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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
39 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Pretty good.

Though I think just looking for an Easterly could be slightly misleading to any chances of earlier cold prospects.

The main thing is that all the models are seeing trough disruption between days 5 and 8, the extent of that will dictate how strong any height rises (ridge) to our E is and where and how strong that ridge is relative to it being able to influence our weather on the ground.

It may be enough to just hold enough cold air in place without a distinctive E flow.

Bigger picture - it gives much better prospects for HLB in FI.

Getting interesting beyond the cool/cold zonal flow we have seen being modelled in previous days.

Yes agree. Plenty of N/NW shenanigans before that outcome

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

GFS control tries ever so hard to get the same happy ending as the Op.

3A5F738E-C3BA-4A34-9F73-20D82BE81889.thumb.png.7915ee89e9956bd7006b8e9e75dcfee8.png

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Vikos Seasoned

Vikos

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Posted

Thumps up for the Para tonight, would be freezy down here with some psbl. very cold nights when we have snow cover and good radiation by night

gfsnh-0-240.png?12gfseu-9-252.png?12

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snowice Seasoned

snowice

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GFSp Is worryingly similar to this 06z run if you compare these two frames 

9AA84CFB-D31B-44B2-BAD0-AD1901CA57E6.png

EB3C93B2-B780-48C3-B38F-F5A6FA548EFA.png

I wouldn't worry past 144 never mind 288.Fi

Edited by snowice
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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
2 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Thumps up for the Para tonight, would be freezy down here with some psbl. very cold nights when we have snow cover and good radiation by night

gfsnh-0-240.png?12gfseu-9-252.png?12

Not much snow though away from Scottish mountains ? 

A226B3A0-33F9-4E63-B5CE-4A3FABB72E76.png

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Vikos Seasoned

Vikos

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Posted

The snow cover chart is relativly worthless to me... also there will be a strong floor current (right expression?) from the east....

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, Vikos said:

The snow cover chart is relativly worthless to me... also there will be a strong floor current (right expression?) from the east....

That’s a new one on me ?‍♂️ do you mean surface wind? 

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jayb1989 Contributor

jayb1989

Posted
Posted

You have to admire the consistency of the GFS, sticking to it’s guns again. Looking favourable now that high pressure will be closer to us than the ECM has been showing. 

I notice Matt Hugo has recently said on twitter he is now favouring the GFS output for early next week as well. 

Hard not to feel a bit disaapointed.

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted
36 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Lady that is today's not 144z!! 

Fax charts only go out as far as T120, anyway todays chart won't be out until later tonight, usually after 10.30pm.

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Leo97t Aficionado

Leo97t

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, jayb1989 said:

You have to admire the consistency of the GFS, sticking to it’s guns again. Looking favourable now that high pressure will be closer to us than the ECM has been showing. 

I notice Matt Hugo has recently said on twitter he is now favouring the GFS output for early next week as well. 

Hard not to feel a bit disaapointed.

lol i agree that i think the gfs solution is more likely than the ECM. But seriously the gfs consistent? Must be a troll post...

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Lloyds32 Contributor

Lloyds32

Posted
Posted (edited)

Nice to see something in the far reaches of the GFS that resembles what the anomaly charts have shown.

The pressure pushing into Greeland/Iceland region and away from the Azores certainly looks refreshing.

Also, even if FI, it shows a proper winter pattern, and what UK really needs to get a good cold spell.......forget the Atlantic slider games.

Edited by Lloyds32
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
Just now, Leo97t said:

lol i agree that i think the gfs solution is more likely than the ECM. But seriously the gfs consistent? Must be a troll post...

It's been consistent in showing the least wintry mid term output... 

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, jayb1989 said:

You have to admire the consistency of the GFS, sticking to it’s guns again. Looking favourable now that high pressure will be closer to us than the ECM has been showing. 

I notice Matt Hugo has recently said on twitter he is now favouring the GFS output for early next week as well. 

Hard not to feel a bit disaapointed.

Incorrect!

he is favouring the pressure rise over the weekend as per GEFS ensembles... that’s completely different to saying the gfs is right...

Edited by karlos1983
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snowfish1 Aficionado

snowfish1

Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
Posted
6 minutes ago, jayb1989 said:

You have to admire the consistency of the GFS, sticking to it’s guns again. Looking favourable now that high pressure will be closer to us than the ECM has been showing. 

I notice Matt Hugo has recently said on twitter he is now favouring the GFS output for early next week as well. 

Hard not to feel a bit disaapointed.

Underststment if gfs wins out. As someone else pointed out if there's a lesser more boring  Pattern shown in the minority sods law is it will manifest over any more interesting forecasts 

 

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

Looks like ECM is now blowing up Fridays low.:olddoh:

ECM1-72.gif

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's been consistent in showing the least wintry mid term output... 

Crewe it’s been woeful the last few days . Even the stats that someone posted earlier, it was close to navgem

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, bluearmy said:

cant you lot at at least wait twenty minutes to see what ec op does with the weekend ??

Im actually more bothered about the ECM eps mean than the op at this stage.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Just looked at the GEFS 12z mean and to me it indicates predominantly cool / cold zonality with occasional milder interludes but more emphasis on colder towards the end.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Crewe it’s been woeful the last few days . Even the stats that someone posted earlier, it was close to navgem

It can be as woeful as it likes globally but all that matters is what we experience here in UK. The average Joe doesn't give a hoot over nwp stats, just whether it's a. Cold and b. Snowy... A misplaced slider may not mean much to global verification stats but it means everything to weather on the ground for our patch. 

Edited by CreweCold
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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

looks similar to yesterdays 12z op and the icon, ukmo ……….

Bang in line with yesterday’s 12z run 

00574A37-CE15-4F4D-913A-4B01767343DA.png

6ACAD834-4069-43DD-9F59-9DB3A2467B23.png

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