Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[ICE COLD]

In la la land the GFS goes for it . 

[Banbury]

GFS 12Z evolves nicely id say , its followed ECM through the day 

[Mucka]

I'm really not seeing what others are seeing with the GFS/ECM match up other than int he general terms GFS finally splits energy at around 168 and is more amplified upstream.

I expect the GFSp and this evenings ECM to look quite different by day 7 but we will see - at least there is some deep FI eye candy I guess

Edited January 15, 2019 by Mucka

[swfc]

24 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS has trended towards the ECM and developed a more amplified US storm.

The UKMO looks all wrong over the USA at day 5 and 6 , this effects how east the pattern is over the UK.

The storm on it weakens rapidly and turns into a shallow wave . Completely against what’s expected . I really think it’s lost the plot upstream .

A very unlikely solution which will hopefully meet the shredder by tomorrow .

I'd agree.im not seeing anything positive about the ukmo today tbh!!!

[SMU]

11 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Are you talking about the split energy at 168 Steve or upstream in FI?

It seems quite different both earlier and later which forces the pattern much further SE

Just the overall evolution in terms of working 'towards' a long term better match to the ECM- IE diving trough way out west

although not enough disruption yet...

[frosty ground]

GFS shows most of England and Scotland north of Peaks struggling to get much above freezing from Thursday until day 10 away from windward coasts.

[mb018538]

Parts of the states could see record breaking cold coming up. 850s below -35....insane! 

[kumquat]

Oh, go on then

[frosty ground]

[knocker]

Now that's the way to serious cold and I suspect where people should be looking with the ens and anomalies. That's if it's going to happen of course

[Leo97t]

Just to illustrate how hard it is to get an ice day in london, even at 384 on the 12z with uppers of -12, the max is still at 1C in central london

[Cheese Rice]

Potentially quite a significant snow event over Yorkshire if the GFS is to believed with the front stalling, snow more likely to high ground 

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just the overall evolution in terms of working 'towards' a long term better match to the ECM- IE diving trough way out west

although not enough disruption yet...

I guess I'm just not used to you being so generous to GFS output 

Yeah I can see it has moved somewhat toward ECM but a long way to go, even in hi res.

It would be ironic if the time I am really dismissive of GFS it turned out to be correct.

This evenings ECM is going to be well anticipated.

[karlos1983]

Oh my 

[winterof79]

23 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Are you talking about the split energy at 168 Steve or upstream in FI?

It seems quite different both earlier and later which forces the pattern much further SE

What's the betting that the METs 25% chance of an Easterly increases if ECM sticks to its guns as well as the GFS moving towards that.

[andymusic]

1 minute ago, Leo97t said:

Just to illustrate how hard it is to get an ice day in london, even at 384 on the 12z with uppers of -12, the max is still at 1C in central london

Too much hot air from the mps no doubt lol - gfsp has that slider sort of "stalling" over Wales on Friday - could give a few places a little snow - let's see how well it performs being the new kid on the block

[winterof79]

7 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Thats a v-large %adge..

In terms of that evo!!!

@easterly infer...

5 x the usual % for January

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Thats a v-large %adge..

In terms of that evo!!!

@easterly infer...

Worth noting the 25% was specifically about the single EC Det run, so 25% is actually rather high given that.

GFS finally FINALLY disrupting the low like the other models have been doing for days now and it's sharpened up on sinking the trough through the UK into Europe. You wouldn't believe this model was top 3 in the world given the last week of absolute shamble performances. 

Outer reaches of GFS 12z similar to this mornings extended EPS mean which is interesting, the Scandi height bit in-between that though is a strange evolution.

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Oh my 

Im not going to bore any1 on former posts..banging on about this exaction..via height injection...as per both sectors!!..

@pac ridge @greeny push..

=massive block =split/partialy-or otherwise  vortex!

Not happened yet but im certain it will...

Edited January 15, 2019 by tight isobar

[Methuselah]

So, we've gone from yesterday's laughable ECM sinking superstorm to today's GFS's FI phantom northerly, just like it's shown a dozen times since November...

Why waste time analysing and re-analysing Day 10+ charts, that'll never come off, anyway?

I reckon Trump's ordered them to cut & paste!  

Edited January 15, 2019 by Ed Stone

[northwestsnow]

GEM joins the decent 12zs..

day 8/9

 

 

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

What's the betting that the METs 25% chance of an Easterly increases if ECM sticks to its guns as well as the GFS moving towards that.

Pretty good.

Though I think just looking for an Easterly could be slightly misleading to any chances of earlier cold prospects.

The main thing is that all the models are seeing trough disruption between days 5 and 8, the extent of that will dictate how strong any height rises (ridge) to our E is and where and how strong that ridge is relative to it being able to influence our weather on the ground.

It may be enough to just hold enough cold air in place without a distinctive E flow.

Bigger picture - it gives much better prospects for HLB in FI.

Getting interesting beyond the cool/cold zonal flow we have seen being modelled in previous days.

[WINTRY WALES]

13 minutes ago, Tristrame said:

It has the deputy chief of forecasting saying there's only a 25% chance the ECM is right

Didn’t say those words on that video?

[Snipper]

How many times have major events almost come out of nowhere?  That has been my experience. 

[ICE COLD]

13 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Oh my 

Yer lovely end to the gfs . Here’s the uppers to go with your chart