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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
2 hours ago, snowray said:

The cold NWly that was showing up yesterday would be preferable by far to a mild easterly, I hate them the most.:bad:

This happened twice in 2010. Frigid cold from the north or northeast then when the wind veered easterly the drip drip began.

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
12 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Some good advise there @karlos1983

Stay- now within the 96 hr scope-12z onwards..

The match/compare the formats...on large scale thereafter.= + that time.

edit...certainly via the raws.

Absolutely. Lots of interest in the near future yet to be resolved! 

Beyond that, background signals stay cold, albeit murky in terms of how it pans out as highlighted by @johnholmes. Also, as @Catacolsays, we can't completely rule out a possible storm if we do get a trough dropping sharply over us. NWP models are playing around with details, but a few have shown a strong storm next week. I know the probability of an incredibly intense system with central pressure approaching 950Mb is low, but we should still be looking out for what happens if/when that trough does dive down over/very close to the UK, albeit with a reduced intensity. 

The storm that eventually ended last year's first cold spell (@march 2ndish) was largely dismissed as an outlier from around a week out, so sometimes events we see as low probability do occur.

We'll have to watch and see if the plunging trough scenario is the one that finally brings the widespread wintry landscape that many on here are waiting for but, background signals remain good and eventually getting even better as the MJO signal moves towards phase 6 in the next 7-10 days or so...

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Just throwing it out there as something that may become a route forward in the fog of days 5/8

if the ridging is bigger than expected and throws a big enough wedge then the Canadian surge can come straight through nw/se into nw france rather than traversing the ridge and dropping in from the nnw 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Happy with the ICON up to 144

Little ridge into Scandi

image.thumb.png.31d049c2ad0f3f526e51af1fa891eeb3.png

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

NCEP still haven’t trended to either the ECM or GFS solution re the deep low tracking ne in the USA.

The differences though were discussed . The ECM develops a negative tilt trough , the GFS a positive one .

The GFS 06 hrs run did edge towards the more amplified solution and the latest ICON is also more amplified .

Also its deep low tip of Greenland is sharpening up at day 6.More energy se . 

PS we want the negative tilt trough .

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

I hope that everyone is sitting comfortably for this afternoons 12z runs, looking forward to some mega charts.

ICON 12z looking excellent, no mild easterly there hopefully if the Scandi high were to set up shop.

icon-0-168.png

icon-1-168.png

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Decent ICON, surely if it went to day 8/9 it would show a decent northerly there?

2DE9FF12-7FD1-497F-BE74-5AAADF34F9D8.png

Yes a Northerly could be on the cards from there, and lots of cold air to our north and east to latch onto.

iconeu-1-180.png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

V-decent icon..

We have exactions in an-around western scandi..with scope into the higher pole.

That aids the gain of atlantic waa via..sharpening the north west developng trough..

That further aiding a shot of more acceptable mid/and perhaps high latt blocking as we gain..

Great start

 

iconnh-0-168.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, snowray said:

Yes a Northerly could be on the cards from there, and lots of cold air to our north and east to latch onto.

iconeu-1-180.png

Now that’s the cold to the east we wanna see

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes ICON out the traps like Baleregan Bob-

Some decent consistency in there, with such a sheared low sliding south ~144 the plenty of snow opportunities

OMG you remember BB! You’ve given your age away Steve ! Yes ICON is great .

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Posted
  • Location: Gilfach, Bargoed, South East Wales Valleys, 190m Asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Ice, Frost, Thunderstorms, Gales
  • Location: Gilfach, Bargoed, South East Wales Valleys, 190m Asl
6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

OMG you remember BB! You’ve given your age away Steve ! Yes ICON is great .

Icon looks great. ( btw Steve it's Ballyregan!!)

JK

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Were deff-going ec 00z route here..

And gfs could possibly end up with a screaming scandi height notion..

Or back up @-around greenland..

 

gfsnh-0-84.png

Screenshot_2019-01-15-15-54-55.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Decent UKMO at 144, nice sharpening of the trough near Greenland, heights trying to build to the N or the UK.

image.thumb.png.0cbe0b850c2a8d3e5db84d58c9441cf1.png

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
4 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

The uppers are absolutely pathetic on the Gfs. Barely sub zero uppers off an easterly at first

Thats on current face values (subject to change)..

And the backing..and then forwarding of cold pooling..in direction at us..shouldnt be underestimate!!

gfsnh-1-114.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Decent UKMO at 144, nice sharpening of the trough near Greenland, heights trying to build to the N or the UK.

image.thumb.png.0cbe0b850c2a8d3e5db84d58c9441cf1.png

Yes given the rest of the output GFS already looks wrong at 120 with its lack of trough disruption and jet powering over the top.

gfsnh-0-120.png?12

If GFSp and ECM show continued trough disruption SE in the same time-frames I think it can be all but dismissed.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Decent UKMO at 144, nice sharpening of the trough near Greenland, heights trying to build to the N or the UK.

image.thumb.png.0cbe0b850c2a8d3e5db84d58c9441cf1.png

Not quite as sharp as the ECM 0z but an excellent effort, 8/10. 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

gfsnh-0-132.pngdaft daft daft..

Loses it again.

Just keeps compacting everything mid range...has no out for anything!!.

She'll throw up some cracking synops latter frames..its the nature of the demented beast atm!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Brief ridge before the PV segment moves down NW---SE.

Yes, looks like it has phased the 2 storms south of Greenland like the ECM. Next question is would it cleanly eject the segment and allow the ridge to build behind it at T168. But of course, we can't see that chart because of the Hamberder man.

GFS is a mess. (which is not to say it's wrong yet)

Edited by Yarmy
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