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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
20 hours ago, Glacier Point said:

GEFS undergoing major correction towards EPS in the day 8 / 9 range in the NE Atlantic, and that substantively opening the door for Greenland height rises days 12+

I guess this is still worth bearing in mind from 20 hours ago, if this still holds true?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Some possible tornadoes then as well as snow coming in on the wrap around behind the storm. Ah the US always gets the real fun stuff! 

Do you call that fun! I know you’re a storm junkie . Tornados are fascinating but also terrifying at the same time . I agree though could be some wild weather with that set up .

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

I said yesterday that ECM and GFS would meet in the middle today, here is the 2 charts from yesterday’s ECM and GFS and today’s ECM. Perhaps a little too much GFS bashing yesterday ?

A5A1692E-2434-49F5-8547-81FC63F24A66.png

7B83FED1-0D4D-41B1-80EA-15603556EEBE.gif

9E174A87-5208-460E-B3AA-17C8E1643047.gif

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham

graphe3_1000_249_23___.gif

Looks to me that the Ensembles are looking at a split between the 22nd-25th, This increase in temps around that time has been picking up more support ecen an operation has shown it yesterday.

The morning runs may well be the final outcome but I doubt that and a coming together of all the models onto the final solution, seems to be still out of reach. 

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I said yesterday that ECM and GFS would meet in the middle today, here is the 2 charts from yesterday’s ECM and GFS and today’s ECM. Perhaps a little too much GFS bashing yesterday ?

A5A1692E-2434-49F5-8547-81FC63F24A66.png

7B83FED1-0D4D-41B1-80EA-15603556EEBE.gif

9E174A87-5208-460E-B3AA-17C8E1643047.gif

Let’s reserve judgement till we actually get to the dates shown on those maps. 

Edited by mulzy
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
2 minutes ago, jayb1989 said:

One thing i don’t understand as a newbie, i’ve seen a few people question data input for the GFS on occasions, it seems to me that this is more often than not when the OP run is not showing what people really want.. is there actual data issues?

Sometimes there’s a lack of observational data in certain areas .

NCEP have said this on many occasions , certain parts of the Pacific are often cited . However it’s unlikely to just effect the GFS and will effect the other models aswell .

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
15 minutes ago, shaky said:

Any news on ecm ensemble mean!

Well to my untrained eye these are a fair set.....Easterly / North Easterly option on the table as the wind chart indicates

Screenshot_20190116-083400_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20190116-083548_Chrome.jpg

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Let’s reserve judgement till we actually get to the dates shown on those maps. 

Indeed so Mulzy.  

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall

And this is why you shouldn't ramp one run and overnight it has decided to downgrade

Now hopefully it's just a bilp but to be fair the GFS even though it has been bashed to oblivion...it could be right so I wouldn't discount it 

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Posted
  • Location: Herts
  • Location: Herts
12 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I said yesterday that ECM and GFS would meet in the middle today, here is the 2 charts from yesterday’s ECM and GFS and today’s ECM. Perhaps a little too much GFS bashing yesterday ?

A5A1692E-2434-49F5-8547-81FC63F24A66.png

7B83FED1-0D4D-41B1-80EA-15603556EEBE.gif

9E174A87-5208-460E-B3AA-17C8E1643047.gif

It would be really helpful to compare like with like here. I would like to see the 0z charts from yesterday and today compared. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

ECM Moyennes not too shabby

144z  168z 192z

 

EDM1-144.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

 well disappointing to say the least anyway looking at the ECMWF this morning and last night GFS I think come next week it will be a blend between EC and GFS a half way house I think that this is what will happen 

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
8 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

And this is why you shouldn't ramp one run and overnight it has decided to downgrade

Now hopefully it's just a bilp but to be fair the GFS even though it has been bashed to oblivion...it could be right so I wouldn't discount it 

It was 2 runs like for like text book stuff you shouldn't ramp anything that's not 72hr are under you mean.

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
17 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Let’s reserve judgement till we actually get to the dates shown on those maps. 

......which means "look out of the window"?

Computers eh?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
10 hours ago, bluearmy said:

How long have you been doing this Ed???

Too long?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Too long?

Ditto:crazy:

At least we are not looking at a mild outlook, the GEFS 00z mean doesn't indicate anything mild, just less cold at times with an increasingly zonal set up with northern hills / mountains doing well for snow.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Just out of curiosity, what’s the reaction if the 06z shows blocking akin to ECM from the 12z of yesterday? :shok:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

The ECM mean doesn't look that dissimilar from last night's op run.

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