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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

BBC 10 day video showed both the ECM and GFS output for next week and said there is currently no favoured evolution.

As GFS has swung towards ECM , I'd be happy with their prognosis 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Looks as if everything's positive: HLB, easterly winds and snow at times...What could be better?:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

BBC 10 day video showed both the ECM and GFS output for next week and said there is currently no favoured evolution.

They sure did . Watch this space . They showed the low sliding into Southern Europe. Think we’re take that one

69847EDC-F800-426A-A113-EDC21812325E.png

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Actually, when they showed what they said the American model (GFS) is showing, it had the high pressure over the UK centred further south with milder Atlantic air coming over the top of it. It looked worse than the GFS op really

They did also show the ECM outlook, with cold easterly winds bringing in snow showers.

High uncertainty basically. Depends how far north that area of high pressure sets up.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

The charts ba has posted shows the geopotential height anomaly towards the lower reaches of the stratosphere. It shows that the SSW has downwelled to the level just above the trop and significantly so. It favours trop HLBs gig time! That is a very negative NAM which translates to a very negative AO

So negatives that are a positive! all sound dam good to me. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Actually, when they showed what they said the American model (GFS) is showing, it had the high pressure over the UK centred further south with milder Atlantic air coming over the top of it. It looked worse than the GFS op really

They did also show the ECM outlook, with cold easterly winds bringing in snow showers.

High uncertainty basically.

Just a thought they will be going off the 00z runs . GFS 00z had the high coming in from the west . The ECM 00z had easterly still same as tonight . 

There always work on the mornings runs data . 

Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Just now, ICE COLD said:

Just a thought they will be going off the 00z runs . GFS 00z had the high coming in from the west . The ECM 00z had easterly still same as tonight . 

 

The N24 forecast due up now will helpfully be using newer data .......

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Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

well firstly, as the op output has suddenly seen some big Atlantic riidging appear, the mid strat has responded almost in tandem. It should be the other way around ....it may well be but the timescales are very close considering the difference between 50 hpa and 500 hpa 

also note the lack of vortex over ne Canada. That’s a change and allows the greeny ridge to exist.  If the trop and mid /lower strat are as close as this then generally the trop output is fairly reliable.  The changes seen today probably reflects the downwelling imprinting from strat to trop .... shame we don’t have the eps strat data to see how that compares .....

Is this why we are seeing the Stella charts from the ECM ? It’s picked up the signal ?

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Just a thought they will be going off the 00z runs . GFS 00z had the high coming in from the west . The ECM 00z had easterly still same as tonight . 

 

That would make sense, as the American model output they showed had high pressure centred too far south to bring in an easterly and instead had milder Atlantic air coming round the top of it, into the UK. Whereas the 12z GFS has a weak easterly  flow, thanks to the high being slightly further north.

On that basis, maybe a swing towards the easterly (ECM) solution since that video was put together. That would certainly be closer to what the seasonal models have been predicting.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
33 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

Here’s your day 9 50hpa to compare with yesterday’s day 10 you posted 

A4C82AD3-353E-4113-85FC-DDAD04D90F10.thumb.jpeg.97210bd0bca0a59858625f7705640a7b.jpeg

Hehe - so even better then  

EDIT - like that view too - better than the Berlin format I think. I wish I could remember the exact shape of the Beast downwell from Feb - from memory the initial trough wasn't so deep and we had a handy shard drive east to west from the Siberian side bringing the tropospheric pattern with it. This time we wont have that immediate easterly feed - but slower build leading to longevity. And the 850s I posted earlier across Europe and Scandy are fantastic...….

Edited by Catacol
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

That would make sense, as the American model output they showed had high pressure centred too far south to bring in an easterly and instead had milder Atlantic air coming round the top of it, into the UK. Whereas the 12z GFS has a weak easterly  flow, thanks to the high being slightly further north.

On that basis, maybe a swing towards the easterly (ECM) solution since that video was put together.

Yep you got it the gfs has started  to come round as the days gone on

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

That would make sense, as the American model output they showed had high pressure centred too far south to bring in an easterly and instead had milder Atlantic air coming round the top of it, into the UK. Whereas the 12z GFS has a weak easterly  flow, thanks to the high being slightly further north.

On that basis, maybe a swing towards the easterly (ECM) solution since that video was put together. That would certainly be closer to what the seasonal models have been predicting.

Looked to me like the para 12z run that d bett was showing just then 

with the eps sitting somewhere in between the two op solutions end next week, I guess the no preferred outcome isn’t a shock 

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Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
Just now, chionomaniac said:

The ECM has better strat resolution so will pick up on this sooner. I would expect to see some great blocking charts on the GFS too from now onwards.....

Thanks for the reply 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

At least I can retire in the almost certain knowledge that, tomorrow morning, all thing will be pointing SNOW...?:unsure2:

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The N24 forecast due up now will helpfully be using newer data .......

just confused me even more so it did..

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

At least I can retire in the almost certain knowledge that, tomorrow morning, all thing will be pointing SNOW...?

How long have you been doing this Ed???

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

The ECM has better strat resolution so will pick up on this sooner. I would expect to see some great blocking charts on the GFS too from now onwards.....

Good luck with that C!!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

Wondering if the 18z may move even more to ecm? Would be good to see, oh and now we are starting to see some snaw chances where is mr snaw himself? He’s disappeared. Maybe he’s getting his sledge ready 

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