling or something.

Edited by SLEETY
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