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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
2 minutes ago, James Gold said:

A Bromleyite myself, do you see Thames Streamers setting up in that scenario, or something else giving us lots of snow?

Yes We could see quite a bit of snow showers off the North Sea and more  organized snow pushing up from the south .

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
1 hour ago, snowray said:

Lovely chart at T192, no mild easterly, heavy snow showers moving in from the North Sea.

Big big upgrade this and getting close to the reliable now.:oldgrin:

ECE1-192.png

ECE0-192-1.png

Yes and with all the talk about snow on  Northern hills. This type of set up would favour The NE/E and SE/S as well as most central regions pretty confident The cold zonality talk will be banished and replaced by a bitter Easterly by months end should the ECM continue to and other models start showing charts as good as these

Edited by Kentspur
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

What I'm expecting, re EC Op pattern into FI, is a more toned down, modest version of events.

I have memories (vague memories admittedly) of the EC model often "bigging up" potential wintery nirvana charts in FI, especially when it's a relatively new route to cold it's projecting, and when it enters a reliable timeframe (ie T144 - T168), the model tends to relax the pattern somewhat into something a little less dramatic.

I think it's on the right road however, perhaps possibly a little quick with developments, hence the good looking FI charts.

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
10 minutes ago, That ECM said:

For the newbies, easterlies have gone wrong with all 3 models and met on board however on here coldies like looking a great charts nearly as much as seeing them verify and this is a great chart.

3D9D58DE-5A0C-4AB1-8BC1-410462BA07E3.png

This is sooooooo true!!! A cold chart is the MOD thread elixir. The peak of the rollercoaster, whether it verifies is of little concern when gauging the mood of the thread. 

But it’s all good fun  

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

If this chart came off I wonder if that warm sector would get mixed out.

 

ECM0-240.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Exciting weather!
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
5 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Yes and with all the talk about snow on  Northern hills. This type of set up would favour The NE/E and SE/S as well as most central regions pretty confident The cold zonality talk will be banished and replaced by a bitter Easterly by months end should the ECM and other models start showing charts as good as these

Take it with a pinch of salt or grit, but you get the idea ;) (from near the end of the ECM run 12z)

image.thumb.png.8689efabd08a77e99d45062aa1dcc56c.png

 

Edited by stratty
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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
29 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

mary mother of JESUS!!!

TXT BOOK !!!!!

ECM1-192 (1).gif

THAT'S winter for MiD-EU, far best chart this winter so far...

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM snow depth....

75EE3B09-B548-45E5-96E3-C872FD5E12C5.jpeg

I can't imagine that would be anywhere close to what a good easterly can bring.  Take the PPN charts (especially at this range) with a large bucket of salt. Still good to see the signals there for something notable mind!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
20 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Southern Britain buried in snow or am I getting a head of myself.

If they were to verify, yes abbie, Midlands south should do best in this set up but obviously anywhere in the east of the country all the way down from Scotland would be good for snow showers and longer spells of snow too.:oldgrin:

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
1 minute ago, AWD said:

What I'm expecting, re EC Op pattern into FI, is a more toned down, modest version of events.

I have memories (vague memories admittedly) of the EC model often "bigging up" potential wintery nirvana charts in FI, especially when it's a relatively new route to cold it's projecting, and when it enters a reliable timeframe (ie T144 - T168), the model tends to relax the pattern somewhat into something a little less dramatic.

I think it's on the right road however, perhaps possibly a little quick with developments, hence the good looking FI charts.

Agreed. Something between the ECM and GFS seems likely...hopefully (and I expect) more like ECM though 

E5AED230-1204-499B-BC13-B9B8EE236A6C.png

BC22160C-A97D-4D9B-ACCD-7EE8E408D8AB.gif

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM snow depth....

75EE3B09-B548-45E5-96E3-C872FD5E12C5.jpeg

That would be from the 144 weather front ,not to mention lake effect that would follow on from 240ECM.

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Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
2 minutes ago, The PIT said:

If this chart came off I wonder if that warm sector would get mixed out.

 

ECM0-240.GIF

Yeah the people of the Shetland isles will not be happy 

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent EC for southern Britain(esp the SE)- i would imagine there will be sheer joy as curtains are opened to a winter wonderland @192

image.thumb.png.933d7e291262a4e4fd0a142ecc04aa68.png

one for the shovel..

216

image.thumb.png.4d1be7b27dd88ed78ad2d4ba9a50aebb.png

One for the snow plough..

Is it likely to verify? 

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
2 hours ago, Cheese Rice said:

Potentially quite a significant snow event over Yorkshire if the GFS is to believed with the front stalling, snow more likely to high ground 

When?! You haven't stated a timescale or posted a chart :)

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Just now, snowfish1 said:

Is it likely to verify? 

100% as with all fi charts, seriously I’d say the trend is right but you can’t say for sure, that many easterlys have gone wrong right down to the wire but there’s a good chance of some form of easterly I’d say but it’s still like a week away

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

When?! You haven't stated a timescale or posted a chart

Friday

ECM also going for significant accumulations 

 

1545035150_ecmsnow.thumb.png.ec4fcc037ab60d616b2a5bce25777bb0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

Roll on 4 days, and if seems that we are seeing just this. I think that we have seen that the ECM has the tendency in the past to overplay amplification and blocking scenarios........but, and a big but, when we have downwelling strat events the ECM picks these up a little better because of the better strat resolution. Now we may not see a classic evolution as seen in this latest run, but my feelings are that we will see a block to our north somewhere in a similar position. No need to comment on every run, but imo we see the trend increasing as expected, and I suspect that most of us will witness a significant snow event before the end of winter and most likely before the end of the month. And with a locked in omega type block, that snow isn’t going to disappear quickly......

Do I take it then this 'slider' show will be via the back door?

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Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Frosty Mornings
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL

 

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Working... 

Nice ECM

Let's hope UKMO improves in the morning at day 6.

For a noob , being as this seems so favourable for a cold snap/snow event, is there anything in recent years that had similar charts and led to a good outcome for cold lovers?

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
2 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

 

For a noob , being as this seems so favourable for a cold snap/snow event, is there anything in recent years that had similar charts and led to a good outcome for cold lovers?

Last March

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

 

For a noob , being as this seems so favourable for a cold snap/snow event, is there anything in recent years that had similar charts and led to a good outcome for cold lovers?

Are you talking about the slider or the Easterly?

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