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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
8 minutes ago, Skyraker said:

What are the 850s? Dam? Dew points? Wet bulb?

 

You don’t know do you?... of course not. Idiocy.

In all fairness for the south that is an accurate description, even for the Midlands there is snow followed by sleety stuff away from high ground. Its only N.England, NW England and Scotland that get a decent snowfall that stays as snow throughout.

ECM ensembles range from moderately snowy for the north, to nationwide deep snow lasting over a week (like 6-12 inches near enough nationwide, higher locally). Not many runs have little-no snow.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
34 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

So happy to see such joy in here tonight..

GFS ---

tenor.gif

 

What are you talking about? The GFS has been showing the diving PV displacement for ages, the only bit it diverged on was this upcoming slider. Please explain NWS 

 BFTP 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Bit of humor Fred

 

Ahhh and American spelling too!  Gotcha ??

steam you say....need some cold for that to show

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

What really makes me hope that that ECM superstorm doesn't fully manifest, is the number of high-voltage power lines it would bring down; a combination of very strong winds and heavy sleet/wet snow can over-stress the wires very quickly...

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Indeed - the Icon has the most acute angle of the slider - which for me increases the long term cold potential as the form horse in this scenario is 'persistence' so if the form horse is westward corrections & more acute angle this serves us well for the following 8-9 days...

Bingo!!

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We will see if the next eps suite is as wintry but this one provides a very positive snow total by day 10

no way would you take this as anything more than indicative but it’s impressive with 5cms + across most of the uk

 

5D6D5E1A-FF1A-4C22-A527-51CE2C9D2CC3.thumb.jpeg.91a31496936862868b8515caaf7677a8.jpeg

Is that a mean snow chart Nick ??

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
58 minutes ago, stratty said:

The greatest snowfall I have ever seen and lowest temps, with not so low heights:

image.thumb.png.80f51d6d4244484d2e4233c1f31378e3.pngimage.thumb.png.e844e160e4c224d9368132e46d9abd8e.png

Definitely some similarities here! ;)

image.thumb.png.334bf62f7cc198da0f8155890a37b0f3.pngimage.thumb.png.874c30854d1d10f38fc501e37baaaeb8.png

Yes Stratty, I was also thinking along the lines of Dec 1981, epic month of very low temps and snow but upper air not particularly cold.

As for Feb, well something more like this followed by an easterly from SIBERIA!:oldgrin:

 

gens-12-1-384.png

gens-12-0-384.png

gens-20-1-384.png

gens-20-0-384.png

qrp5PYN.png

34SthS4.png

Edited by snowray
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2 hours ago, chris55 said:

Look at the amount of energy heading down into the euro trough (not to be taken as a forecast ) though does remind me of dec 2010! A large chunk of  the PV effectively taking up residence over France :0 (SSW influenced I should think)

3AB09D38-F894-4974-B5EB-74B1EEB24C62.thumb.png.1ccb95130ca2eb877ba2c9e6aa8b3a80.png

I hope you are correct, but is there not another shortwave South of Greenland which would prevent a high pressure link up (unlike Dec 2010) and allow warmer air to infiltrate as the shortwave moves east, then southeast towards UK  / IRE and put us back to where we are going to be over the next 3-4 days?

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Just now, bluearmy said:

Ens mean total snow next ten days 

There must be some right dumpings then on quite a few ens . That’s a very good mean for day 10 . Hopefully it keeps repeating. 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

For me the PV displacement is very very much the form horse....it’s how cold can we get it....continental air in situ pre diver would be very good indeed

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
3 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

1080 Greenie surface high from JMA.:oldgrin:

 

J192-21.thumb.GIF.07c9a26a345d7fc0da7fcb403296fc4a.GIF

Yes, it's been known to completely overblow these before.  Good ridge there, and a little earlier than ECM, good run.  Have to watch that storm though, very unusual as others have said.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

1080 Greenie surface high from JMA.:oldgrin:

 

J192-21.thumb.GIF.07c9a26a345d7fc0da7fcb403296fc4a.GIF

That's on an ice platteau and always shows higher heights cos of this

need them orange and reds to pump up there.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
1 hour ago, kold weather said:

Yeah the wind flow coming from the channel is nearly always the death knell for events south of the M4 in these set-ups, I can't remember a single event like that bringing snow in any of locations in the south I've lived in in the last 20 years...but then again always a time for firsts, and you've got to think with even a slight bit of height you'd be getting snow even in the south.ven

As you said the odds of it coming in quite as hot as the ECM says is low, but 955mbs isn't so deep as to be improbable, even if it was a little unlikely.

It's actually closer than I initially thought on the ECM 12z; a rain-snow mix across the far-south on Weds and that's with hardly any precipitation (suspiciously so!); heavier and more prolonged showers would likely have shown as snow as happens to be the case across Devon away from the immediate coasts.

Shows what we're in the game for should we go down the vigorous deep cold trough route.

FV3 12z has raised an alternative of note though; if the low from the subtropics moves more N instead of NE then the route forward markedly and something even colder and snowier results (except for the windchill which would be stronger in the deep cold trough scenario). Something to watch out for in the ensembles.

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6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Absolute stonker of a set of ECM ensembles tonight. For the 24th January, 42 out of 51 members are certainly cold enough for snow in most places. Up from 27 out of 51 this morning!! 

What's noticeable is pretty good agreement on the pattern - deep trough just SE of the UK. In the sweet spot! But will it stay there? 

Hi MWB whats the consistency of pressure depths of that low-

just feels over blown....

Expecting a watered down version

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Just catching up, wow what an evening so far.  That ECM Mean really is spectacular......

image.thumb.png.3fe762cc0cd386d179c69a165f6a7ec6.png

Not much scatter on the graph either, with the Op above the mean! 

image.thumb.png.424b5a75c99c5ecb1e76bd230652b24b.png

Then the ECM weeklies gave us 4 charts showing well below average temperatures, absolutely brilliant stuff.  Just remains for the GFS to royally pee on our chips and send us all to bed with the hump!  Come on pub run, time to join the fun.

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

That's on an ice platteau and always shows higher heights cos of this

need them orange and reds to pump up there.

It is the ice plateau, but importantly, the deeper purples have been drained away, for me it kind of shows a nice gateway for real Greeny heights.

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