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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

A look at the 00z GFS mean u wind, can see westerly flow at 60N nullified in the troposphere at the end of the month, perhaps leading to the arctic high in the operational

uwind_00_160119.thumb.PNG.091793f2ddd735788d9b0e61e8f23b54.PNGGFSOPEU00_372_1.thumb.png.d5566e00bce065c246c1ca9637239f2b.png

However, the u wind plot not quite as impressive as the 12z yesterday which had u wind reversal to easterly in the troposphere at the end the month.

12zGFS_uwind.JPG.df8d2ece2631c762b05fbb60dc86cd38.thumb.jpg.b7b343f3c1cd83cbc9cdc744e21e18aa.jpg

In the meantime, least the 06z, after hopefully a wobble, is back on track with trough disruption from Iceland down across UK before pressure builds in between the Azores and Scandinavia to bring a slack but cold E or NE flow from mid-week next week. The Canadian Vortex not quite as intense and pushing east out into the NW Atlantic as 00z, the eastern US trough sharper and winter storm also not tracking too far east out into the Atlantic too - which is important. Upper ridge over Scandi and northwest toward Greenland, though looking weak on charts, also plays a role in trough disruption early next week

For 18z Tuesday 22nd:

00z                                                           

GFSOPEU00_162_1.thumb.png.e9b7980a1d6cd89082cf426e08b81de1.png

06z

GFSOPEU06_156_1.thumb.png.009987c4e991d76ec570a8eb15d1f915.png

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
15 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Not much wrong with these

image.thumb.png.60a812cae81256163f6281adfd7be4c1.png

Lost count the times that NCEP/GFS is on the mild side of the spread generally throughout! Must admit my confidence in the model's operational runs with handling trough disruption is at an all-time low. At least the 00z FV3/PARA picked up on the trough disruption SE over UK, which seems more likely given guidance, compared to the 00z op taking the low east to our north.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

 

 

How's this looking today Nick?

TIA

The strat is a little less good (reflecting the less good trop op) and the ens means are a tad less amplified although not greatly so

 

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

looks  nice  at 192  hr!!

gens-16-1-192.png

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I personally as a cold weather fan am looking for something really cold, as oppose to just cooler and marginal for snow. From looking through GFS and EC spreads this seems to be getting more and more unlikely in the upcoming 12 day period. I’m just hoping we get height rises either around Greenland or Scandanavia as we approach the end of the month (which i believe is possible reading up on background signals and trends). This seems like our best chance of seeing something notable this winter. Here is hoping anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
10 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Just gone through the GEFS there are some belters in there ………….all good still me thinks 

If you go through this thread you will find dozens and dozens of great GEFS and individual GEFS and none of them have come to pass.

What we need to see is consistency in the ops runs in FI pointing to "belters".

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands

Ironically Met said rain for Fri here now it says snow. Just goes to show that no one has a clue until that storm in the US is resolved. OOZ were disappointing but really only slight changes make big differences as the gfs 6z demonstrated with a notable shift west of the trough and the ridge. At least there's no way the second half of Winter can be as dull as the 1st. See I am thinking glass half full. Let's hope the afternoon runs brighten the mood again last nite was buzzing.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 6z mean looks generally rather cold and changeable / unsettled throughout, some less cold interludes but also potential for some very cold weather, especially further north. There would be at least some sleet and snow and not just on northern hills but the highest risk would be with elevation and further north..also frosts and icy patches aplenty..a wintry update just released too!!❄️

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
2 hours ago, winterof79 said:

Yes I would guess the " Snow anywhere" may make a reappearance

Nice to move back towards the col theme again on the 6Z etc calm a few 

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

If you go through this thread you will find dozens and dozens of great GEFS and individual GEFS and none of them have come to pass.

What we need to see is consistency in the ops runs in FI pointing to "belters".

So???

The point is they are there , there have also been some very mild ones and the same can be said 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 hour ago, snowangel32 said:

Ironically Met said rain for Fri here now it says snow. Just goes to show that no one has a clue until that storm in the US is resolved. OOZ were disappointing but really only slight changes make big differences as the gfs 6z demonstrated with a notable shift west of the trough and the ridge. At least there's no way the second half of Winter can be as dull as the 1st. See I am thinking glass half full. Let's hope the afternoon runs brighten the mood again last nite was buzzing.

The whole pattern is one that will produce ‘surprise’ snowfalls and risks that appear at very short notice. Just unlikely to last long away from high ground.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: iow england
  • Location: iow england

image.thumb.png.22b94c3ead5747bf38e4e0f4e1eef2b4.png

Looks quite mobile this morning with a cool zonal  flow. The snap shot indicates a transient  cold spell where the country is bathed in sub 528 for a short time. Let hope the models revert back to a more amplified setup latter on in the day.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Well the GFS ensembles are even more all over the play than yesterdays GFS runs, from D6 onwards there's a spread over over 20c from the mildest to the coldest, so FI starts at D6, probably sooner. graphe_ens3.thumb.gif.69233e64fab71364c74faea3e913602a.gif

 

At the end of the day we don't need -10/-12c uppers for snowfall, which is what most of us are after, GFS still showing the snow event for next week, happy with that for now in this so far snowless winter (for 90% of us anyway).156-7UK.thumb.gif.a732b14c29a9f520808c7ec0ce9d464f.gif144-574UK.thumb.gif.39638c16ba69dd0b226e2fbe0cb36c2a.gif150-574UK.thumb.gif.0159b08062e17d828b7d409fb847c39a.gif156-574UK.thumb.gif.2b05d242171d069e4b98ed16497ba1d7.gifgfs-16-156.thumb.png.07fdb25852a2ad2bdb3ce14d2f29f3d2.png

Going forward to D7/8 still lots to get excited about, ECM and NAVGEM both looking cold. Overall I'm still very optimistic for a cold February and an easterly or north easterly.

 

ECM1-192.gif

navgemeu-0-180.png

ECE0-192.png

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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
13 minutes ago, snowflakey said:

image.thumb.png.22b94c3ead5747bf38e4e0f4e1eef2b4.png

Looks quite mobile this morning with a cool zonal  flow. The snap shot indicates a transient  cold spell where the country is bathed in sub 528 for a short time. Let hope the models revert back to a more amplified setup latter on in the day.

Hi Snowflake,  

That's a nice chart which highlights what I often say and that is the high pressure needs to migrate further north from that position and then tilt northeast .

When it's in its current position it just produce westerly or slight more northwesterly pattern which isn't good for us. 

Atlantic basically just rides over the top of the too far south high. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Liversedge, West Yorkshire ASL : 74m
  • Location: Liversedge, West Yorkshire ASL : 74m

Off topic in that I'm not looking at chart specifics, but model wise, does this new IBM model run alongside existing models or is it a replacement for an existing older version?

https://venturebeat.com/2019/01/08/ibm-announces-high-precision-weather-model-new-quantum-computer-design-and-enhanced-project-debater/

Edited by BA Baracus
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