Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Catacol]

2 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

GFS 06z is not so much moving towards ecm it’s more to do with the 00z going well off kilter in comparison to say its own 12 run from yesterday and other modelling.   Re ECM the t144 to 168/192 doesn’t look right at all, it suddenly has an almost N/S vertical drop of the trough. It’s not to say that the end result isn’t where we head, just that I don’t trust the ‘stark’ plunge because I don’t think anyone could see that coming from the t144 snapshot

 

BFTP

...except that ENS data posted yesterday showed exactly this sharp drop. I was half way through a post yesterday that I chose not to put up - in case it was way off - suggesting that, if the temp gradient is correct, and we have a trend for modelling stronger ridges to both west and east, the trough could drop like a stone over the UK with not much time for ocean moderation of air and some pretty nasty wind speeds.

Every model's op run as of now has the trough dropping through the UK and into Europe on Tues/Weds. The upcoming pattern is looking more solid by the run to me...but the exact track of the centre of the low is going to be key when it comes. I think the MetO text language once again tells a story - covers every possible base. I'm not sure we will have certainty on the track and intensity of the trough until the 24/48 hour window given the range of options on the table.....from the slightly flabby trough of the GFS to the superstorm of JMA. Same direction - contrast in detail.

ECM is best of all. Still signs of that slider scenario followed by decent trough to the south without the ferocious gales.....

More happy model watching

 

[Skyraker]

UKMO +144 FAX - Radar time 

 

Look at that 528 DAM line, Dew points largely negative...

C'mon FROSTY, here boy!

Edited January 15, 2019 by Skyraker

[Snowman.]

The 6z increase in scatter is probably a good thing because the scatter has occurred in the -10 region which means that more members are bringing cold air to our shores, can't complain about that!

 

 

[Paul_1978]

Just been watching the Met Office live video. 

Regarding the ECM easterly in 8 days... currently assessed at around a 25% chance of happening, which is greater than normal for an easterly. 

It is one of the solutions, but not currently the most likely - they will assess the EC ensembles to determine the most likely solution and will be keeping an eye on it. 

Temps in Europe cold but not as cold as last year’s beast from the east. Nevertheless this scenario could still bring disruptive snow and significant windchill.

In a nutshell, more uncertainty than usual as regards next week, but ECM more likely  than the GFS. 

Fascinating model watching period coming up. 

Edit: ps no snow of note expected this week or at the weekend according to the video. 

Edited January 15, 2019 by Paul_1978
Added additional info.

[weirpig]

4 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Just been watching the Met Office live video. 

Regarding the ECM easterly in 8 days... currently assessed at around a 25% chance of happening, which is greater than normal for an easterly. 

It is one of the solutions, but not currently the most likely - they will assess the EC ensembles to determine the most likely solution and will be keeping an eye on it. 

Temps in Europe cold but not as cold as last year’s beast from the east. Nevertheless this scenario could still bring disruptive snow and significant windchill.

In a nutshell, more uncertainty than usual as regards next week, but ECM more likely  than the GFS. 

Fascinating model watching period coming up. 

Edit: ps no snow of note expected this week or at the weekend according to the video. 

Brilliant  Thank You.  seeing as we are earlier in the season  i guess the cold does not have to be as cold as last year   all looking good.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

GEFS 06z

     

        

      

 ensemble NAEFS 0z 300h   and by the end of the run  this model has been very consistent with its modelling of above average heights / blocking setting up exactly where we want it  

ensembles GEM 0z

    

ensembles FNMOC/NOGAPS 0z

    

      

still looking good and possibly some hints that we may be looking to the east if the slider lows position correctly to bring in the colder uppers from the E / NE

[winterof79]

2 hours ago, kold weather said:

GFS back to the setup we have seen for much of the last 3 weeks. It's probably not that unlikely IF the upper pattern over the Arctic do give us a +very AO. 

Upper ridging does try but vortex is far too strong on the 06z, so we end up back in an upper high again over our shores. Closer to the ECM but still far apart.

 

I would say unlikely according to MET updates where NO high pressure is mentioned.

It's all over the shop

 

[Vikos]

Iceland ENS looks a bit hmmm confused

 

[tight isobar]

Blocky blocky blocky..

 

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Iceland ENS looks a bit hmmm confused

 

Correct - I wish some people would realise the high variability in the current nwp and stop hanging on every frame 

the end destination is ‘Euro’ trough of some kind and ‘Atlantic’ ridge of some kind ...... let’s see how we arrive there ..... so much nonsense being posted on the met office threads and occasionally in here 

I thought this was an ‘old man’s game’ ........... 

[johnholmes]

Just a few lines trying to decipher what the upper air may be suggesting amidst all the 'chatter' from the synoptic models, GFS in particular.

Also to try (!) and get the idea of NOAA data perhaps being missing or at fault due to the Trump shut down. The only realistic comments I have been able to find seem pretty clear that, although not being paid, all human work continues as before and this includes tedning to any of the myriad of computers they use.

Anyw to meteorology.

The 500 mb anomaly charts are not that good for getting a handle on just what the upper air may be in the 6-15 day time scale. Changes in emphasis, even more basic now and then, and no total consistency between the 3 models I use do not give large confidence in what the upper air is going to look like as we move towards February.

First NOAA 6-10 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

There is no marked meridional pattern over the hemisphere. The value of the contour flow is reasonably low, around 546 DM just south of the UK as that contour dips into the European trough. This is something that all 3 models agree on. This does lead to feeling that the European trough is going to be there in 2 weeks, perhaps longer. This does not settle though how far east it may be in that period. The 8-14 is not dissimilar to the 6-10 suggesting there are unlikely to be any major changes in the overall upper air pattern in the next 2 weeks or so.

Turning to the ECMWF and GFS versions

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

They are and have been at some variance in the overall positions of both ridging/+ve heights/ and troughing. As you can see above this continues.

Summin g up what we seem to have is a suggestion of some kind of mid Atlantic ridging north at times, with the flow east of this running into a European trough, even perhaps a cut off as EC suggests. Personally I am not a fan of this cut off idea. It allows the development of surface features that, sooner or later, source their air from the Med. Not good if you are wanting snow not sleety rain. Most I know seem to favour a Scandinavian ridge, okay but its position is crucial if it too does not end up allowing the isobars to start to originate in the Med area. To me the current situation, IF it stays the same, that is air being sourced from a pretty cold region NW of the UK, even at times, direct from the Pole, is a better basis for building cold upper air and surface cold.

Just my pennyworth, feel free to knock holes in it.

[JeffC]

Just having a quick look in between flights.... If there's one thing that appears consistent is run to run inconsistency. 

So what do we conclude? 

Nothing is certain even at T+72 with the current set up. From what I can deduce it looks like being more seasonal that most of the winter so far, so let's all welcome that and hope for better output and outcome in reality. Almost nowcasting could become the flavour of the month. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

58 minutes ago, Catacol said:

...except that ENS data posted yesterday showed exactly this sharp drop. I was half way through a post yesterday that I chose not to put up - in case it was way off - suggesting that, if the temp gradient is correct, and we have a trend for modelling stronger ridges to both west and east, the trough could drop like a stone over the UK with not much time for ocean moderation of air and some pretty nasty wind speeds.

Every model's op run as of now has the trough dropping through the UK and into Europe on Tues/Weds. The upcoming pattern is looking more solid by the run to me...but the exact track of the centre of the low is going to be key when it comes. I think the MetO text language once again tells a story - covers every possible base. I'm not sure we will have certainty on the track and intensity of the trough until the 24/48 hour window given the range of options on the table.....from the slightly flabby trough of the GFS to the superstorm of JMA. Same direction - contrast in detail.

ECM is best of all. Still signs of that slider scenario followed by decent trough to the south without the ferocious gales.....

More happy model watching

 

Hi Cat

I believe too and have championed that there will be PV displacement from NW to SE bringing main trough to Europe, like I said the Ecm end may very be where we go ....just I didn’t see the way it got there as being quite right.  But thanks for your explanation.

 

BFTP

[karlos1983]

I'm very interested to see what the 12z bring. Will the GFS move further towards the ECMWF or vice versa. Can the ECMWF repeat or get somewhere close to its overnight run. 

My main concern is I'm not sure we will have any members left to view and dissect the 12z, as they appear to have thrown themselves off the MetO thread cliff! I strongly advise against heading to that thread anytime soon if you are of a nervous disposition! Wowzers

[Catacol]

43 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Just been watching the Met Office live video. 

Regarding the ECM easterly in 8 days... currently assessed at around a 25% chance of happening, which is greater than normal for an easterly. 

It is one of the solutions, but not currently the most likely - they will assess the EC ensembles to determine the most likely solution and will be keeping an eye on it. 

Temps in Europe cold but not as cold as last year’s beast from the east. Nevertheless this scenario could still bring disruptive snow and significant windchill.

In a nutshell, more uncertainty than usual as regards next week, but ECM more likely  than the GFS. 

Fascinating model watching period coming up. 

Edit: ps no snow of note expected this week or at the weekend according to the video. 

Paul - cant see that video on their site. Do you have a link?

 

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Paul - cant see that video on their site. Do you have a link?

 

 

[tight isobar]

17 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I'm very interested to see what the 12z bring. Will the GFS move further towards the ECMWF or vice versa. Can the ECMWF repeat or get somewhere close to its overnight run. 

My main concern is I'm not sure we will have any members left to view and dissect the 12z, as they appear to have thrown themselves off the MetO thread cliff! I strongly advise against heading to that thread anytime soon if you are of a nervous disposition! Wowzers

Some good advise there @karlos1983

Stay- now within the 96 hr scope-12z onwards..

Then match/compare the formats...on large scale thereafter.= + that time.

edit...certainly via the raws.

Edited January 15, 2019 by tight isobar

[SteveB]

15 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I'm very interested to see what the 12z bring. Will the GFS move further towards the ECMWF or vice versa. Can the ECMWF repeat or get somewhere close to its overnight run. 

My main concern is I'm not sure we will have any members left to view and dissect the 12z, as they appear to have thrown themselves off the MetO thread cliff! I strongly advise against heading to that thread anytime soon if you are of a nervous disposition! Wowzers

One thing you can absolutely guarantee is there will be no cross model agreement within the 96-120hr range, let alone 144+. GFS will come on board, ECM will jump etc etc etc....  

[bluearmy]

Note that Exeter use that fi ec op as a reasonable option for scenario B 

The gfs nnw vs the sunken trough 

looks like the nnw remains favoured for the time being but I suspect once they’ve checked out the clusters that may change 

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, SteveB said:

One thing you can absolutely guarantee is there will be no cross model agreement within the 96-120hr range, let alone 144+. GFS will come on board, ECM will jump etc etc etc....  

I'm just enjoying the output. It will be what it will be, but it's not often we see such differences at such short time frames in the nwp world, so it is fascinating to watch.

[Weathizard]

Realistic wish list for the 12z, GFS and more importantly the ensembles move towards the last couple of EPS, but more crucially I want to see the UKMO come on board and look something like the ECM at 144, the dream pairing would be nice to have in tandem.

Too much to ask? Probably.

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Note that Exeter use that fi ec op as a reasonable option for scenario B 

The gfs nnw vs the sunken trough 

looks like the nnw remains favoured for the time being but I suspect once they’ve checked out the clusters that may change 

Exactly..

I think its safe to assume..

There using stale/lagged data in that vid.

And we are likely 2 be (possibly) facing a different criteria...as early as today!!

Edited January 15, 2019 by tight isobar

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, SteveB said:

One thing you can absolutely guarantee is there will be no cross model agreement within the 96-120hr range, let alone 144+. GFS will come on board, ECM will jump etc etc etc....  

You know what will probably happen the GFS will climb aboard the wintry train and every will be buzzing . Then the ECM 12z will come out and jump fully of the train lol . Ups and downs or what . 

[Vikos]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I'm just enjoying the output. It will be what it will be, but it's not often we see such differences at such short time frames in the nwp world, so it is fascinating to watch.

Agree, synoptic analyses doesn't mean praying for surtain local outcomes, at least for me, but having a tender tention for the next run to see changes in the systems and their results...

regards

[tight isobar]

Anyway...get ready 4 the 12z ride!!!