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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To be honest you would think it unlikely that this cold was going to last the whole of Feb to be honest, the strat vortex is now reforming at 10mb on the extended range, at some point it is going to downwell you would think.

There was a very slow downwelling with the reversal so who is to say that the reforming will not also take time to come into effect.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

No pub run special, its to flat.

May drop the bomb as per usual runs but apart from that its woeful.

Take note GFS lovers- T96 its a fair chunk away, 120 even worse...

Yes,already gearing up that bomb southern tip of Greenland

18z 144 v 12z 150

gfs-0-144.thumb.png.341d7bd387120df44d9f6b2ab15d5e02.pnggfs-0-150.thumb.png.15feaf0cc5e91470a5f84a16e2d275c9.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Absolute garbage from GFS, here T138 vs ECM 12z T144:

image.thumb.jpg.202c73aebb837c85e4763ac061246a9d.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.f223a4be20828c9778deedc982677c41.jpg

I refer you to my earlier post about verification stats post US government shutdown.  

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Stonker!

I see the ones earlier for temps but have we got the pressure chars ? Cheers 

EDIT - cheers bullseye

Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I was just going to type i feel GFS 18Z is looking better ..

Yep, it is looking slightly less flat by t156.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Norrance said:

There was a very slow downwelling with the reversal so who is to say that the reforming will not also take time to come into effect.

True and that glosea run of average to slightly above could still mean half feb v.cold and the rest v.mild which would still be good anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
5 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

Consistent as shown below - Greenland high will be way forward as oppose to Scandi high going by weeklies.

 

500za_week2_bg.png.1d83230dcce9d7a3197f1f5f7ae5b933.png

500za_week3_bg.png.0ac93398ce23e174765a5a357b99e774.png

500za_week4_bg.png.d9a5c9e0b3f359c2d9954d75edf2dda7.png

Cracking! We must also remember that this is from this morning's run which was slightly less favourable for cold in the extended.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

We really need a similarly wintry ecm 00z suite in the morning to settle nerves.

Unlikely as the 00z runs always seem to be a downgrade!

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Well the GFS is starting to look better at day 7, better angle of attack from the northwest.  There is some similarity to the ECM at 168 in our neck of the woods as well, though the NH profile is quite different

GFS image.thumb.png.3c8906fbf74e6c99f6cb4b35c7c688ba.png  ECM image.thumb.png.404cddc41aa29a3714ec8fe1f9694714.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL

not always? to be honest I normally find Model runs after day 6/7 always seem to go wrong at weekends , and correct Monday, but that might be just me ... Slidergate continues for Friday so tomorrow should help with that as we be into 72 hours...... was supposed to quote @dkdazzle

Edited by BlackburnChris
dodgy phone
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Is it me or are people jumping the gun here,anything before day 10 is a bonus to me.things will get interesting from day 9>10+

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Absolute garbage from GFS, here T138 vs ECM 12z T144:

image.thumb.jpg.202c73aebb837c85e4763ac061246a9d.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.f223a4be20828c9778deedc982677c41.jpg

I refer you to my earlier post about verification stats post US government shutdown.  

GFS starting to remind me of the old BOM model, maybe with the US shutdown they have replaced it with the BOM program and what limited funds that are available are being used to get the new GFS para up to spec.:oldgrin:

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Farvel Danmark! 

image.thumb.png.3b05f763003f367f15b18027cd09b259.png

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

The 18z is at least agreeing with binging that low pressure down near the UK at 192hrs. Its no where near as good as the ECM as there is way more energy flowing around, but its at least a step in the right direction.

MASSIVE difference though in the Arctic, that's a joke of a difference!

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury

Yep its a belter   OK

Actually it might slip Eastwards too quickly 

I'm not complaining though , its a step in the right direction IMO

Edited by Banbury
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

London eps graph will be impressive later 

here in the Home Counties, ave maxes below 2c from day 9 thru 15 ......

Yes, ens mean max temps for my area - below freezing for several days at the end - with the spread on the low side of the minima as low as -15c.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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