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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

What is going on with 0z runs this question needs answering! Why does 0z runs always backtrack only for this to improve throughout the day? Is it actually programmed into the models? Is the 0z run actually the most reliable run or the 12z? Think this needs looking into cos I'm getting the feeling 0z is more reliable based on the fact were always chasing phantom eastilies in 12z runs. 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

192-ECM.... Nice one (and yes, I'm being sarcastic there) 

Where's Daniel BTW? Would be interested in his thoughts. 

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Yep, a definite move towards last night's gfs...positives, still cold, disruptive trough over the UK, very cold to the east with snow risk for central and eastern areas.

ECMOPEU00_168_1-2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Midlothian
  • Location: Midlothian
4 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

What is going on with 0z runs this question needs answering! Why does 0z runs always backtrack only for this to improve throughout the day? Is it actually programmed into the models? Is the 0z run actually the most reliable run or the 12z? Think this needs looking into cos I'm getting the feeling 0z is more reliable based on the fact were always chasing phantom eastilies in 12z runs. 

what do you mean by improve throughout the day? we don’t know what set are correct so the morning runs may be on the money. Or do you mean improve as in ‘the coldest’ solution? Remember almost people prefer mild so it could be seen as the opposite 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
3 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Yep, a definite move towards last night's gfs...positives, still cold, disruptive trough over the UK, very cold to the east with snow risk for central and eastern areas.

ECMOPEU00_168_1-2.png

Yes if it's not showing a beast this place is like a kindergarten. Plenty of snow chances starting this weekend.

ECH1-192.gif

ECM0-192.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Reminds me of a couple of years ago, maybe 3 when the ec46 relentlessly promised winter wonderland that never materialised. This could be ecm's worst hour. 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The ec ops yesterday looked overlooked on the WAA off the esb and this morning, unfortunately for chances of a quick cut off n Atlantic high,  backs that up ... none of the models are in agreement and unsurprisingly, the model itself backs away ....it remains in line with its eps mean 

Edited by bluearmy
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After years of watching models did anyone really expect the ECM not to back track? The GFS is a worthy model and compliments (balances) the ECM very well.

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

The ECM backtracks but still looks nothing like the GFS, still a lot of uncertainty but can't help feeling deflated

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

An option from the other end of the envelope of solutions on this mornings ECM. About as like to be dead on money as last night's at ten days out.

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Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
10 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Yes if it's not showing a beast this place is like a kindergarten. Plenty of snow chances starting this weekend.

ECH1-192.gif

ECM0-192.gif

Have to agree there are plenty snow chances without a easterly! ⛄

Edited by Penicuikblizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The ec ops yesterday looked overlooked on the WAA off the esb and this morning, unfortunately for chances of a quick cut off n Atlantic high,  backs that up ... none of the models are in agreement and unsurprisingly, the model itself backs away ....it remains in line with its eps mean 

Indeed, nothing has really changed if you follow the means. Last night’s 12z op was at the cold end of the spread, and yesterday’s 0z op was on the mean. 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm also has the trough moving east over Iceland at the beginning of next with the associated front just approaching north west Scotland by midnight Tuesday. But with the subtropical high surging strongly in mid Atlantic it will be pushed south by the 160kt jet and weaken so only patchy rain, sleet and drizzle.Thereafter the ridge comes under pressure from the the energy exiting the eastern seaboard and the colder air will be pushed south by an approaching warm front

T162.thumb.png.ec123dcfeb2f818ac7bb0b2371f14acf.pngT228.thumb.png.58417048d1bbf6a66f5b7917267dd875.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
7 minutes ago, DCee said:

After years of watching models did anyone really expect the ECM not to back track? The GFS is a worthy model and compliments (balances) the ECM very well.

Enough with this ECM vs GFS nonsense!

GFS has changed considerably this morning too!

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Looking intetesting for some this weekend as the rain comes up against some cold air.

19011800_1600 (1).gif

19011800_1600.gif

19011800_1600 (2).gif

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Awaits 10 day potential northerly on EC . anyway I guess barring boredom and frustration the EC does sit within its theme ete.

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
7 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Looking intetesting for some this weekend as the rain comes up against some cold air.

19011800_1600 (1).gif

19011800_1600.gif

19011800_1600 (2).gif

Agree. We need to stop getting hung up on runs that aren’t within 2-3 days. So many surprises often tend to crop up at short notice under our noses. We need to see what actually happens regarding the Nor’easter off the eastern seaboard. At the moment, it’s like watching the models throw mud at the wall and seeing where it lands before the unfolding of the actual event and where it properly lands. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
1 minute ago, Yarmy said:

Indeed, nothing has really changed if you follow the means. Last night’s 12z op was at the cold end of the spread, and yesterday’s 0z op was on the mean. 

Interesting to see where this run falls. What I note is just how damn annoying it is for UK cold weather fans. So often it's the UK stuck in its own little mild sector compared to Europe at that latitude and sometimes even the neighbouring Atlantic. 

anim_grp6.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Troughing in our locale still the front runner even on the GEFS

 

Screenshot_20190116-072430_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20190116-072414_Chrome.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

not all is lost!!

No it isn't,  but its still manyana manyana,  we just cannot get the boom or even semi boom charts inside T+192

We have been chasing in the T+240 range all Winter.

 

 

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