Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Man With Beard]

It's another beautiful ECM tonight, and good consistency with the morning's run. A little disappointing (if you like snow) not to have more cold in situ at T168 as the diving low is a fantastic snow opportunity, but the low itself is the trigger for a better easterly immediately after. 

[bluearmy]

Just now, southbank said:

The ecm op is following what the EC 46 dayer being alluding too, but having been badly bitten a few years back and ECM weakness by amplifying too much until we see cross model agreement specially the beast killer METO it’s just nice FI candy

which ec46 ??  this ec run is for w/c 21st jan …….

btw, i agree re the amplification off the esb …….. need to see ukmo at least in agreement on the 00z run

[Mike Poole]

ECM T 240, really starting to lock the cold in now, this run is an absolute belter!

[Met4Cast]

Wonder where Crewe has gone.. ECM is as good as it gets! 

[Pembroke Dangler]

Just now, tight isobar said:

Could be retrogression to Greenland here allowing cold reinforcement from the north east then we are locked in for cold for a while.

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Als a cut off Greenland High at 216-

Rare as hen Twins with teeth !

 

very rare on this run  - its Iceland!

[Purga]

Nice upper trough over the south = SNOW

Edited January 15, 2019 by Purga

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

That is an immaculate conception!

talk about consistency! I was not expecting this at all must admit

Praying at the garden of GEFSemane that that comes off!  

[Winter Hill]

6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The GFS lovers were waiting to pounce if the ECM went balls up , but it’s holding strong it’s a stonker . 

ECM day 9 - amazing

-11 uppers into mr Murr neck of the woods will have Him  yelling Boom

Edited January 15, 2019 by Winter Hill

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The GFS lovers were waiting to pounce if the ECM went balls up , but it’s holding strong it’s a stonker . 

ECM day 9 - amazing

That weather would do me fine, IC - but who are these 'GFS lovers' to whom you so fondly refer? Those who don't accept 'the GFS is always crap' to be the Word of God?

Get a grip, peeps, not all of us prefer 'outwitting' computer models to the real weather?

[chris55]

Ignoring the mild 850s pilling in from the Atlantic.....the overall synoptic pattern is mint and should allow for continued cold air to eventually make it back into the mix.

[KTtom]

I was thinking how nice it would be to wake up tomorrow at six to find the overnight runs had actually upgraded for once this winter!...unfortunately, I think the bar has been set a little high this evening,. Be nice to go to work in a good mood for a change!

 

[Mair Snaw]

As is the tradition on this forum when a cold spell is incoming Those uppers look a bit marginal. we could do with it being a few degrees colder or it might rain.. on a serious note if these charts get into the t72 range this place will be in melt down. wouldnt it be nice to just sit back and watch it tick down without any wobbles? could it? will it? i hope it does. but remember the rules DO NOT TELL ANYBODY ABOUT THIS!

[That ECM]

For the newbies, easterlies have gone wrong with all 3 models and met on board however on here coldies like looking a great charts nearly as much as seeing them verify and this is a great chart.

Edited January 15, 2019 by That ECM

[The PIT]

You got to laugh. ECM at T240 looks like GFS at T384. I guess that's a case of a slow catch up eh? Both lala land. Anyway we still waiting for what is going to happen on Friday.

Edited January 15, 2019 by The PIT

[northwestsnow]

Excellent EC for southern Britain(esp the SE)- i would imagine there will be sheer joy as curtains are opened to a winter wonderland @192

one for the shovel..

216

One for the snow plough..

[The Eagle]

 

Tasty evolution on tonight's JMA 

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That weather would do me fine, IC - but who are these 'GFS lovers' to whom you so fondly refer? Those who don't accept 'the GFS is always crap' to be the Word of God?

Get a grip, peeps, not all of us prefer 'outwitting' computer models to the real weather?

I think that was more aimed at those who claim the GFS can’t possibly be wrong and are keen to right off the entire winter based on its output.

This ECM run shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. It matches well the seasonal and 46 day models. Although I think this run develops things more quickly, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the pattern evolved more slowly in reality and we have to put up with more nonsense doom and gloom comments on here just because we’re not all going to be buried in no time. 

[Norrance]

No more will it snow in Kent type posts please. Use the Regional threads for these questions or they will disappear.

[Mucka]

JMA not quite on par with ECM but somewhat supportive

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Now I was sceptical about ECM on 00z....I am NOT about 12z

 

BFTP

[Penicuikblizzard]

5 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Would Kent do alright out of that 

A bit premature to be talking snow depths, let’s get the cold in first!

it could still change as it’s over a week away, feet on the ground people

[Met4Cast]

People really shouldn’t be worrying whether the 240hr ECM chart shows snow for their specific location given we still don’t know where/if snow will fall this coming weekend..

[snowray]

15 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

is that the mild easterly folk were moaning about earlier?

Well its a big relief bg, I was getting a little edgy earlier on, big surprise this sort of upgrade to turn up so early in the run, I mean this starts off at D7, brilliant.

[Penicuikblizzard]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

JMA not quite on par with ECM but somewhat supportive

Jma better aligned for most of the east coast ️