Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, The PIT said:

ECM falls in line with the GFS in bringing a shallow low south eastward into the UK so it could one nil for the GFS here. UKMO fax sends the same low much further south so it only really troubles the south west of the uK. A so slight possible snow event maybe on after all. Question what happens next?

Interesting an early forecast I watched on the beeb made no mention of Friday which says uncertainty all around.

It was the GFS that was blowing up that low while the ECM had it sliding. Not the other way round.

[snowfish1]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Boom shake the room

Steve what chart is this from. Please 

 

[The PIT]

T168 GFS and ECM not much different although ecm being more aggressive in sliding the low south eastward.

[Methuselah]

So far, a winter of countless 'BOOM' charts and zero 'BOOM' weather...?

[bluearmy]

maybe not as negatively tilted off the esb ….. the next frame dictates the atlantic ridge shape days 9/10 

EDIT: looks fine

Edited January 15, 2019 by bluearmy

[Spah1]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Boom shake the room

What do you make of the uppers? 

Looks a colder chart than -3 / -4

Edited January 15, 2019 by Spah1

[That ECM]

Just now, snowfish1 said:

Steve what chart is this from. Please 

 

T168 ecm 12z

[WalsallWeather123]

Synoptics look great. But only -3/-4 uppers. Will that give snow to low levels?

[markw2680]

 

anyway moving on I really like the look of this....

Edited January 15, 2019 by Mapantz
Yes, moving along..

[Pembroke Dangler]

Snow moving from west to east on that front nothing marginal here -4 -5 uppers drawing a continental feed ahead of the front very nice indeed

Edited January 15, 2019 by Pembroke Dangler

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Spah1 said:

What do you make of the uppers? 

Looks a colder chart than -2 /-3. 

Thats enough for snow - look at the tilt on the trough.

[SLEETY]

gfs been terrible,it had us in a zonal north westerly last few days  which was looking good for the ski industry after the weekend,now  it’s looking like we are going to get an easterly if ecm is correct,so it’s miles out.

Edited January 15, 2019 by SLEETY

[Weathizard]

Well this will shut a few up

[Chertseystreamer79]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Boom shake the room

Would this get snow south Steve? Everything (including meto) seems always a bit marginal? Sorry...bit of anoptimistic question at best!

[chris55]

Oh er missus!! 

EC 168 should raise some eyebrows :0

[Ali1977]

Awesome 

[SMU]

Just now, Chertseystreamer79 said:

Would this get snow south Steve? Everything (including meto) seems always a bit marginal? Sorry...bit of anoptimistic question at best!

Marginal but yes supportive

[snowice]

Ecm 192 here comes the Easterly! 

[tight isobar]

Well an truly in the love zone..

Even our trough has been on the little blue pills...if you get my gist!!!!!

[KTtom]

It's gone silly at 192!chart of the winter so far 

Edited January 15, 2019 by KTtom

[Mike Poole]

T192 bringing in Easterly

Edit, adding T850s, going cold...

Edited January 15, 2019 by Mike Poole

[karlos1983]

25% confidence could be raised 

Fantastic stuff

[Leo97t]

Beautiful from the ECM. And this time the uppers of -10 are near. remarkable consistency between the 0z and 12z

[snowray]

Lovely chart at T192, no mild easterly, heavy snow showers moving in from the North Sea.

Big big upgrade this and getting close to the reliable now.

[kold weather]

A really clean evolution from the 12z ECM this evening, near perfect.

GFS very much trending the same way though is alot more delayed and subdued due to a far more relisiant PV over the Arctic.