Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Man With Beard]

22 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

A huge array of solutions on the EC Clusters but they do show some support for blocking to the North or North-West of the UK. Certainly very little support for "mild" weather. Huge uncertainty, but most roads lead to cold.. though not "severe" cold just yet

Agree with this, except that I think some "severe cold" options are showing their heads on the ensembles - ice days are now within the 10% to 90% "spread" of options for London between 26th and 28th January, with outlier runs only giving maximums of minus 3C or minus 4C. Though of course the mean scenario is to keep temps just above freezing.

[frosty ground]

On it's own but has a look of last nights ECM about it

[swfc]

wow parra identical to 6zgfs???????

Edited January 15, 2019 by swfc

[Glacier Point]

GEFS undergoing major correction towards EPS in the day 8 / 9 range in the NE Atlantic, and that substantively opening the door for Greenland height rises days 12+

Edited January 15, 2019 by Glacier Point

[Nick F]

00z EPS T2m average for London keeping well under +5C, the deterministic close to the average, some tight clustering below the average and a wayward member or two going toward -10C temp one morning, NCEP GFS keeping on the milder periphery of the spread, outlier at times. Not a bad graph for the route ahead!

 

Edited January 15, 2019 by Nick F

[sunnijim]

37 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

Just as I said in an earlier post today, the default position of the GFS,blow up the Azores High.

It often plays this game in the summer and promises a heatwave of course.

Not sure I could stand a return as flagged here of a continuation of the weather dross of the last month!

Edited January 15, 2019 by sunnijim

[Met4Cast]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Agree with this, except that I think some "severe cold" options are showing their heads on the ensembles - ice days are now within the 10% to 90% "spread" of options for London between 26th and 28th January, with outlier runs only giving maximums of minus 3C or minus 4C. Though of course the mean scenario is to keep temps just above freezing.

Ah of course - By "severe cold" I was meaning BFTE type prolonged cold, the EPS certainly do have some deeper cold options within them though remain a lower probability, at least for now. Certainly improving.

GFS Para picking up on the sinking trough into Europe now, GFS still lagging behind..

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

GEFS undergoing major correction towards EPS in the day 8 / 9 range in the NE Atlantic, and that substantively opening the door for Greenland height rises days 12+

Again gfs suite has been dragging like mad..

But the corrections pulling tight..

[Paul_1978]

34 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

Seriously? It's 324 hours away - and with everything you have read about GFS, volatile output etc etc etc, is there a need to worry??

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, shaky said:

Jesus!!!!!guys take a look at the para at 180 hours!!!!massive upgrade and looks more like this mornings icon and better than ecm!!!wiked stuff!!

Why not post said chart, shaky?

[Met4Cast]

GEFS definitely a step towards the Euros on the 6z with blocking targeting Greenland

Now if we could see some consistency in the modelling for a couple of runs we might get a clearer picture..

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

Seriously? It's 324 hours away - and with everything you have read about GFS, volatile output etc etc etc, is there a need to worry??

I know that, just as all the other posters of FI charts know it?

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Why not post said chart, shaky?

I didn’t think it was that good when analysed closely - good that it dives the trough as opposed to recent runs but it separates the energy too quickly and build the ridge in at too low a latitude behind 

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

I didn’t think it was that good when analysed closely - good that it dives the trough as opposed to recent runs but it separates the energy too quickly and build the ridge in at too low a latitude behind 

Feels like the GFS solution is reasonable IF we do end up with the PV really not playing ball. It's more realistic than those dartboard lows GFS had been trying to throw at us and does have some mid Atlantic ridging even if it isn't as strong as we want.

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Why not post said chart, shaky?

True i should just get lazy taking a screen shot lol!!but its defo miles better!!

[bluearmy]

Seeing a potential route behind the dropping trough days 10/12 which others have also spotted whereby the ridge builds across but is then cut by a further Canadian vortex low heights splurge se into nw Europe 

the gefs06z mean anoms also showing this 

[shaky]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I didn’t think it was that good when analysed closely - good that it dives the trough as opposed to recent runs but it separates the energy too quickly and build the ridge in at too low a latitude behind 

Yeh after 180 hours the high just plonks it bum over us!!its a start blue!!more trough disruption to follow on 12zs!!also i think there might be more showers than expected wednesday to thursday so more areas might get a bit of a dusting of snow!!could be a few surprises!

[frosty ground]

Much more scatter in beyond the 23rd than there was from the 0z Run

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Feels like the GFS solution is reasonable IF we do end up with the PV really not playing ball. It's more realistic than those dartboard lows GFS had been trying to throw at us and does have some mid Atlantic ridging even if it isn't as strong as we want.

Not saying it’s unreasonable KW - within the envelope - just commenting that I didn’t see it as being wintry wonderful as was originally posted 

[Penicuikblizzard]

45 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

Same pattern as the whole winter so far, cold sinking south into mainland Europe plenty more snow for them 

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not saying it’s unreasonable KW - within the envelope - just commenting that I didn’t see it as being wintry wonderful as was originally posted

Oh I agree, the evolutions on the 06z ensembles are also synoptically good but many are rather lacking in deep cold due to the way the we evolve into the pattern.

Still much colder set of ensembles at the surface and shows the GFS suite really should have no faith put into it at the moment, regardless of mild or cold.

[Paul]

26 minutes ago, shaky said:

Jesus!!!!!guys take a look at the para at 180 hours!!!!massive upgrade and looks more like this mornings icon and better than ecm!!!wiked stuff!!

Why do you say it's such a major upgrade?

06z

00z

[Leo97t]

Synoptically great set. Uppers are rubbish though with most hovering at about - 4

[snowfish1]

27 minutes ago, swfc said:

wow parra identical to 6zgfs???????

Where can I find the para boys? Newbie here 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, snowfish1 said:

Where can I find the para boys? Newbie here 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204&runpara=1&carte=1