Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[booferking]

UKMO looking good at 120hr tho ummm.

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

UKMO looking good at 120hr tho ummm.

Can see some energy digging south east.

[Polar Maritime]

Friday's Snow risk has grown a little on this evenings GFS..

[booferking]

Just now, frosty ground said:

Can see some energy digging south east.

Yes and maybe shear that low from Greenland.

[karlos1983]

YESSS - Much better from the UKMO 144

Edited January 16, 2019 by karlos1983

[Mucka]

You beauty! UKMO 144

[snowice]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

UKMO probably going to end flat, although does again seem a bit of an improvement at +120

Looks better to me!

[booferking]

Just now, booferking said:

Yes and maybe shear that low from Greenland.

And it does better run for sure from UKMO.

[Snowman.]

UKMO 144 is incredible

 

[Weathizard]

Alright called that one wrong, UKMO looks good at 144, looks quite a bit like yesterday’s 12z ECM at 168 right?

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

You beauty! UKMO 144

What are the 850s like?

[shaky]

As far as i can see theres upgrades so far this evening!!ukmo and gfs gove potential for snow from the slider atb72 hours and ukmo looks a bit better at that time frame aswell for the central swate of the uk !!and then low diving over us to give a dumping between 120 and 144 hours!!

[Polar Maritime]

Again the GFS shows the cold to the East ever slightly further West & South.

Edited January 16, 2019 by Polar Maritime

[Lampostwatcher]

Ukmo 144 

[booferking]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

What are the 850s like?

Give it 5 mins till there out..

[frosty ground]

4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

What are the 850s like?

Might be a bit colder than the ICON they come out later thou.

[snowangel32]

UKMO puts on its a Superman costume and says i aint heard no fat lady yet. Oh the drama. Have to admit after the Icon i thought it was case closed.

[snowice]

We need to wait to see ECM now for a bit of consistency! 

[bluearmy]

Ukmo pretty well bang on the ec mean at day 6 - the surprise for me was that icon was so flat 

wouldn’t expect the ec op to be different later day 6 but it’s how much the ridge gets pushed ne thereafter that’s the problem as it then gets flattened - it it can retain its vertical integrity then it can actually hold just to our west 

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Mucka said:

You beauty! UKMO 144

GFS is going to be a stonker as well - look at the amplification.

[frosty ground]

850's @144 

Looks like a snow event to me

Edited January 16, 2019 by frosty ground

[booferking]

7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

What are the 850s like?

Cold enough for snow with a sliding low.

[Yarmy]

4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Alright called that one wrong, UKMO looks good at 144, looks quite a bit like yesterday’s 12z ECM at 168 right?

Yesterday's ECM 12z T168

Today's UKMO T144

 

Sharper and more aggressive ridging on yesterday's ECM.

Still, the UKMO could be a lot worse.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Cold air gathering out East. UKMO 144

 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS is going to be a stonker as well - look at the amplification.

Well it should be a little further west than the 06z - what follows is also what you need to be watching ....