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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The cold end to ECM is just beyond the spread on tonight's ens mean peaks around -7

london_ecmsd850.thumb.png.7f538714aa881fcf0f82b2b7b38f92b8.png

Can never find that chart on TWO could you post the link,please,getting towards the minus 20 hpa now lol,their were some frigid ensemble runs yesterday evening.

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

tempresult_mtp6.gif

 

CFS 7-1-19, wasn't that bad it seems to me

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Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Frosty Mornings
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Its perfection in terms off north sea temps/tight reflective isobars ..

And upper/lower sync-..

@convective lake like effect.

Absolutely PRIMMED-if the ecm..ooz/12z are on or near the dollar..

There should maybe-be a contingency plan..flagged for be-known areas..

Thats no- ramp-nor hype..that actual...based on the given!!!

Expecting a similar outcome ?

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Just now, Sparky68 said:

Expecting a similar outcome ?

Me ???? 

Yes!!!

 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
12 minutes ago, knocker said:

The 5-10 EPS mean anomaly reflects the det run and then a backtracking of the amplification

5-10.thumb.png.8e0037c998c70d2645a3402f16cde2db.png8-13.thumb.png.eef2c530dffed7dee26673b97686b290.png

All round decent..

Although the form of BACKTRAKING AMP..

Will do wonders for some...and indeed not others!!.

All a tad speculative @this point.

But the overall shouts are of exception!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
10 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Its perfection in terms off north sea temps/tight reflective isobars ..

And upper/lower sync-..

@convective lake like effect.

Absolutely PRIMMED-if the ecm..ooz/12z are on or near the dollar..

There should maybe-be a contingency plan..flagged for be-known areas..

Thats no- ramp-nor hype..that actual...based on the given!!!

The colder the models the more sense your posts make,tight

only joking love your posts  mate

inject a sense of, its only weather when things look bad.

long may they continue 

 

 

Edited by snowbob
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Not a bad mean chart for D8

image.thumb.png.7cf3840778900009550e4d407e03bd86.png

The amount of energy in the northern arm of the jet has been steadily reduced. Only a dramatic & unlikely, reversal of that trend would break the build of upper heights behind the surge of energy south next week.

Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
10 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Its perfection in terms off north sea temps/tight reflective isobars ..

And upper/lower sync-..

@convective lake like effect.

Absolutely PRIMMED-if the ecm..ooz/12z are on or near the dollar..

There should maybe-be a contingency plan..flagged for be-known areas..

Thats no- ramp-nor hype..thats actual...based on the given!!!

That is a ramp!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
37 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Moving on to the ECM ensemble mean, does it follow the op - it did spectacularly yesterday afternoon, looking very good at just T168:

image.thumb.jpg.84193faa999921c74b86adc1061af630.jpg

BOOM!

What I really like about the ECM mean, is the absolute teasing suggestion of cross polar heights taking hold. It's tangible.

 

Need to keep the general pattern for a few more days yet before you can start telling people about this. The general consensus beginning to forge in the various NWP is most encouraging. But keep your powder dry, we've been here before. T-96 is the cut off point for confidence to peak!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

I assume that the mean ridge is suppressed se on the mean compared to the op because plenty of eps members have a more positively tilted system off the esb day 7 which then evolves in a closer fashion to the gfs (though a little more traction with the upper ridge). The negatively tilted trough brings WAA to blow up the ridge and then undercuts it. Hopefully the ec op has this one correct as it’s the fastest route to wintry nirvana 

the trend in fi eps is to re amplify the mid Atlantic ridge as per the 00z suite and previous guidance 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
22 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Can never find that chart on TWO could you post the link,please,getting towards the minus 20 hpa now lol,their were some frigid ensemble runs yesterday evening.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfens.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=london

1 minute ago, Raythan said:

Always intrigued why you post ensembles 250 miles away from you , here’s ones a little nearer 

 

ED573DB1-3DF4-4B4B-9CC2-2DDD020C1059.jpeg

Just habbit London was the only one available when TWO 1st brought it out and that's the one I have bookmarked

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Posted
  • Location: Nutts Corner
  • Location: Nutts Corner

GFS gives a 48hr period from Tuesday with snow chances right across the country, still a possibility and if it deliveries it may receive more credit than it’s been given lately

1112D1AA-28E7-460C-A4C0-5C9FC4163095.png

81C04090-AA3E-496C-8B3F-22B41B043566.png

28815E42-A58C-4E08-A533-73A56CD44FED.png

1388BB29-79B7-4C89-8319-57631712A7D9.png

A2E454E5-81DF-4AB7-B61C-3CD1B48F920F.png

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
4 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

GFS gives a 48hr period from Tuesday with snow chances right across the country, still a possibility and if it deliveries it may receive more credit than it’s been given lately

1112D1AA-28E7-460C-A4C0-5C9FC4163095.png

81C04090-AA3E-496C-8B3F-22B41B043566.png

28815E42-A58C-4E08-A533-73A56CD44FED.png

1388BB29-79B7-4C89-8319-57631712A7D9.png

A2E454E5-81DF-4AB7-B61C-3CD1B48F920F.png

So does the ECM.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019011512_180_1642_215.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

Interesting slight change on the ensemble NAEFS 12z

linkup of heights at 300h naefsnh-0-0-300.thumb.png.be630460d4ecf9ad71c24c1bf58e9154.png then at the end of the run still has above average heights signal over Greenland but with a signal for the NW > SE angled lows (sliders)  naefsnh-0-0-384.thumb.png.6c19ab7b8d72d491e4798536bd392873.png I still believe that any one of these will have the potential to be big snow makers with the correct depth and amount of colder air in the mix , watch this space.

ensembles GEM 12z

gens-1-1-216.thumb.png.2faf41aac7382b896cb377ad4ea6c9c2.pnggens-1-1-228.thumb.png.940e02e58105ee9aa98c8d88f660aabe.pnggens-1-1-300.thumb.png.42fbbd663ec59e9d42464be66cfa9210.pnggens-2-1-204.thumb.png.4db5746b8a30ec9edabbb3bdd6d39b67.pnggensnh-3-1-384.thumb.png.6f24106f0aefebd1be3290a5a887340f.pnggens-4-1-348.thumb.png.d027ce83b7578f3b30080776d8a9f575.png      

gens-11-1-240.thumb.png.63321c574fc5b329c019adfd56731d30.pnggens-11-1-288.thumb.png.875af4d454ea88141ee0d4be43433172.pnggensnh-12-1-372.thumb.png.2944cecfe5074e8c782bbfd84a6561c9.pnggensnh-20-1-228.thumb.png.ffbf334bbd8dd4230ca0ebf7d7c6791d.pnggensnh-20-1-384.thumb.png.fa53bca7dafba829d2af90d4dfcba378.png    

ensembles FNMOC/NOGAPS 12z

gens-9-1-252.thumb.png.6b2fc0b62051555c5564bd785c7d20e8.pnggens-11-1-384.thumb.png.a6f1facf4dd485c303ea7360a991f9bd.pnggens-14-1-216.thumb.png.30ffef4d56604bd1c58341b82091aaad.pnggens-14-1-384.thumb.png.9e1350b43e4c7a5b1b1ec0d068850db5.pnggens-15-1-252.thumb.png.c0dd887932f0a20ebf771c6f93e8c655.pnggens-4-3-360.thumb.png.b1b9a881585d309ae6de4f5bb528fccc.png       

gens-5-3-324.thumb.png.573c321d4b1544e79b85e677da6630e4.pnggens-8-3-324.thumb.png.214dde8085f04347396d7886c96565b0.pnggens-9-3-192.thumb.png.689fe1a856d8f1541352876e1c18410b.pnggens-11-3-372.thumb.png.e9b6058b4616f41de1ab702dba5b41a7.pnggens-13-3-312.thumb.png.bf54ca662d75a4c1716f7794cc68ab3b.pnggens-14-3-192.thumb.png.a9188c0ab63f43eb15878ca832537d02.pnggens-14-3-384.thumb.png.8132de8efb97c66c12372f0210bbb6c7.pnggens-18-3-348.thumb.png.879591ff72ed20e627177e44dac5f450.png       

 

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
2 minutes ago, booferking said:

So does the ECM.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019011512_180_1642_215.png

Finally a snow depth chart thats not had Scotland chopped off of it. thank you.

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Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Frosty Mornings
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Very snowy for our Irish friends!

I saw a chart showing as much as 60cm a few days ago but, cant find it.

Maybe i imagined it!

Edited by Sparky68
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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
28 minutes ago, Raythan said:

Always intrigued why you post ensembles 250 miles away from you , here’s ones a little nearer 

 

ED573DB1-3DF4-4B4B-9CC2-2DDD020C1059.jpeg

London is always a good benchmark.

ANYWEATHER.png

ANYWEATHERX.png

Edited by mulzy
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening! A Quick check list for the upcoming weather...

1...Cold incoming ??     Yes!

2.... How much snow in my backyard.?.......Not Sure.!

3.....How cold will it get?   Not sure!

4.....How long will the cold last?   .......Not sure!

5......Ecm or Gfs right with detail?   ......No.!

6.......Enjoy the Rollercoster.......!

ANYWEATHER.png

ANYWEATHERX.png

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