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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
10 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

Friday

ECM also going for significant accumulations 

 

1545035150_ecmsnow.thumb.png.ec4fcc037ab60d616b2a5bce25777bb0.png

Local forecast says not. It normally plays catch up though but to me says Friday still isn't set in stone. Fax has everything further south.

 

met office local forecast.jpg

20190114.2250.PPVM89.png

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Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Frosty Mornings
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Are you talking about the slider or the Easterly?

The Easterly

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Sparky68 said:

The Easterly

It isn't quite as good as the March one, but you won't need quite as good uppers so who knows, i doubt it would be as good as either of the March ones for the North as the 500mb heights are a bit high, but further South it might still be very good.

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Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL

I think the high would continue poleward though fairly quickly, bringing the North into It. 

Edited by BlackburnChris
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It isn't quite as good as the March one, but you won't need quite as good uppers so who knows, i doubt it would be as good as either of the March ones for the North as the 500mb heights are a bit high, but further South it might still be very good.

Late Jan is a pretty good time to be getting a decent easterly..

There is an upper cold pool on EC with low thicknesses, that added to north sea is a recipe for snow storms..

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
6 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

ECH1-192-1.thumb.gif.9dda63553f92efd36c4dce3935676ce0.gif

tenor-1.thumb.gif.0e15b562cdc0bde49ff49b77de963f80.gif

Yeah, that's quite actual explaninig of the current situation, watching from Germany....

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Unfortunately I can't wait for the ECM ensembles tonight, am running late for a game of darts up the pub because of this evenings weather porn charts so I'm off. After all this time of watching and waiting with all the excellent input that we have on here, and in spite of the building blocks all being there, its still a bit of a shock to see such fantastic charts turn up, and very much in the mid term as opposed to the far reaches of FI.

Remember ECM is best in the T144-T192 period, and what it shows looks very plausible and is backed up by other models. I promise I wont mention a word of this up the pub though, but I might drop a few big hints.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Moving on to the ECM ensemble mean, does it follow the op - it did spectacularly yesterday afternoon, looking very good at just T168:

image.thumb.jpg.84193faa999921c74b86adc1061af630.jpg

BOOM!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Late Jan is a pretty good time to be getting a decent easterly..

There is an upper cold pool on EC with low thicknesses, that added to north sea is a recipe for snow storms..

It is good i admit, but we are right on the border - the Northern limit of any dumpings, see how the deep blues don't last as long on the 500mb chart, but its good for January, because for a long time, i cant think of many Easterlies in January, its been such an Easterly free month for a long time now.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Just now, Mike Poole said:

Moving on to the ECM ensemble mean, does it follow the op - it did spectacularly yesterday afternoon, looking very good at just T168:

image.thumb.jpg.84193faa999921c74b86adc1061af630.jpg

BOOM!

That i'll do me not much going further out. May actually see a winter snow flake then.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Top/support 4 2nites ec-op..

 

EDH1-168.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
14 minutes ago, The PIT said:

 Local forecast says not. It normally plays catch up though but to me says Friday still isn't set in stone. Fax has everything further south.

 

met office local forecast.jpg

20190114.2250.PPVM89.png

The chart I posted is accumulations on Saturday, ECM goes for a different track with the low pivoting as reflected in the Meto 5 day.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

...would think/suggest this evening gfs 18z suite sobers up...

And starts-further movement in line

EDM1-240.gif

EEM1-240.gif

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Frosty Mornings
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It isn't quite as good as the March one, but you won't need quite as good uppers so who knows, i doubt it would be as good as either of the March ones for the North as the 500mb heights are a bit high, but further South it might still be very good.

Thanks for taking the time to explain, appreciated.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
8 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

The chart I posted is accumulations on Saturday, ECM goes for a different track with the low pivoting as reflected in the Meto 5 day.

Latest fax for friday doesnt push the front east nut but more north with the low pressure!!gota keep an eye on it as there could be a bit more interest to it than forecast!!

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Im not complaining...

graphe_ens3 (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The cold end to ECM is just beyond the spread on tonight's ens mean peaks around -7

london_ecmsd850.thumb.png.7f538714aa881fcf0f82b2b7b38f92b8.png

Miniscule..

And the fall in likely....as again we continue gain!!!

Edit..

I think we know where-we are headed here. (Overall)

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
12 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

The chart I posted is accumulations on Saturday, ECM goes for a different track with the low pivoting as reflected in the Meto 5 day.

Well the date was chopped off so how would I know. Anyways Saturday for us only has light snow for an hour then dry so despite being up to date from the met it does indicate a level of uncertainty.

The Beeb has several hours of sleet instead.

Just need to find another forecast that has sunshine then we have a full house. I guess the details will firm up by Thursday.

Edited by The PIT
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Not sure. The one in March remember had significantly more solar strength, and reducing the snow depth potential. Plus, the sea wasn’t as warm, which put a hinder on the snow machine effect. Despite lower uppers. Conversion rates over the sea relatively speaking would give similar results if the ECM was to come off. 

That is the Stella run that we’ve been long awaiting this winter.

Dont forget we had inland convection, you might do alright from this one, all acedemic anyway as even if the Easterly verifies, there is no way the 500 - 850 profile or surface pressure will be exactly the same at 200 hours anyway, if anything we should be willing the amplification into Greenland at the same time to gain an even higher lattitude, that will help pull in cold uppers for longer.

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