Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[we1330]

Just now, Snipper said:

How many times have major events almost come out of nowhere?  That has been my experience. 

On the flip side - how many times have almost - certain to happen major events vanished without trace?

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, Snipper said:

How many times have major events almost come out of nowhere?  That has been my experience. 

How many times have "major events" (yet to happen but modelled) have disappeared though when the actual time comes?

I can think of a few.

[Skyraker]

Ladies.... UKMO FAX +144 12z

*edit* sorry posted +24 by mistake, here's the +120, cant find the 144 for some reason.

 

Edited January 15, 2019 by Skyraker
I'm a bellend

[bluearmy]

Just now, Bristle boy said:

How many times have "major events" (yet to happen but modelled) have disappeared though when the actual time comes?

I can think of a few.

More!

you’re becoming as pessimistic as Fred was last week BB ....  cheer up ... you could be in the battle zone over the next few weeks !!

[bluearmy]

Just now, Skyraker said:

Ladies.... UKMO FAX +144 12z

Very confused 

there isn’t a day 6 fax issued

this is today isn’t it ??

 

[jason75]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Very confused 

there isn’t a day 6 fax issued

this is today isn’t it ??

 

thats todays yes

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Very confused 

there isn’t a day 6 fax issued

this is today isn’t it ??

 

Don't like the look of it whatever it is..

[Chesil View]

Well if the ECM can keep some consistency with its 00z run later on then it will have been a good day's model watching. From a cold an snow point of view.

[Chesil View]

Well if the ECM can keep some consistency with its 00z run later on then it will have been a good day's model watching. From a cold an snow point of view.

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

More!

you’re becoming as pessimistic as Fred was last week BB ....  cheer up ... you could be in the battle zone over the next few weeks !!

Doubt it BA....unless there's a coup d'etat in Mexico. In Riviera Maya from Feb 1st for 11 days.

[Mucka]

GFSp a little disappointing in terms of trough disruption out to the midterm compared to previous run and ECM.

Will ECM stick to its guns given the UKMO output?

Although I don't think UKMO is such a bad run even though it doesn't show good disruption like ECM since it may well have disruption next frame (168) and height rises to our E/NE

[Easton Luna Boys]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

So, we've gone from yesterday's laughable ECM sinking superstorm to today's GFS's FI phantom northerly, just like it's shown a dozen times since November...

Why waste time analysing and re-analysing Day 10+ charts, that'll never come off, anyway?

 

Funny that, someone said something similar on the other side, using the analogy of waiting for blood test results to come back that you know have been spoilt/tampered with. Day 10, it's been day 10 since the end of November!

I'm not championing any model's cause that far out - including the picked on kid in the playground that is the GFS!

So we are not really any the wiser, apart from it looking to become colder, with the possibility of some wet snow over higher ground especially in the north. Stick to the <5 day fax charts for now, as still far too much inconsistency further up the track.

Still can't see that train...

[mulzy]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Don't like the look of it whatever it is..

It's the analysis chart for mid-day today!

Edited January 15, 2019 by mulzy

[Froze were the Days]

5 minutes ago, Skyraker said:

Ladies.... UKMO FAX +144 12z

Lady that is today's not 144z!! 

[Mucka]

GFS ensembles such a mixed bag by day 10 they may as well be random charts.

[Methuselah]

I thought that the 06Z GEFS ensemble might raise peeps' spirits...But, alas, it appears that Sydney might be the sole beneficiary.

 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Doubt it BA....unless there's a coup d'etat in Mexico. In Riviera Maya from Feb 1st for 11 days.

It’s a banker for Bristol then!

gfsp positively tilted off the esb at day 6/7 so the trough is further east than ecm as it drops in

need to see ukmo in the morning for guidance if the ncep/ec stand off on that continues past the 12z output 

[Skyraker]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Very confused 

there isn’t a day 6 fax issued

this is today isn’t it ??

 

Sorry blue I ballsed it up, it's correct now.. well 120.

Edited January 15, 2019 by Skyraker

[bluearmy]

Just now, Mucka said:

GFS ensembles such a mixed bag by day 10 they may as well be random charts.

That’s been the issue with gefs for quite a while

and judging by the surfeit of eps clusters, the eps aren’t much different ! 

[weirpig]

NavGem got this

[I remember Atlantic 252]

FAX for Friday, decent, not like GFS which gives me a wet day, way too progressive, this looks mostly dry away from far SW

[Skullzrulerz]

19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

More!

you’re becoming as pessimistic as Fred was last week BB ....  cheer up ... you could be in the battle zone over the next few weeks !!

To be fair he does have a point there has been a few times this winter with some events (northerly's) that have been downgraded to deletion 

[Norrance]

Some recent posts are more appropriate to the model banter or Winter threads. Keep to the models please.I

Edited January 15, 2019 by Norrance

[James Gold]

Any news on the 6 week ECM? I’ve probably missed stuff but was it updated last night? And do we know what it looks like?

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, James Gold said:

Any news on the 6 week ECM? I’ve probably missed stuff but was it updated last night? And do we know what it looks like?

Last night!

What they look like? Second part you your name

Edited January 15, 2019 by karlos1983