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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
13 minutes ago, jayb1989 said:

You have to admire the consistency of the GFS, sticking to it’s guns again. Looking favourable now that high pressure will be closer to us than the ECM has been showing. 

I notice Matt Hugo has recently said on twitter he is now favouring the GFS output for early next week as well. 

Hard not to feel a bit disaapointed.

Not sure why you would be disappointed when we are talking about stuff for next week. It’s wednesday for crying out loud, next week is fi and will chop and change as we all know

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
8 minutes ago, snowray said:

Looks like ECM is now blowing up Fridays low.:olddoh:

ECM1-72.gif

No it’s not

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It can be as woeful as it likes globally but all that matters is what we experience here in UK. The average Joe doesn't give a hoot over nwp stats, just whether it's a. Cold and b. Snowy... A misplaced slider may not mean much to global verification stats but it means everything to weather on the ground for our patch. 

Yer that’s very true but I think the gfs has move towards the ecm solution through today . 75/25 blend in favour of ecm

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
7 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Not sure why you would be disappointed when we are talking about stuff for next week. It’s wednesday for crying out loud, next week is fi and will chop and change as we all know

Yes things have gone wrong in the past at T72, let alone T120.

Looking ok now, big relief, similar to UKMO.

ECE1-120.png

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

ECM day 6 looks good to me! (Need to click image!!!!!)

ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

Edited by mulzy
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Supprised to see the snow depth forecast from the Euro4 for Thursday afternoon! Surely this is overdone ?

54A2CA59-C848-47F9-A205-0C3DA062C4A1.jpeg

Bournemouth area looks accurate

Yes those charts do tend to over do the totals.

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

D9C942D3-698C-43B1-B0E8-1EAD0241FDF8.thumb.png.c2ed95ffb9fa0d433dac262fafc0ef61.png

Looks good to me. 

Sharper trough. 

Good wedge of heights to disrupt the trough. 

Azores High not as flat as UKMO

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

ECM falls in line with the GFS in bringing a shallow low south eastward into the UK so it could one nil for the GFS here. UKMO fax sends the same low much further south so it only really troubles the south west of the uK. A so slight possible snow event maybe on after all. Question what happens next?

Interesting an early forecast I watched on the beeb made no mention of Friday which says uncertainty all around.

Edited by The PIT
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

OK, let's stop with the one liners and the nonsense posts, please?

If you're having a moan, go and do it in the appropriate thread, as it'll swiftly go missing in here.

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

From reading the comments on here, things are apparently looking less wintry and it looks like high pressure will be centred closer to us that had been thought....

.....based off the op run of a soon to be discontinued model with lower verification stats than that of the other main models, and against its own ensembles.

So much utter rubbish gets posted in this place. 

Not that I believe GFS is right but the old (soon to be discontinued) GFS was great for cold and snow this evening, it is the new GFSp that shows boring high pressure for 10 days. The fact it’s consistent with its earlier run is what’s concerning me and makes me think it can’t be dismissed. Imo the route to cold is clear but widespread disruptive snow isn’t 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

NE US pain is our gain  

90DF8BF7-F166-438E-9D2D-25E2CFF92D0A.thumb.png.1ec221da390c26126996786f241da3a5.png

Yep..that monster seaboard trough..screams shoot me up scottie...via atlantic waa..

@point base greenland!!

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Looks like the door south of Greenland has been slammed firmly shut, nice angle of the low north east USA....should be good from here on in .

ECMOPEU12_168_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

ECM consistent so far

image.thumb.png.8b799a7964d8c0a0ddc86e5c36f38383.pngimage.thumb.png.3004e9f7014a7b86608aa13d359bff06.pngimage.thumb.png.0d6ca12d5d49561e13e12a2618a44d39.png

Edited by Purga
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