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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
3 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Where can I find the para boys? Newbie here 

its on meteociel gfs. if you after venga boys im not sure!!!

Edited by swfc
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High pressure now flavoured for the UK by the GFS. This has always been my take on things, the firm favourite, could be a tough cell to budge once it establishes itself again.

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

Somewhere Northatlantic, shows the bunny hopping performance of GFS OP quite well

 

graphe_ens4.php?x=&y=&ext=1&run=0&lat=62graphe_ens4.php?x=&y=&ext=1&run=6&lat=62

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
5 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Synoptically great set. Uppers are rubbish though with most hovering at about - 4

I have to admit, the lack of proper cold even in January is a concern!

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

General take on things given the morning output.

Either we are going to see this signal dropped later on, or (and which i think could be more likely) that the trend to build heights to our north and north west will accelerate and we might start to be looking like having a blocked pattern set up from day 7 onwards, whether is cold or very cold depends on the intensity of cold that drops around any developing high and the track it takes. Easterlies will always be colder due to not having a large sea track and cold can remain in place or intensify at this time of year over the continent.

06z gfs and para are a step in the right direction.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The gfs reasonable consistent out  to T156 on the last two runs and at this time still an impressive amount of energy running up the eastern seaboard and across the tip of Greenland with an upper wind of 120kts at 500mb. Subsequently it again amplifies the subtropical high in mid Atlantic which is also in the same ball park , All apparently tied in with the north Canadian vortex and the movement of the cold American trough east

gfs_z500_vort_natl_27.thumb.png.c78465158157e25b51701bb047402915.pnggfs_uv250_natl_32.thumb.png.ce10c552f8eb5469b7b3d51d322ad104.pnggfs_t850a_natl_32.thumb.png.ef4aaf12636f30cbab488ab9f1e58f6a.png

gfs_z500a_nh_35.thumb.png.9776fa0a6c2062f85c192fe205a1da50.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
12 hours ago, Vikos said:

As long as we don't know if GFS is affected by the shutdown, we have to assume that it is, so not in its best conditions. That's why I won't use it too much for any stable forecasts atm

regards

Nobody has posted any evidence to confirm this though and it is exactly why I set up the swingometers so I can reference how accurate the GFS is when I have a good number of samples built up.

Anyhow the 06z swingometers see the first sign of movement towards a scenario on January 25th. More runs are now having an area of high pressure develop over the UK some of which are cold. P3 has to be my favourite from a coldie perspective. Still plenty of members with an active Atlantic though.

image.thumb.png.7d35c622d663fdff8eeafdf642230379.pngimage.thumb.png.4dbd1f618def3b696a4c7a67cf5de780.png 

Global temperature anomaly for T168 looks better with that warm air being pumped up between Newfoundland and Greenland. That is what we like to see. We also want the cold over the US to remain held back there and not to be released in the North Atlantic (otherwise expect to see rapid cyclogenisis.

image.thumb.png.4a8457574bb5d8b4225cb262087a0528.png

Swingometers for 31st of January will be tracked from tomorrow.

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3 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

General take on things given the morning output.

Either we are going to see this signal dropped later on, or (and which i think could be more likely) that the trend to build heights to our north and north west will accelerate and we might start to be looking like having a blocked pattern set up from day 7 onwards, whether is cold or very cold depends on the intensity of cold that drops around any developing high and the track it takes. Easterlies will always be colder due to not having a large sea track and cold can remain in place or intensify at this time of year over the continent.

06z gfs and para are a step in the right direction.

I actually think that due to the absolute of lack of any cold uppers to our east, that a northerly may actually be colder nationwide. 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
6 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Nobody has posted any evidence to confirm this though and it is exactly why I set up the swingometers so I can reference how accurate the GFS is when I have a good number of samples built up.

 

It’s ok QS - it sees the diving trough now so clearly someone nipped in and put 50 cents in the meter ......

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
20 minutes ago, swfc said:

its on meteociel gfs. if you after venga boys im not sure!!!

Ha ha dude!! Let's get us some snow. Lads 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
6 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

I actually think that due to the absolute of lack of any cold uppers to our east, that a northerly may actually be colder nationwide. 

Was thinking about this uppers issue earlier and I suspect that whilst initially there may be a lack of deep cold pool to draw on, if we do build heights to the nw, there would be a further cycle of amplification to draw in colder uppers to our east within three or four days 

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

FWIW, I hope the EC is on the money, and provides the wintry synoptics we crave for, but despite the GFS bashing that's been going on (which to a degree is merited in as much that its verification stats are not wonderful) I still remember 'That ECM'......when it's within T48 I'll believe it 100%, until such time, a watching brief is recommended 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Was thinking about this uppers issue earlier and I suspect that whilst initially there may be a lack of deep cold pool to draw on, if we do build heights to the nw, there would be a further cycle of amplification to draw in colder uppers to our east within three or four days 

I don't quite follow why you need particularly cold uppers to the east if you are advecting cold air from the north;  unless you are assuming a surface analysis that requires this

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Time to break out the high res models with the first flakes due in the nxt 48hrs. Thursday looks interesting for the East as this band slips south (Euro 4)

83D57326-2818-45E8-81C5-5C8EC622833D.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s ok QS - it sees the diving trough now so clearly someone nipped in and put 50 cents in the meter ......

Lol, looking back at yesterdays 12z ens and there was still plenty of runs which went with the diving trough idea, so it wasn't too bad. I think the GFS gets too much flak sometimes however I do agree that it does have a tendancy to develop dartboard lows. When I see those type of runs I know they are for the bin.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Well they are a lot better than the previous suits . What’s the bet when the gfs 12z op runs out later it jumps over to one of them more favourable ensembles and turns into a corker . ??

E04BEB3E-23E3-45E1-9A16-E32E5D9A0C44.png

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Well they are a lot better than the previous suits . What’s the bet when the gfs 12z op runs out later it jumps over to one of them more favourable ensembles and turns into a corker . ??

E04BEB3E-23E3-45E1-9A16-E32E5D9A0C44.png

And look at that bunch with 850s of -5 around the 19th!!shows that the slider could slide so much where it might not even reach the south of england and colder air could be further south!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
20 minutes ago, knocker said:

I don't quite follow why you need particularly cold uppers to the east if you are advecting cold air from the north;  unless you are assuming a surface analysis that requires this

If we are getting into a broad easterly flow then without frontal involvement (possible that the mean trough could end up too far south to introduce frontal interest here ), low enough uppers needed to kick off deep enough convection off the North Sea ... (as would be the interest for most on here )

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
47 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

I actually think that due to the absolute of lack of any cold uppers to our east, that a northerly may actually be colder nationwide. 

The cold NWly that was showing up yesterday would be preferable by far to a mild easterly, I hate them the most.:bad:

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

It's gone from 'smelling the coffee' to 'no-one else has a clue', in under twenty-four hours...Talk about 'fickle'!

Edited by Ed Stone
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