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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

OK, a comparison between the GFS 18z at 138 vs the ECM and UKMO at 144

GFS image.thumb.png.3a05bb0dda0814f84f427c0b92045b96.png ECM image.thumb.png.baf2de20d334a99b398d20bd0e9fef15.png UK image.thumb.png.b962e06663c9b993ba1b05b41c98b5bc.png

GFS is looking very like the ECM, UKMO on it's own!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
3 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Wondering if the 18z may move even more to ecm? Would be good to see, oh and now we are starting to see some snaw chances where is mr snaw himself? He’s disappeared. Maybe he’s getting his sledge ready 

Are you talking about more snow?  i was watching the banter thread and all his posts are now under guest! no idea what that means maybe left the site or something like that i would say. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Just now, chionomaniac said:

Mark my words this gts run is going to be better. Look at the difference in mid Atlantic trough separation and amplification compared to last run at t+132

Hope your right C . This place will go into meltdown if it moves towards the EC

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Gfs 18z..

As thought..

See the separation.

And angle of-atlantic jet-dip..

Its the ecm haunting the sister mod!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
7 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Wondering if the 18z may move even more to ecm? Would be good to see, oh and now we are starting to see some snaw chances where is mr snaw himself? He’s disappeared. Maybe he’s getting his sledge ready 

Yea it's getting there that's for sure.

gfsnh-0-156.png

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
17 minutes ago, Nick F said:

While the 18z roll us out, noticed the 12z GFS is finally picking up on the easterly winds pushing down through the stratosphere making their imprint in the troposphere, -5 u-wind below 500mb at the end of the month, this infers high latitude blocking to develop.

12zGFS_uwind.thumb.JPG.23cc2f23280b4ab3f24f44b0fa7d1ea7.JPG

Couple this with impressive Rossby wave breaking over the N Atlantic in response to upstream deep cold vortex lobe pushed south across N America, as shown towards the tropopause in the 315K chart from 12z EC below, 

loop.thumb.gif.ba847c607684df2c94a213530240aece.gif

this wave breaking is usually the precursor to omega blocking highs that have staying power, you can even make out the omega shape, the block favoured by EC to be over far N Atlantic/Greenland/Iceland. This block further re-inforced by the easterly wind imprint from the lower stratosphere dripping down. This pattern could be hard to shift it forms, thanks to forces from above and below.

 

Indeed we've just endured a 3 week period of an omega block, but unfortunately the centre of the block was over the UK and the cold was spilled out down through central and eastern europe - alas this time round the centre should be much further to the west, enabling the cold to spill down over the UK - that't the theory - anyhow given how weak the zonal westerlies are forecast to be over coming weeks, then such a pattern should have a long holding power - the theme since the SSW last year, we've had long lengthy locked in periods of similiar weather - with the atlantic in slumber throughout.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Not all that different from the 12z ECM thus far on the GFS. I think the 18z GFS will probably still initially favour the Scandi high rather than Greenland looking at the way the LP over NE Canada is deepening and the slant of it, but got to think that any true northern blocking wouldn't be far behind.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

ECM ensembles - the mean daily maximum goes below 5C on Thursday, and then never gets back to 5C until the end of the run on the 30th. In fact after the weekend the mean maximum stays below 3C until the 30th. An extended spell of cold coming up. But the snow depths have dropped in the past 36 hours. 

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Pub run vs ECM at 162/168 - CHECK!

ECM image.thumb.png.42a1028e8f957629e17c531b285b26cf.png GFS image.thumb.png.3a10cd7893dd8d109ea5d5c26d019957.png

 Whilst not all the way there, this is a big move by the GFS, and by THE PUB RUN 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

The pacific sector being modeled a tad better here..

and falls in line..

The 18z should start 2 note the energy notions..and alarm the split..

And yes in the correct sectors!!

gfsnh-0-162.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Just now, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.d0859378c97645896cc171375c79673b.png

168..

That will do!!

Super chart somebody must have rebooted The GFS.It is smelling the coffee! Or Sherry

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
2 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

Just remember folks that the GFS wont suddenly just flip to ECM output it will do it bit by bit hoping that nobody notices it.

Please don’t expect the GFS to move totally towards tonight’s ECM 12z. Anyone thinking that is setting themselves up for disappointment!

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Very big steps towards the ECM. Even if it doesn’t fully make it on this run.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Please don’t expect the GFS to move totally towards tonight’s ECM 12z. Anyone thinking that is setting themselves up for disappointment!

exactly what i said!! i must be talking to myself. i clearly said the GFS WONT flip totally to the ECM.

Edited by bigsnow
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