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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
17 minutes ago, Vikos said:

 

945 massive storm for german coast.... that'll be very serious, among all those snow whispering btw

 

German coast? What???

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Just as an example of why the 18z GFs reminds me of the 91 outbreak, take a look at this and compare it to 384hrs:

CFSR_1_1991012918_1.png

The deep cold was still around 7 days away at this point.

Even so, this run is utter trash and is rather at odds with the ECM ensembles which have a totally different pattern. I'd trust the ECM to handle the Arctic better ANY day of the week.

There was a snowfall down here in Bristol two days after that chart. Cold was very marginal with 1C max during the day, but snowed and settled nonetheless.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

German coast? What???

He's probably talking about storm surges / high tides.

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

central England  short ensembles   whats interesting is the snow row for Thr-Fri   half going for snow  which indicates the low sliding?.   

image.png

Edited by weirpig
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Posted
  • Location: aberdeen 65m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter Sun in summer
  • Location: aberdeen 65m

After reading the article in a previous post about the Govt shutdown in the US and the problems it's causing there for the GFS and the parallel why we trust it's output at all for the duration of the shutdown.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Just now, weirpig said:

central England  short ensembles   whats interesting is the snow row for Thr-Fri   half going for snow  which indicates the low sliding?.   

And the para is sliding the low on the 18z . I think ?? Someone clarify please . 

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

He's probably talking about storm surges / high tides.

Understand that, but at this distance away, and the various other countries involved, it's a bit of a mad point to pick out of a singular model run!!

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
2 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

im no map reader but last time i looked Germany was land locked with no coast..

Hmmm. It's a wonder you're into a geographical subject like weather...

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

GFS ensembles also seem to have lost the plot as well and are pumping out dartboard lows all over the place, multiple runs going 930mbs and some even deeper, as I said yesterday, sub 930mbs takes you into the top 15 deepest EVER recorded pressures in the NW Atlantic.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

im no map reader but last time i looked Germany was land locked with no coast..

Most of it is land locked but it has got a small area of coast to the North sliced by its border with Denmark.

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

He's probably talking about storm surges / high tides.

exactly this! IF it comes anyway...

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Just about every 18z GFS ensembles powers up the vortex and has either a +ve AO, or a super +ve AO....

Got to think something has gone whack with this set of runs, for it to be SO different from other runs is not giving a lot of confidence.

 

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone
  • Location: Maidstone

Awwww my post has been removed lol.  Anyway every time i look at the GFS i think this can't be right.  The lack of human correction over the pond must be having an impact so i am more confused than ever.

However I can't totally dismiss it so I am still not shouting about any snow chances to my friends Imby but am convinced we are going to get quite cold.

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Most of it is land locked but it has got a small area of coast to the North sliced by its border with Denmark.

NOAA_1_1962021618_1.png

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea_flood_of_1962

 

GFSOPEU18_216_1.png

Edited by Vikos
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

On this note, I wish you goodnight 

183297E9-EE1D-434D-BCF6-729D589F17F5.thumb.gif.73c310a1590b2e0c66c1c417e7899654.gif

STUNNING!

Close to -20c  

Bloody stunning . I really hope this is right and the gfs stops playing stupid .

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Some scatter there.

image.thumb.png.8681e76f1bed8ff5ba1d8e9c8a76a7b9.png

I was actually exspecting worse . So are take that as a positive. 

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