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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

I was actually exspecting worse . So are take that as a positive. 

A lot of the scatter is from quite fast moving lows bringing down brief NW airflows that don't really embed at all. A few colder runs but even they are pretty tame all things being said.

Compared to the ECM ensembles, they are truly dreadful, having looked through them all...only a few have anything remotely looking good in the long term.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Some scatter there.

image.thumb.png.8681e76f1bed8ff5ba1d8e9c8a76a7b9.png

Looks like good agreement there for the no slider with the 850 temps getting to zero now for us!!so maybe ecm and ukmo are too far west!!shame really!!on the 12z there were still quite a few members going for the slider and a bigger scatter but they all gone now mate!!

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

image.thumb.png.2e50d98e32e04bdf15b14dede11889e9.png

18z swingometer tones down the northern blocking and a lot of zonality in the ens members.

Will GFS end up with egg on its face or has it pulled off a major feat? We probably won't find out for a little while longer.

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

image.thumb.png.2e50d98e32e04bdf15b14dede11889e9.png

18z swingometer tones down the northern blocking and a lot of zonality in the ens members.

Will GFS end up with egg on its face or has it pulled off a major feat? We probably won't find out for a little while longer.

As long as we don't know if GFS is affected by the shutdown, we have to assume that it is, so not in its best conditions. That's why I won't use it too much for any stable forecasts atm

regards

Edited by Vikos
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
16 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

On this note, I wish you goodnight 

183297E9-EE1D-434D-BCF6-729D589F17F5.thumb.gif.73c310a1590b2e0c66c1c417e7899654.gif

STUNNING!

Close to -20c  

Bloomin heck Karlos, daytime max minus 8C, in the heat zone of London, that is day after tomorrow stuff as far as our little islands are concerned... I'll be trying to hunt this member down in the morning! 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Bloomin heck Karlos, daytime max minus 8C, in the heat zone of London, that is day after tomorrow stuff as far as our little islands are concerned... I'll be trying to hunt this member down in the morning! 

Haha I wish we could see the synoptic chart for that run, unbelieveable! I'll try and find it on the US weather website! 

Ah!... the furthest I can look at individual ensemble members is January 24th....

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Quite amazing to still see these marked differences within such a short timeframe .

Then later on the ECM and GFS are worlds apart with the PV. One side note just reading the MJO update the forecaster mentioned a disconnect between what the models are showing for most of the USA and what they’d expect given the forecast for the MJO in phases 4 to 7.

The MJO suggests warmer , the models suggest colder .

 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Quite amazing to still see these marked differences within such a short timeframe .

Then later on the ECM and GFS are worlds apart with the PV. One side note just reading the MJO update the forecaster mentioned a disconnect between what the models are showing for most of the USA and what they’d expect given the forecast for the MJO in phases 4 to 7.

The MJO suggests warmer , the models suggest colder .

 

Which one would we prefer for the states and which one would help us

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Bloomin heck Karlos, daytime max minus 8C, in the heat zone of London, that is day after tomorrow stuff as far as our little islands are concerned... I'll be trying to hunt this member down in the morning! 

If you find it please share ?

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Quite amazing to still see these marked differences within such a short timeframe .

Then later on the ECM and GFS are worlds apart with the PV. One side note just reading the MJO update the forecaster mentioned a disconnect between what the models are showing for most of the USA and what they’d expect given the forecast for the MJO in phases 4 to 7.

The MJO suggests warmer , the models suggest colder .

 

I suspect the shunt south of the lobes of  trop PV over N America and Europe by coupling with splitting troughs in the lower stratosphere negate the effects of the MJO imprint over coming days, SSW reversal dripping down perhaps overriding the MJO signal. The strat impacts fighting against the MJO imprint on the trop probably leading to some uncertain modelling for sure.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Which one would we prefer for the states and which one would help us

If the MJO isn’t impacting the USA as would be expected then it shouldn’t be effecting Europe either in the normal manner .

It’s currently weakening before re emerging in 3 or 4 depending on which model . 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

If you find it please share ?

You would need upper air temps of about minus 20 850hpa to see day time max of minus 8c in London I would imagine. Astonishing, but I think the first half  of Feb has the coldest ever lowest mean of  max temps at about minus 6.6 C, can't remember how far back that was  but it certainly possible to see extreme temps lol

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

You would need upper air temps of about minus 20 850hpa to see day time max of minus 8c in London I would imagine. Astonishing, but I think the first week of Feb has the coldest ever lowest mean week of about minus 6c, can't remember how far back that was  but it certainly possible to see extreme temps lol

There has been an operational ECM run with -20c uppers clipping SE -- it was around Jan 28th 2012 - i will see if i can dig it out tomorrow,

EDIT : it wan't quite -20 but cold still. bet there was some members that suite -20c

image.thumb.png.448d0191cf3be129c7212de9ad63806b.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There has been an operational ECM run with -20c uppers clipping SE -- it was around Jan 28th 2012 - i will see if i can dig it out tomorrow,

Wow like to see it. I meant first half of Feb averaged minus 6.6c,but which year lol

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Wow like to see it. I meant first half of Feb averaged minus 6.6c,but which year lol

1895?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

surprised nobody posted this JFF from 18z ensembles, never seen a chart like it.

 

gensnh-14-1-228.png

920mb low just N of Scotland 

gens-14-1-228.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Interesting ICON this morning.

It disrupts the first low as much as slides it and then has two follow up sliders that create a Scandi ridge and slack E flow.

iconnh-0-180.png?15-00

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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Interesting ICON this morning.

It disrupts the first low as much as slides it and then has two follow up sliders that create a Scandi ridge and slack E flow.

iconnh-0-180.png?15-00

That would be fun and snowy I guess.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
21 minutes ago, Mucka said:

surprised nobody posted this JFF from 18z ensembles, never seen a chart like it.

 

gensnh-14-1-228.png

920mb low just N of Scotland 

gens-14-1-228.png

Bring it on lol...would be some actual weather

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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )

The great thing about being on nights is you get disappointed by the 0z in real time.

 

Reverse psychology

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

UKMO 144 

image.thumb.png.1a39b25b8f5c60a1b608dffb8b3fe3ab.png

Certainly no support for ICON in that chart

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
8 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Certainly no support for ICON in that chart

Indeed, it's very GFS mid range. Support for a powerful, vortex fuelled LP spell around day 9 looks to be increasing...

Potential for some serious weather & some snow I'd have thought as the vortex crosses W-E

Let's remember, if it comes to pass, it was that 'off its rocker' 18z GFS run that picked it up on Sunday at day 10ish...

Edited by CreweCold
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