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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening! A Quick check list for the upcoming weather...

1...Cold incoming ??     Yes!

2.... How much snow in my backyard.?.......Not Sure.!

3.....How cold will it get?   Not sure!

4.....How long will the cold last?   .......Not sure!

5......Ecm or Gfs right with detail?   ......No.!

6.......Enjoy the Rollercoster.......!

ANYWEATHER.png

ANYWEATHERX.png

Sums up the situation nicely.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

A look at the mean heights day 16 ....geps, gefs, eps

8C946586-9047-4B58-8838-E47E07C5B73D.thumb.jpeg.361aeb3a01804021cd5eb950b5bbdd4d.jpeg  C0111AF4-69CE-4F56-9D8C-4A2E5096981F.thumb.jpeg.b9a92281a2944a7ac72c6d90a01b0e35.jpeg  CDA9A14C-4A5A-43E7-9A79-51A4DCDDC553.thumb.jpeg.7053b400a0046976f5e43a97354ddff1.jpeg

 

should keep the interest going ......

incidentally @catcol, you may need to revisit your strat charts in the morning .....they will be rather different than they have been - both ec runs consistent today ........

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
2 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Colder uppers further west on ICON 18z vs 12z with precipitation in the same place

image.png

image.png

Better then nothing I suppose might make a bit of difference for some lucky people ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Just a quick post about the 12z swingometers from me.

Not really helpful TBH, the runs are generally col for the 25th but they are sluggish to bring in some decent blocking as per the ECM, many of the runs are better at the end of January though.

image.thumb.png.f54c0b717f2ba49913c7e13c0b9dd4e1.png

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
29 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

Finally a snow depth chart thats not had Scotland chopped off of it. thank you.

But a chart that gives Barcelona more snow than London... funny old game...

Finally time to get excited about model output after pulling teeth since Dec 1st.

This is OK, bit wobbly but OK. Wobbly as in the spread could just hang onto the wrong side of snow conducive but, again, OK.

graphe_ens3 (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
31 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Very snowy for our Irish friends!

Yes fingers crossed I wonder what the pub run will show. Looking forward to the next few days of model watching hopefully everyone gets to see some white stuff. 

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30 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Very snowy for our Irish friends!

Very , from Dublin myself hoping for some white bliss . We wore so lucky with lasts beast at we wore in the right direction for the Irish Sea to produce streamers. Quality stuff, keep up the great work

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

 

should keep the interest going ......

incidentally @catcol, you may need to revisit your strat charts in the morning .....they will be rather different than they have been - both ec runs consistent today ........

Is that a positive or negative.......

this is hardly the time for cryptic messages.

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

incidentally @catcol, you may need to revisit your strat charts in the morning .....they will be rather different than they have been - both ec runs consistent today ........

That's intriguing......what's the trend today? I envy you lucky early data-birds....

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Just tearing through the ECM ensembles, some VERY snowy looking runs again, though probably an increase of the runs that give little when compared to the 12z/00z previous runs. Many widespread 4-6 inches on there between the 21st-25th Jan and thus a very snowy set overall, with surprisingly good agreement on timings of the LP dropping southwards.

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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

That's intriguing......what's the trend today? I envy you lucky early data-birds....

CB0B7ECB-7632-4B0B-8F09-F9B0AF073E1A.thumb.gif.e0e437215779498b897d1de7c24e10b7.gif

Yesterdays data already has shown the ability for high pressure to oscillate between Scandinavia and Greenland regions. I’m intrigued.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Is that a positive or negative.......

this is hardly the time for cryptic messages.

I`m taking that as a positive Karlos, only due to musings on the other side of the pond where they are expecting the effects of the SSW to open the doors on their doorstep.

EDIT: What I mean by that is that if the effects are starting to happen there then they must be starting here as presumed.

Edited by Stuie W
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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

Here’s your day 9 50hpa to compare with yesterday’s day 10 you posted 

A4C82AD3-353E-4113-85FC-DDAD04D90F10.thumb.jpeg.97210bd0bca0a59858625f7705640a7b.jpeg

Could you explain the implications?

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

Here’s your day 9 50hpa to compare with yesterday’s day 10 you posted 

A4C82AD3-353E-4113-85FC-DDAD04D90F10.thumb.jpeg.97210bd0bca0a59858625f7705640a7b.jpeg

Blue, if i am looking at that chart correctly.. that is amazing heights/blocking over the pole

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

BBC 10 day video showed both the ECM and GFS output for next week and said there is currently no favoured evolution.

Well, let`s be honest, we would take both.

Edit: a blend that is.

gfsnh-0-186.png

ECH1-192.png

Edited by Stuie W
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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

And 30hpa .... gfs op latest runs have also shifted this way though the ridge placement bit further east than ec

EDD40A2D-936D-4D2C-8EB1-E1CE72BE6DC8.thumb.jpeg.4bd14803fce2ee04a0f35833b6c3cded.jpeg

could you explain what this means for us?? thanks.

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