Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Ali1977]

How likely is this, looks like there could be a decent dump in North England.

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

How likely is this, looks like there could be a decent dump in North England.

Not very likely because that’s a GFS chart lol . 

Edited January 15, 2019 by ICE COLD

[Methuselah]

One would have to favour the ECM solution over that from the GFS, for two reasons: firstly, the ECM is currently performing better; and secondly, it's the one that suggests the greater potential for snow...?

There is of course a third option: that none of the models has it right, that they are all having trouble modelling the downwelling...

Only time will tell...

[Man With Beard]

Individual ensembles have updated to 25th January on weather.us. By this time, the overwhelming majority of members source our weather from a northerly or easterly slant (didn't count but between 40 and 45 out of 51), so at total odds to the GEFS. 

The euro trough remains the strongest signal (as it has been for six days on the ECM ens now). A lot of the euro troughs have moved slightly east and lost a little intensity since yesterday's 00Z - better for cold, still good for snow but fewer "blizzard" members.

However, where heights build around this euro trough looks much more up in the air (!) that on the 12Z run. Some build heights west, some north-west, some north, some see heights slipping east quickly. We do not see many strong Greenland heights at this time. Also, a number of runs push another Atlantic low between heights to the west and north, probably headed for Europe once again (potential big snowmaker that one).

So, while D8-D10 looks very good for cold and probably snow, I couldn't call the following runs based on what we see at D10. Clusters will be interesting.

But a final point - we've seen quite a bit of movement on the past 3 ensembles at D9 onwards - probably worth taking any ensemble set beyond this time with a little pinch of salt until things settle down.

 

[ArHu3]

15 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The ecm has shown a different outcome at 216hrs for every run. A lot of them showing cold solutions but completely different routes in getting there. I don't see how that tells us to have complete confidence in it being right this morning. You would imagine at least one model would support it. Not saying it's wron just maybe caution is advised until models converge on the way forward 

 

Gem ensemble which supposedly is one of the better models for the Atlantic sector has a few similar solutions, eg control run

[Snowman.]

26 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The ecm has shown a different outcome at 216hrs for every run. A lot of them showing cold solutions but completely different routes in getting there. I don't see how that tells us to have complete confidence in it being right this morning. You would imagine at least one model would support it. Not saying it's wron just maybe caution is advised until models converge on the way forward 

It's just in that envelope right now, we're admist a pattern change and a big one at that so just about all options are on the table.

It's going to be a very interesting model period and I would say that no model currently knows what will happen at D10 so it's best to just observe and watch the ensembles as they probably hold the key however even they disagree entirely with each other so it doesn't help that much!

Edited January 15, 2019 by Snowman.

[Man With Beard]

ECM ensembles now updated to D13; at this time, 30 members clearly cold enough for snow for most, 11 clearly not cold enough, 10 borderline. Still heavily in the cold camp. (All in my opinion  )

[tight isobar]

Gfs slowly slowly...sniffing it out..

And lets remind ourselves...

Its supporting datas have been throwing out ec-like evos 4 some time now !!!

Edited January 15, 2019 by tight isobar

[Summer Sun]

GFS P doesn't have much in the way of deep cold air this morning

[georgiedre]

33 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

How likely is this, looks like there could be a decent dump in North England.

Probably better a few hundred miles SW

[Weathizard]

Looks like a slight move to a more ECM like solution to me? Still the profile to our north is very different though

[swfc]

Just now, Weathizard said:

Looks like a slight move to a more ECM like solution to me? Still the profile to our north is very different though

Indeed gfs sniffing the ecm solution,not sure if it will make it this run amplification wise

[Weathizard]

Day 7 comparison 

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Looks like a slight move to a more ECM like solution to me? Still the profile to our north is very different though

Yes certainly is..

It seems gfs will be dragged kicking and screaming...

An all 2 familiar story at times.

The atlantic sector starting to match now however!!!

Edit; big step in correct/direction...

Edited January 15, 2019 by tight isobar

[booferking]

Just now, Weathizard said:

Day 7 comparison 

Ever so slowly coming around i would say.

[shaky]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Yes certainly is..

It seems gfs will be dragged kicking and screaming...

An all 2 familiar story at times.

The atlantic sector starting to match now however!!!

Even that slider looks like its goin ever further west with time and less circular!!gfs is coming around slowly!!

[frosty ground]

GFS taking more of a south easterly track with the low on day 7

[swfc]

Hopefully the 6z gfs will ramp up the ridging on its big brother the parra shortly.Better start to the days outlook barring the ukmo.

[summer blizzard]

43 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

How likely is this, looks like there could be a decent dump in North England.

There's a reasonable chance of snow (though not especially heavy) despite the concern from many in this thread however the issue is the track which is still not decided. The fax charts for example don't really get anything north east of Birmingham. 

[Weathizard]

Certainly a change from its 0z, is that little system running over the top over the ridge going to flatten the pattern...

[Nick F]

06z GFS showing more amplification upstream over Atlantic early next week compared to 00z, this in turn forces a low to break southeast towards UK as per EC rather than passing east to the N.

00z for 18z Tues 22nd

06z for 18z Tues 22nd

Perhaps finally starting to fall in line with EC and EPS guidance in medium range from now on?

Edited January 15, 2019 by Nick F

[Weathizard]

Lol look at the difference in NH profiles, still it’s a much better run from the GFS regardless.

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Lol look at the difference in NH profiles, still it’s a much better run from the GFS regardless.

Lol..

Any1 whom was doubting AT- amping..and the mother canadian lobe..not getting syphoned-and drained..

Can i think now begin to see the notion...gaining rapidly...

That baby is getting large !!

Edited January 15, 2019 by tight isobar

[swfc]

Only down side  the moment imo is the 850s seem to be getting weaker and more lightweight atm.Granted they can soon drop but things are a lot less cold to the east

Edited January 15, 2019 by swfc

[Nick F]

Would ignore anything past day 7 from GFS, given its performance of late with chopping and changing, especially as it will try to flatten out the upper flow again over the Atlantic / N Europe. But the model is starting to perhaps pick up the correct amplification signal over Atlantic day 6 and subsequent.trough disruption across NW Europe, though it did have it yesterday I think on one or two runs and maybe the PARA before dropping it for a flatter pattern as we saw on both 00z op and para.