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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

The longwave features to watch for, to get the GFS in line with ECM is; at T168 the sharpening of the Atlantic Ridge and by T216 the Pacific Ridge moving into play:

ECM ECH1-192.thumb.gif.565600f2bce2d2bd8d7365a6bee0edcc.gifECH1-216.thumb.gif.3b4948e6395fbd3ee2a36048c82118ac.gif

If we can consolidate these developments then the mesoscale movements will resolve with time within that bigger picture.

Early doors for the GFS viz this pattern so if the 06z is not quite there in terms of cold and snow, that will not be an issue at this stage.

GFS gfsnh-0-198.thumb.png.f5dbb2bea7f1dcc9e202b1b67ff569b6.pnggfsnh-0-222.thumb.png.c5ec876eca9a57f0f00ac8f77a4e4d67.png

We can see that the GFS has taken a giant step in that NH profile, a work in progress, but maybe the flip has been switched to faster development of better forcing to the pattern loosening the NW to SE diving jet to a transitional phase rather than a driver?

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

Gfs loses the plot completely..

Imo its having major miss-dynamics..moreso with its thermal/nor-hem deciphers..

But takes a step forwards...nonetheless!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Popular Post
Posted

Clusters confirm at D10 that the euro trough is pretty solid, but various possibilities for ridging to the west/north

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019011500_240.

D12/D15 show a general trend to increase heights to the NW, whilst keeping a trough to the S or E

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019011500_288.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019011500_360.

It's all cold, just in different measures

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)

GFS 06z is not so much moving towards ecm it’s more to do with the 00z going well off kilter in comparison to say its own 12 run from yesterday and other modelling.   Re ECM the t144 to 168/192 doesn’t look right at all, it suddenly has an almost N/S vertical drop of the trough. It’s not to say that the end result isn’t where we head, just that I don’t trust the ‘stark’ plunge because I don’t think anyone could see that coming from the t144 snapshot

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Meanwhile as we decipher how much we are going to shiver...

Spare a thought 4 those down under..

@scorchio..50c...

gfs-ens_T2ma_aus_3 (1).png

gfs-ens_z500a_aus_3.png

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted
28 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Day 7 comparison 

33683FC6-5EFD-4B7E-A927-DE6557E28B85.png

660070E6-316D-40C1-8729-265B201527A6.png

The GFS is moving towards the ECMWF solution.

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

Expect GFS will continue moving towards the more amplified solution but ECM will back track a bit until they meet in the middle. Still great for cold and snow prospects 

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

These changes from GFS are comical in 6hrs we've gone from a hurricane style low over Iceland to relatively calm

gfs-0-234.thumb.png.18fe8b8dd2e3e77da25ef549cedcfe97.pnggfs-0-228.thumb.png.107e07bc57a309a427c45566d501ba98.png

Only further highlighting..its dire miss-modeling...as has been flagged !!!

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

No thank you, GFS! I've had enough anticyclonic crud for one year!

image.thumb.png.8fc6cb115036c87ed34b400b7947e896.png

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The GFS is moving towards the ECMWF solution.

Yep, it can be dressed up however you like, but the GFS is absolutely moving towards the ECM

image.thumb.png.0e1a134ebbf69f08abba2afde3828bae.pngimage.thumb.png.0e6e954f0f04ed082dacf1b68586809e.png

GFS, go to the Naughty corner... now !

image.thumb.png.007d551bddc278a31b9572e0654d317d.png

Edited by karlos1983
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karyo Maestro

karyo

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Posted
6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Meanwhile as we decipher how much we are going to shiver...

Spare a thought 4 those down under..

@scorchio..50c...

gfs-ens_T2ma_aus_3 (1).png

gfs-ens_z500a_aus_3.png

This is more than scorcio, it is deadly! The Australian climate is becoming more and more extreme!

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jonboy Seasoned

jonboy

Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
Posted
Just now, karyo said:

This is more than scorcio, it is deadly! The Australian climate is becoming more and more extreme!

Its always been extreme you just hear about it more today

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

A huge array of solutions on the EC Clusters but they do show some support for blocking to the North or North-West of the UK. Certainly very little support for "mild" weather. Huge uncertainty, but most roads lead to cold.. though not "severe" cold just yet

240.thumb.png.9b1fd4d70d2de42d4b49b447da2c8ff2.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019011500_324.thumb.png.4b6133b95d14e520e9f8e562dadaaa6e.png

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

GFS back to the setup we have seen for much of the last 3 weeks. It's probably not that unlikely IF the upper pattern over the Arctic do give us a +very AO. 

Upper ridging does try but vortex is far too strong on the 06z, so we end up back in an upper high again over our shores. Closer to the ECM but still far apart.

 

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snowy owl Community Regular

snowy owl

Posted
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm spring, hot summers - nae chance in Scottie though!
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, jonboy said:

Its always been extreme you just hear about it more today

It’s certainly much drier , the normal rains have not filtered inland so rain totals are about 10% in some parts ! I have no idea how many more years communities can rely upon bore water with so little rains . 

 

Im sure the cattle farmers are going to be hit big style ! 

CEA033A4-6BF1-46A1-9154-1DF02710F794.png

Edited by snowy owl
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

@Man With Beard days 5 thru 7.5 on the eps clusters cannot get the options to six or below ..... clearly there is much entropy as to how we arrrive at the euro trough ...

going to be a difficult few days given how high the potential rewards are for many on here ..... trend for higher heights to have a big say as we move beyond the sinking trough ..... could be v good but then could be a bit disappointing for a few aswell ......

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

Have a feeling the GEFS are gonna be a lot better after the 6z op run was an improvement . 

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Yarmy Maestro

Yarmy

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
Posted
23 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Expect GFS will continue moving towards the more amplified solution but ECM will back track a bit until they meet in the middle. Still great for cold and snow prospects 

Yeah, agree with this. The ridging at T168-T192 on the ECM just looks a bit too aggressive and sharp. Also seems a bit early in the context of the EC46 anomalies posted yesterday? 

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

I could only find one GEFS supporting the ECM T120 chart of sliding low #2:

ECM1-120.thumb.gif.35b452cbbeca557c0af4db16e8d2341c.gifgens-15-1-126.thumb.png.dc05ff0f5e1b8d41c35e098f95536d10.png

The rest doggedly keep to the op and mean take of a flatter phase rather than the NW to SE ECM take at that point.

But by T168 we can see the GEFS becoming more amplified and enabling the Euro trough to establish better than the 0z run. Again multiple routes to that pattern so the UK still in the dark as to cold/snow past D5!

gens_panel_jll8.png An example the Control at T192: gens-0-1-192.thumb.png.6d9258655d0feb3af28ec045ecebb483.png

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
2 minutes ago, IDO said:

I could only find one GEFS supporting the ECM T120 chart of sliding low #2:

ECM1-120.thumb.gif.35b452cbbeca557c0af4db16e8d2341c.gifgens-15-1-126.thumb.png.dc05ff0f5e1b8d41c35e098f95536d10.png

The rest doggedly keep to the op and mean take of a flatter phase rather than the NW to SE ECM take at that point.

But by T168 we can see the GEFS becoming more amplified and enabling the Euro trough to establish better than the 0z run. Again multiple routes to that pattern so the UK still in the dark as to cold/snow past D5!

gens_panel_jll8.png An example the Control at T192: gens-0-1-192.thumb.png.6d9258655d0feb3af28ec045ecebb483.png

Gfs para further west with slider and south!!!joining the euros!!think the shamefull climb down of the gfs will be complete by the end of tonight!!

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