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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Ensemble mean at odds with EC46, that's for sure

image.thumb.png.b2bef7db5e5bb60acdb74ce02a1eb233.png

And the GFS has 0% support from the EC

997769FA-4360-44DD-863F-7D56A1F075B7.thumb.png.40dfb576c358abd58df1de6726c19193.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Least it's the models with the worst verification stats and lowest resolutions that are poor, waiting for ecm to restore the balance, hopefully

Oh most of them then ha ha  

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

And the GFS has 0% support from the EC

997769FA-4360-44DD-863F-7D56A1F075B7.thumb.png.40dfb576c358abd58df1de6726c19193.png

Matters not one jot if the EC turns out to be wrong. 

Not sure what your issue is, I've not dismissed cold and/or snow chances anywhere... And I've repeatedly said that I expect a Scandi high month's end. 

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Matters not one jot if the EC turns out to be wrong

How comes it doesn't matter I don't understand. 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

How comes it doesn't matter I don't understand. 

Because it'll all be academic and water under the bridge by that point as the clusters will have been wrong (in that scenario) 

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

And the GFS has 0% support from the EC

997769FA-4360-44DD-863F-7D56A1F075B7.thumb.png.40dfb576c358abd58df1de6726c19193.png

not strictly true, dont forget that a high anomaly in the Greenland locale can still mean a vortex, a low one is a vortex by definition - because the climatology is a vortex.

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

What is it about the 0z runs - they always downgrade cold scenarios. 

I would be shocked if the ECM and it's clusters are so wrong given the timescale. 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

not strictly true, dont forget that a high anomaly in the Greenland locale can still mean a vortex, a low one is a vortex by definition - because the climatology is a vortex.

He owns a weather website (I think) you'd think (hope) he would already know that. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Best we can hope for now is ECM op and ens to hold firm and see if we can have another go tonight at reversing it, can't see the 6z gefs all swinging back in one go

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

At least GFSp gives it a go even if it fails by taking too much of the split energy NE.

gfsnh-0-168.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Not much in GFS ensembles to suggest any deep cold 

graphe3_1000_267_117___.gif

London temps certainly don't look much like last nights ECM's either

graphe6_1000_294_145___.gif

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Back to hoping EC is on target!!

Agree with the others, 00z runs are not pretty viewing..

Not liking the look of that low coming off the ESB at 144 or either UKMO or GFS..

UKMO 144

image.thumb.png.0fbd2b58f341d8bd5910ef25fcfd9863.png

Think its fair to say if EC looks much like that then we have a major problem..(look at the tilt on the azores high)

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m

As my inactivity on here would suggest and for a fair few others two, I don't see anything over the horizon yet apart from typical uk winter weather, nothing special. 

The conclusion to be taken from the charts in a semi-reliable timeframe at the moment is cold shots from a north/north west/west source, interspersed with milder wetter interludes.

What we are all looking for is major blocking over greenland/scandinavia with deep cold advected over our shaws.. Only the ECM comes close to that and my got feeling will be a backtrack on the next ECM output. Hope I'm wrong and the ECM produces another beauty with gfs following behind but I really can't see it.

Not saying we won't see stellar charts in the future but, for now it's still a waiting game!

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Arghhhhhh !!

 

I posted last night how it would be nice to go to work in a good mood for a change...00z continue their miserable output! Area to watch is 144 that low exiting Canada needs to head ne and not east past southern Greenland....check out differences between ukmo this morning and ecm last night...

 

UKMOPEU00_144_1-5.png

ECMOPEU12_168_1-1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Disappointing to say the very least 

I was really hoping this morning would be the beginning of some stellar charts- of course EC may stick to its guns, after viewing GFS(GEFS) ICON and UKMO its hard to believe it will..

We will find out very soon!

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
13 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Arghhhhhh !!

 

I posted last night how it would be nice to go to work in a good mood for a change...00z continue their miserable output! Area to watch is 144 that low exiting Canada needs to head ne and not east past southern Greenland....check out differences between ukmo this morning and ecm last night...

 

UKMOPEU00_144_1-5.png

ECMOPEU12_168_1-1.png

Always the same though, alarm goes off at 5am and the first thing I reach for is my phone half expecting to see downgrades and without fail there always is but always things upgrade again through the day  and gradual come the evening runs everything looks ok again... 

Hope today is the same and that the ECM holds firm .. . Soon find out.. 

Edited by The BEAST From The East
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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

Sometime at the beginning of this meteorological winter I have seen a link to a video - presentation by Ed Berry (GSDM). GSDM synoptic modeling seem to be the subseasonal forecasting tool that most respected meteorologists/posters use. No if you would watch that video he said somewhere in the early part that NAO is impossible to forecast beyond week 2.

Also you would have seen that despite some of the bullish seasonal forecasts and long range models, you just HAVE to take this in to consideration - the volatility of the forecast on NAO region. On the other side unfortunately for UK it is the NAO that most of the time dictates weather cold and snow get here

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Posted
  • Location: New hartley. South East Northumberland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: New hartley. South East Northumberland

These are not looking good for a cold outbreak. Lots of ramping on here last night after one ecm run. Discount the gfs at your peril.372578019_Screenshot_20190116-062733_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.7f37010fc25618efccfb8c85a6f70159.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

ECM 144- not as good as last night's but better than the others... Pretty much sums it up. Depends what that low off the ESB does now. Not as much N curvature on it as the 12z

Edited by CreweCold
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4 minutes ago, Northumberland snowman said:

These are not looking good for a cold outbreak. Lots of ramping on here last night after one ecm run. Discount the gfs at your peril.372578019_Screenshot_20190116-062733_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.7f37010fc25618efccfb8c85a6f70159.jpg

All that tells me is the ridiculous amount of uncertainty for next week's weather, low pressure track.... We're still looking at colder weather becoming established by the end of the month and into February as a longer term trend. Next week doesn't look as snowy as it could have been but the output is still encouraging in broader terms, blocking, etc.

Edited by Liima
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

The difference between ECM and GFS over the Arctic is hugee for 144 hours

ECH1-144.GIFgfsnh-0-144.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
9 minutes ago, Liima said:

All that tells me is the ridiculous amount of uncertainty for next week's weather, low pressure track.... We're still looking at colder weather becoming established by the end of the month and into February as a longer term trend. Next week doesn't look as snowy as it could have been but the output is still encouraging in broader terms, blocking, etc.

Yes GFS no idea after day 5

graphe3_1000_264_48___.gif

ECM and UKMO at144z similar and ECM 168z

 

ECM1-144 (1).gif

UW144-21.gif

ECM1-168.gif

It is going cold despite the drama in here

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

ECM 168 Similar to GFSp only better upstream and sends a little less energy NE

ECH1-168.GIF?16-12

Edited by Mucka
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