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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

JMA got the right idea. Stunning chart .

It had pretty good idea last night as well.  Signals for major cold spell mounting today, that's my impression anyway! 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Just want to add don't expect the GEFS to suddenly flip to that of the ECM solution type, IF the ECM is correct the GEFS will take a little bit longer to get on board. 

Other than that, best day out of all the recent days in terms of cold prospects, we actually have sufficient blocking being shown on runs and not even that far into the future either, just pray for the UKMO to be the EC's bed tomorrow morning!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Decent support on the clusters for the negative tilted trough off the esb although the op cluster has the ridge bit further east 

also, in the midst of the extended entropy of 6 clusters, the two largest options (>50%) end up with greeny heights over 552 dam although kriss will be worrying about west based neg NAO’s, particularly on one of them 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

Just want to add don't expect the GEFS to suddenly flip to that of the ECM solution type, IF the ECM is correct the GEFS will take a little bit longer to get on board. 

Other than that, best day out of all the recent days in terms of cold prospects, we actually have sufficient blocking being shown on runs and not even that far into the future either, just pray for the UKMO to be the EC's bed tomorrow morning!

Slightly - only very slightly mind you, better amplification on the 18z at 144, but that could make a big difference come 216 with an ens suite.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It had pretty good idea last night as well.  Signals for major cold spell mounting today, that's my impression anyway! 

Yes Mike it’s picked up the pace today big time . It’s heading one way , the cold way . Praying that we’re still heading the right way in the morning . 

Night All 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
6 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Just want to add don't expect the GEFS to suddenly flip to that of the ECM solution type, IF the ECM is correct the GEFS will take a little bit longer to get on board. 

Other than that, best day out of all the recent days in terms of cold prospects, we actually have sufficient blocking being shown on runs and not even that far into the future either, just pray for the UKMO to be the EC's bed tomorrow morning!

The gefs.

Should indeed flip or align!!.

The operational..will likely be the lag-failing evolution..

In such dramatics/dynamics..The supporting datas..will be the game changer..

Not a 100%- but the starting pointer.

With a quick jump and resolve via there op-suite!!..soon after!...

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

ECM ens - one straggler nearly hits -16c uppers for my area in the extended!!!

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
46 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

WAA over West Greenland rather than mid Greenland. We know what that leads to...

Winter storm coming out the US Plains and deepening up through eastern US seaboard gonna provide some decent WAA toward Greenland over the weekend and into early next week  - this storm could have implications too for the way the low dives SE from Iceland toward NW Europe next week - perhaps why it's looking messy with trough disruption and how strong ridging will be to our NW.

gfsgif.thumb.gif.1317dffa7906e630fad270db81f83060.gif

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM ens - one straggler nearly hits -16c uppers for my area in the extended!!!

Straggler ?? That’s the trend setter feb .

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
23 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Well the upper high has finally got going and developing a ridge, but there is an utter dearth of cold air due to the upper low that lingers near our shores and mixes out any cold we do get. Also the pattern may start to flatten upstream again by 312hrs and so any cold that does make it may not last that long.

Fairly poor GFS 18z all things considered, especially given how strong the arctic high becomes.

I'd say give it a chance. By this time tomorow expect big upgrades to gfs output as it finally catches up with stra and trop events 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Very consistent mean from gfs and ecm at 144!

 

 

Unfortunately the GEFS have stuck at 144 though.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Well that was hilarious watching GFS use every dirty trick in the book to stop the widespread HLB delivering us cold beyond the middle of next week!

Largely set in motion by it failing to separate areas of low heights (common GFS shortfall) plus the usual poleward bias.

If trends continue HLB-wise, especially N and NE of the UK, such a long-lived ‘trolling’ outcome will soon be invalidated (I’m not ruling out temporary LP position / alignment frustrations as those are unfortunately quite common).

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

GFSP looking slightly more amplified out to +138 hours. 

12z vs 18z.

gfsp1.png

gfsp2.png

Another step in the right direction?

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

Euro 4 for Thursday, some surprises coming I think. Several cm possible in some lucky eastern counties.

83CA31EA-0DA0-4559-A38A-456E4E951CD3.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFSP looking slightly more amplified out to +138 hours. 

12z vs 18z.

gfsp1.png

gfsp2.png

Another step in the right direction?

Not a huge step towards the ECM from the GFSP in the end, but a step nonetheless. Hopefully that continues tomorrow!

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

The last Beast from the East in my neck of the woods 6ft  snow drifts all roads blocked off for 7 days.

Potential for another cracking easterly 

GFS seems frantic on the 18z. 

Nice ECM tonight lets hope that low coming of North America isn't going to affect this to much. 

20180301_140303.jpg

20180301_135258.jpg

Edited by sorepaw1
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
29 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM ens - one straggler nearly hits -16c uppers for my area in the extended!!!

Getting near that minus 20c we talked about last night then daytime highs around minus 3 at minus16 hpa I think, not bad

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

Please note that there are threads for the Met office longer range forecasts. Please use these threads for discussions relating to these forecasts as they will be removed from the Model thread which is busy enough with the current output.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

A warmer continental easterly here now by the GFS P. The synoptic pattern is there again but you just need that cold pool to feed on!

And then as if by magic we go on to form our own cold pool!

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

GEFS 18z seem to be stuck on meteociel but the anomaly charts seem to be fine on here 

264h gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_45.thumb.png.8b3774e0c3b3a609f282ab4c8143503c.png  306h gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_52.thumb.png.add52a39a74c2ffe3d6de1e1ad0539c7.png  384h gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.thumb.png.6c10a6aba066b5a835afe2ced8074ad0.png days 10 - 14 gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_10.thumb.png.8b2363b360a449882f2a520337465da7.png 

days 11-15 981744243_gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_11(1).thumb.png.6a067b78143b67b7e8ff223cc4b4e9aa.png  days 12 - 16 gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_12.thumb.png.935a23453900f5597951e87567119243.png  a few others gfs-ens_mslpaMean_nhem_12.thumb.png.ba83f59d76a1ba772a6d31c2a3fed079.png  gfs-ens_mslpa_nhem_44.thumb.png.6c42ec009b1843c683ed6f41d1c0f082.png gfs-ens_mslpa_nhem_50.thumb.png.f12cc3992bbf5d0852fb252da6ba1940.png gfs-ens_mslpa_nhem_65.thumb.png.f9227a9ff8103ec6bec045a693bac126.png  still on route for blocking   

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
18 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Getting near that minus 20c we talked about last night then daytime highs around minus 3 at minus16 hpa I think, not bad

Did you find out if the year was 1895 btw?

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
4 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

GEFS 18z seem to be stuck on meteociel but the anomaly charts seem to be fine on here 

264h gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_45.thumb.png.8b3774e0c3b3a609f282ab4c8143503c.png  306h gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_52.thumb.png.add52a39a74c2ffe3d6de1e1ad0539c7.png  384h gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.thumb.png.6c10a6aba066b5a835afe2ced8074ad0.png days 10 - 14 gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_10.thumb.png.8b2363b360a449882f2a520337465da7.png 

days 11-15 981744243_gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_11(1).thumb.png.6a067b78143b67b7e8ff223cc4b4e9aa.png  days 12 - 16 gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_12.thumb.png.935a23453900f5597951e87567119243.png  a few others gfs-ens_mslpaMean_nhem_12.thumb.png.ba83f59d76a1ba772a6d31c2a3fed079.png  gfs-ens_mslpa_nhem_44.thumb.png.6c42ec009b1843c683ed6f41d1c0f082.png gfs-ens_mslpa_nhem_50.thumb.png.f12cc3992bbf5d0852fb252da6ba1940.png gfs-ens_mslpa_nhem_65.thumb.png.f9227a9ff8103ec6bec045a693bac126.png  still on route for blocking   

 

What does that mean in layman's terms and what are the areas showing please 

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